CDU battle between Soeder and Laschet before the election

LONDON – It would never be easy to find a successor to Angela Merkel, the German chancellor of the last 16 years. But the race has become even more complicated, with two rivals vying for the Conservative ticket.

The obvious Conservative candidate in the next German election would be Armin Laschet, head of state of North Rhine-Westphalia. He was elected leader of Merkel’s CDU party in January and says he wants to modernize Germany.

It wasn’t until Markus Soeder, of the Bavarian sister party, the CSU, threw his hat in the ring. Soeder is arguably the most popular man in German politics.

“It has always been clear that the race for Angela Merkel’s succession will be long and will not follow a straight line. It may not be a box office film but rather a political series that deserves excessive viewing,” he says. Carsten Brzeski, chief economist at ING Germany, said in a note on Tuesday.

When it comes to federal elections, the CDU and the CSU act together, so they will only field one candidate.

CDU lawmakers will discuss who it should be this Tuesday and hope to make a decision this week. But it will be a difficult choice between his party leader and someone as popular as Soeder.

Elisabeth Motschmann, a CDU MP, told CNBC’s Squawk Box Europe on Tuesday that she supports Soeder.

“For this hard work, I think Markus Soeder will do his best and is able to win,” he said. “I don’t think (Laschet) is tough enough and can’t decide as a Soeder.”

Jens Suedekum, a professor at the Dusseldorf Institute of Competition Economics, told CNBC via email that “what characterizes Soeder is its unique degree of flexibility, you might call it opportunism when it comes to political principles.” .

The German Conservative Party has seen its popularity drop since January, when the coronavirus pandemic began to worsen in the country.

Finally it is established to harmonize the blocking rules in an effort to contain a third wave of cases. This comes after the population expressed frustration at the difference in rules from region to region since the initial outbreak of Covid-19.

But things might be about to look for the Conservatives.

“Once the official CDU / CSU election campaign starts strong and vaccines increase, things will get better,” Naz Masraff, director of consulting firm Eurasia Group, said in a statement on Tuesday.

However, he stressed that Laschet is likely to have more difficulty consolidating the CDU / CSU voter base and reclaiming Green Party centrist voters.

“He will also have to work hard to change his image as a weak and wrong leader who has not adopted such a strong line on the pandemic or on corruption in the party ranks, as many Germans expected,” Masraff added.

Whoever the CDU chooses to be its current candidate could have an impact on what kind of coalition will emerge in September.

“Laschet’s candidacy would benefit the Greens and Social Democrats. It would also increase the chances of a green chancellor after the September election,” Masraff said.

The CDU / CSU currently leads the polls, with around 27% of the vote; the greens, however, are gaining ground with around 21%. The party with the most votes will lead the coalition negotiations after the September elections.

Christian Schulz, chief economist at Citi, told CNBC’s Squawk Box Europe on Tuesday that as the September election approaches, investors will study what the new government might mean for the area’s fiscal policy. ‘euro.

He said the two Conservative candidates “say very little about what they want to do,” but added, “Soeder believes he has more Eurosceptic instincts, so that would probably be the worst outcome for markets at least in the short term.”

The yield on the 10-year German bond has risen since Soeder’s announcement on Sunday, indicating some concerns about political uncertainty.