Biden has rightly said in previous prepared comments, including a speech on Monday, that Al Qaeda has “degraded” Afghanistan; the terrorist group is widely considered to be substantially weakened by the 20-year war led by the United States. But clearly Biden went too far on Friday when he said – despite offering impromptu answers to reporters ’questions – that the group does not exist at all in Afghanistan.
Colin Clarke, a senior researcher at the Soufan Center, a nonprofit that studies global security issues, said Biden’s comment was so “clearly false” that he wondered if it was an accidental slip of the tongue. . Clarke said there is no real debate over whether Al Qaeda is still in Afghanistan, although there is debate over how many members there are.
The United Nations reported in June that, according to information from UN member states, Al Qaeda “resides in at least 15 Afghan provinces, mainly in the eastern, southern and southeastern regions.” The report estimates that al-Qaeda members, including members of a group of regional affiliates, are among “several dozen to 500 people.”
Although this sentence in the report did not explicitly say whether all these people were believed to live in Afghanistan, the version of the 2020 UN report estimated that there were “between 400 and 600 armed agents” for to al-Qaeda in Afghanistan in particular. .
Kirby said on Friday after Biden’s statements: “What we believe is that there is not a significant enough presence to deserve a threat to our homeland, as it was on September 11, 20 years ago. “. He said he did not have an estimate of the number of al-Qaeda fighters, but the administration does not believe it is “exorbitantly high.”
Asked about Biden’s claim, a White House official who commented on condition of anonymity said in an email: “As the president reiterated today, we have achieved our goals of going to Afghanistan first. place 20 years ago, bringing Osama Bin Laden to justice and decimating Al Qaeda to the point that it already posed a threat to the homeland. ”
What the US and the UN have said
As part of the Trump administration’s February 2020 peace deal with the Taliban, the group pledged to sever ties with Al Qaeda. But the Taliban did not follow.
“The Taliban and al-Qaeda remain closely aligned and show no signs of breaking ties. Member States do not report any material changes in this relationship, which has deepened as a result of personal marriage ties and · Shared collaboration in the struggle, now consolidated generational ties, “said the UN report published in June.
The report also said that “Al Qaeda’s own short-term strategy is considered to maintain its traditional safe haven in Afghanistan for al Qaeda’s core leadership.” And the report said that an al Qaeda affiliate, al Qaeda in the Indian subcontinent, “is said to be such an” organic “or essential part of the insurgency that it would be difficult, if not impossible, to separate him from his Taliban allies. “
In October 2020, Afghan intelligence reported that its security forces had killed an alleged al-Qaeda leader who had been on the FBI’s list of most wanted terrorists. The following month, Afghan officials reported killing another reputed al-Qaeda figure in the country.
A U.S. Attorney General’s report to Congress, released publicly this week, said that during the period that began in April 2021 and ended in late June, the U.S. Intelligence Agency The Defense found that “as in previous quarters, al-Qaeda provided nominal military training and support to the Taliban without directly claiming credits for attacks, and the Taliban continued to provide safe haven for al-Qaeda fighters despite publicly denying the presence. of the terrorist group in Afghanistan “.
In April, Lt. Gen. Scott Berrier, director of the Defense Intelligence Agency, told Congress that the al-Qaeda Indian subcontinent affiliate had “less than 200 members throughout the South Asia with the majority located in Afghanistan ”and which played only as a“ marginal ”. role in the Taliban-led insurgency in Afghanistan.
The level of threat
Berrier told Congress that “there was little discernible activity” outside the subsidiary in late 2020 and “throughout 2021,” the group will likely not be able to carry out terrorist attacks. Instead, the group will strengthen its relationship with the Taliban. “
Clarke, of the Soufan Center, said the threat to the U.S. from al-Qaeda in Afghanistan “is probably minimal right now compared to where it has been.” But he argued that the level of threat “will definitely increase over time,” mostly because the United States will have much less intelligence capacity in the country after its withdrawal.
In June, Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin told Congress that “it would take possibly two years” for terrorist groups such as al-Qaeda and ISIS to regenerate in Afghanistan and pose a threat to the U.S. homeland or the United States. his allies. General Mark Milley, chairman of the joint cabinet states, said the “risk would obviously increase” if the Afghan government collapsed or the Afghan security forces were disbanded.
Both things have happened now. Kirby told reporters Monday that Austin believes “in light of recent events” a “reassessment of the possibilities of reconstituting terrorist networks in Afghanistan” is warranted.
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