BEIJING (AP) – On the U.S. exit from Afghanistan, China has been held back with long-held hopes to reduce the influence of a geopolitical rival in what it considers its garden.
However, he is also deeply concerned that the retreat itself could lead to risk and instability in this later garden (Central Asia) and even that it could spill its narrow, remote border into China itself and the region. strongly Muslim northwestern Xinjiang.
The Taliban’s acquisition could certainly present political and economic opportunities for China, including the development of Afghanistan’s vast mineral wealth, and Beijing has said it is ready to help rebuild the impoverished nation. But stability will be needed to reap most of these benefits, and the immediate result of the U.S. withdrawal has been more instability, no less.
“I think Beijing will interpret the narrative of American ease and the decline of the Empire, all as proof of why Beijing will be a better steward for the Eurasian center,” said Raffaello Pantucci, an expert in the region. of the Royal United Services Institute in London. “But I’m not really sure he sees a lot of huge benefits for Beijing right now.”
Like many nations, China is concerned about the terrorist risk of a Taliban-led Afghanistan. Beijing has repeatedly told the Taliban that the country cannot become a breeding ground for militants to launch attacks in Xinjiang, in the same way that Osama bin Laden used it as a base to prepare for his attacks. 9/11 against the US.
A closer threat may be the overflow of militancy in Pakistan and Central Asia, where China has invested heavily and tried to build alliances.
“The Afghan Taliban have promised to secede from international terrorist forces, but we have not yet seen how they will do so because they are not officially in power,” said Li Wei, a retired international security expert from the China Institute of Contemporary International Relations.
The Taliban could be an incongruous partner for China, as its religion-based philosophy is diametrically opposed to Beijing’s view of atheist government under the Communist Party that puts social stability and economic development above all else. . This, however, has not prevented China’s pragmatic leaders from ultimately reaching them.
At the end of last month, Foreign Minister Wang Yi hosted a delegation led by Taliban political leader Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, and expressed China’s hopes for stability and an end to violence and terrorist threats.
Chinese officials and state media have been critical of what they call the “hasty” withdrawal of the United States from Afghanistan. “The rapid victory of the Taliban is embarrassing in the United States, it breaks the image and arrogance,” said a headline in the state-run newspaper Global Times.
Despite the rhetoric, Wang told U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken that China was willing to work with the U.S. to promote the “soft landing” of the Afghan issue.
However, he added that “the United States cannot, on the one hand, deliberately curb and suppress China to harm China’s legitimate rights and interests, and on the other hand rely on China to provide support and coordination.” .
President Joe Biden has said leaving Afghanistan will prepare the United States to face greater potential threats, including from China.
“Our true strategic competitors, China and Russia, would love nothing more than the United States to continue to divert billions of dollars, resources and attention to stabilize Afghanistan indefinitely,” he said this week.
Yin Gang, a Middle East Studies researcher at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said the two countries share a common interest in a stable Afghanistan.
“If Afghanistan achieves stability, it will make the United States look good and China will be invited to participate in the reconstruction,” Yin said.
China has pursued commercial enterprises in Afghanistan, but the prospects for these projects to come to fruition do not seem closer than the last twenty years of the US presence.
A consortium led by China Metallurgical Group Corp. offered $ 3 billion to develop what is one of the world’s largest copper deposits in Mes Aynak, also promising to build a power plant, railroad and other infrastructure. Years later, work has not yet begun, mainly due to insurgent activity in Logar province.
National Petroleum Corp., a state-owned company in China, suspended oil drilling in the Amu Darya Basin due to a delay in signing a transit agreement with Uzbekistan to allow crude oil transportation to China. The Afghan government later overturned the drilling agreement.
China has invested heavily in Pakistan, which borders Afghanistan, in hopes of expanding its belt and road initiative to expand China’s overseas reach by improving trade routes, but Afghanistan it seems far from ready to serve as a nexus for this chain.
China’s broad economic interests in Pakistan and Central Asia could be clearly affected by any terrorist resurgence in Afghanistan, said Henry Storey, a Melbourne, Australia-based political risk analyst.
“At the same time, China is not committed to participating with any grounding, as it does not want to repeat the mistakes of the United States nor can it be distracted from more urgent issues such as Taiwan,” Storey said, referring to China’s island claims as its own and threatens to invade it.
Chinese scholars echoed the government’s line that China will not engage in Afghanistan’s internal affairs, regardless of how the situation develops. In a briefing this week, Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian said China would give aid to Afghanistan to its extent.
Although Chinese media “hawks” have portrayed events in Afghanistan as a victory for Beijing and a loss for Washington, this reflects “a false sense of confidence,” said Meia Nouwens, a Chinese expert on International Institute for Strategic Studies
China may not be as interested in exploiting the U.S. withdrawal as an opportunity to relate economically to Afghanistan as some have suggested, he said, noting that Beijing has curbed its investment in foreign infrastructure.
The question of how to safeguard the security of Chinese investment and personnel also arises on a large scale.
“For now … Beijing will do the same as most other countries,” he said. “Wait to see how things develop in Afghanistan.”
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Associated Press writer David Rising contributed to this story from Bangkok.