China is testing Biden with the South China Sea tactic that deceived Obama

Source: National Task Force-West Philippines Sea via AP

According to Beijing’s official view, the Philippines has no reason to worry about Chinese fishing vessels sitting along a disputed reef in the South China Sea.

The ships, which were initially hundreds, were simply “protecting themselves from the wind” and the Philippines should see the situation in a “rational light, ”Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying said on March 22 when the news broke.

Two weeks later, more than 40 boats are still at Whitsun Reef and the statements are becoming more specific. The Philippine Department of Foreign Affairs on Monday warned China would issue daily diplomatic protests as long as the “maritime militia” remained in place, using the same language as the U.S. to describe the fleet stationed in an area known as Julian Felipe Reef in the Philippines and Niu’e Jiao in China.

“If your goal is to seize a maritime space and an atoll without fighting for it, it’s a brilliant tactic, if dishonest,” he said. Carl Schuster, former Chief Operating Officer of the US Pacific Joint Command Intelligence Center. “Only professional sailors know it’s a lie: no one ‘protects’ their boats in a storm zone weeks before a storm. If they really are commercial vessels, it’s costing hundreds, if not thousands of dollars a day, to make them stay well tied ”.

All in all, it is starting to look more and more like Beijing is polling whether President Joe Biden will take any action after committing to working with allies in the region to deter Chinese assertiveness. Teodoro Locsin, Secretary of Foreign Affairs of the Philippines guilty the Obama administration for not stopping China for a similar period incident in 2012 in Scarborough Shoal, a forerunner of President Xi Jinping’s move to build military facilities across the South China Sea.

“It’s a test to see what the administration is willing to do,” said Schuster, who is now an adjunct professor in the military diplomacy and science program at the Pacific University of Hawaii. “The reaction of the United States will determine the next test. Right now, everything we’ve done is more rhetorical than substantive. “

Last month the United States said it was on the side of the Philippines while accusing China of using a “maritime militia to intimidate, provoke and threaten other nations.” Asked about Chinese relations at a press conference last month, Biden he said his administration “will hold China accountable for following the rules” in the South China Sea and elsewhere.

A big problem is how to calibrate the answer. The use of commercial fishing vessels from China is tantamount to a “gray zone” tactic that allows Beijing to deny anything that is missing. Sending an aircraft carrier or other warships near the reef runs the risk of sounding like an overreaction that would make the United States look like the aggressor.

On the other hand, doing nothing might seem weak. In recent years, the United States has intensified the challenges of Chinese sovereignty in the waters, increasing the frequency of so-called freedom of navigation operations around the disputed territory. The Biden administration also reaffirmed that the U.S.-Philippines defense treaty covers any attack on the South China Sea, a clarification made under President Donald Trump that came after decades of official ambiguity.

Another major complication for Biden is Philippine leader Rodrigo Duterte, who has undermined the alliance while maintaining closer ties with Beijing.

“As long as President Duterte is in power, there are very limited options for the Navy,” said Rommel Ong, a retired Rear Admiral in the Philippine Navy who is now a professor at the Faculty of Government at Ateneo University in Manila. “Without any coherent strategy, it is limited to filing diplomatic protests and pronouncements against China through social media.”

The Philippine statement on Monday used one of the strongest languages ​​to date, according to which a 2016 international arbitration ruling made it clear that China has no historical rights to fish in the area, which belongs to the exclusive economic zone of the United States. Southeast Asian country. He also denounced the Chinese embassy for criticizing Defense Secretary Delfin Lorenzana, who said it’s been a long time and the ships have no reason to stay. “I’m not a fool,” he said over the weekend.

“Irrational Emotions”