China-Russia cooperation could be Biden’s biggest challenge

President Joe Biden faces a nightmare scenario of global consequences: intensifying Sino-Russian strategic cooperation aimed at undermining American influence and increasing Biden’s efforts to rally democratic allies.

It is the most significant and unrecognized proof of Biden’s leadership to date: it could be the decisive challenge of his presidency.

Last week, Russia and China simultaneously stepped up their separate military activities and threats to the sovereignty of Ukraine and Taiwan, respectively, countries with vibrant independence facing Moscow and Beijing, but at the heart of their interests. of the United States and its allies in its regions.

Even if the actions of Moscow and Beijing do not involve a military invasion of either country, and most experts believe it is unlikely, the scale and intensity of military movements will require immediate attention. U.S. and allied officials dare not dismiss the certainty that Russia and China share intelligence or the growing likelihood that they will coordinate more and more actions and strategies.

“That [Russian] the build-up has reached the point that it could provide the basis for a limited military incursion, “William J. Burns, director of Intel’s Central Agency, told U.S. Senate Intelligence Committee this week. . ” the allies must be taken very seriously. “

On China, the U.S. Intelligence Community’s Annual Threat Assessment said, “China is trying to exploit doubts about the U.S. commitment to the region, undermining Taiwan’s democracy, and extending the influence of Beijing “. The media coverage of the report on Russia’s “growing strategic cooperation with China to achieve its goals” was lost.

Seen independently, the Chinese and Russian challenges would be a handful for any U.S. president. If China and Russia acted in a more cohesive and coherent way, you have a more consistent narrative than the plot of any Tom Clancy novel. It is a scenario for which the United States and its allies do not have a common strategy or even an understanding.

For anyone doubting Sino-Russian ambitions, one of my favorite places to read Chinese tea leaves is the Global Times, often a spokesperson for Beijing’s leadership. In an editorial late last month, under the headline “China-Russia ties deepen as the United States and allies clash,” he wrote: “The most influential bilateral relationship in Eurasia is the partnership. China-Russia global coordination strategy for a new era “.

In a short-veiled warning to Japan and South Korea, he wrote: “China and Russia understand the weight of their ties … To be honest, no country in the region can be alone against China or Russia, and even less to fight the powers at the same time. It would be disastrous for any country that tends to confront China and Russia through alliance with the US. “

Asked last October about the possibility of a formal military alliance with China, Russian leader Vladimir Putin said: “Theoretically it is very possible.”

In any case, there is nothing theoretical about military escalations in Ukraine and Taiwan.

Last week, Russia accumulated the largest concentration of troops on the Ukrainian border since the annexation of Crimea in 2014. Ukrainian government officials say Russian President Vladimir Putin has brought more than 40,000 troops to the eastern border of Ukraine for “combat training exercises” for a period of two weeks.

At the same time, China has increased its military overflight raids on Taiwan’s air defense zone to unprecedented levels, as it has flown more than 250 departures near the island this year. Last Monday, the Chinese military sent 25 warplanes to Taiwan, a record since Taiwan began revealing figures last year.

The Biden administration has responded to Putin this week with the carrot of a summit meeting and the new sanctions stick. On Tuesday, Biden called Putin and indicated he did not want to raise tensions with the leader who agreed he was a “killer” just a month ago.

On Wednesday, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken sided with NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg when they condemned Russia’s military buildup. The strongest disapproval of the Biden administration came on Thursday when it announced new economic sanctions against 38 Russian entities accused of electoral interference and cyberattacks, expelled ten diplomats and introduced measures banning US financial institutions from trading in debts and bonds of the Russian state recently issued.

China’s incursions into Taiwan came shortly after the State Department issued guidelines to loosen the rules for U.S. government officials participating in Taiwan. Blinken has said the administration is concerned about China’s “increasingly aggressive actions” and is committed to ensuring that Taiwan “has the capacity to defend itself.” The United States demonstrated its support for Taiwan on Wednesday by sending an unofficial delegation consisting of a former U.S. senator and two former U.S. undersecretaries of state to Taiwan.

This great drama of power unfolding could not have come at a worse time for the Biden administration, whose officials will not even serve their 100-day term until April 30. Still, this is probably the point of Russian leader Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping, as they seek to gain benefits before Biden can secure a safer foot through policy reviews and providing key leadership positions.

These real-world events also complicate the carefully established plans by the Biden administration to methodically sequence its actions, reasonably arguing that American renewal is a prerequisite for effective global leadership.

Biden’s goal is to suppress Covid-19 through accelerated vaccine distribution, increase economic momentum and competitiveness through $ 4 trillion in incentives and infrastructure spending, and restore relations with key allies, a goal reflected in Biden’s meeting this week with Japanese Prime Minister Suga. Yoshihide.

The Biden administration is also facing several other foreign policy challenges simultaneously, ranging from the president’s announcement this week that he would withdraw U.S. troops from Afghanistan on 9/11 and efforts to restart nuclear talks with Iran despite last Sunday’s attack on Tehran’s nuclear enrichment. installation.

That’s a lot for any new president. However, Biden’s skillful approach to the growing combined challenge of Russia and China will shape our era.

Frederick Kempe is a best-selling author, award-winning journalist, and president and CEO of the Atlantic Council, one of the most influential think tanks in the United States on global issues. He worked for The Wall Street Journal for more than 25 years as a foreign correspondent, editorial assistant and as the longest-serving editor of the European edition of the newspaper. His latest book – “Berlin 1961: Kennedy, Khrushchev and the Most Dangerous Place on Earth” – was a New York Times bestseller and has been published in more than a dozen languages. Follow him on Twitter @FredKempe and subscribe here to Inflection Points, his look every Saturday at last week’s top stories and trends.

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