China’s non-interference could hurt China, the analyst says

A political risk analyst claimed that China’s “stop doing” approach to Myanmar’s military coup could harm the Asian giant’s strategic and economic interests in the Southeast Asian country.

In contrast to the strong condemnation and sanctions of Western powers, including the United States and the European Union, China’s response to the February 1 coup and the violence that followed has been more muted. Beijing has been cautious and emphasizes the importance of stability.

“But while China may be happy to deal with those in power in Naypyidaw, it is becoming increasingly clear the chain of events that the coup unleashed could threaten their interests,” said researcher Gareth Price. senior of the Asia-Pacific program of British think tank Chatham House, said in a March note.

Naypyidaw is the capital of Myanmar and one of the hotspots for protests against the coup. Security forces have used increasingly violent tactics to suppress the protests, killing more than 550 civilians, Reuters reported.

Protesters, outraged by Beijing’s apparent lack of concern over the dead in the protests, attacked Chinese-run factories in Myanmar last month, the Associated Press reported. In response, Beijing urged Myanmar to “ensure the safety of life and property of Chinese companies and personnel.”

“China’s frustration with the risks facing its economic interests indicates that the coup has become an important test for the already complex Myanmar-China relationship,” said Kaho Yu, a senior analyst at risk consultancy Verisk. Maplecroft, in a March report.

China is a major investor in Myanmar, a border country in Southeast Asia that shares one of its borders. Myanmar is also an important part of President Xi Jinping’s belt and road initiative.

“Overall, Beijing expects investment in Myanmar to contribute to its security, trade and energy stability in its neighborhood,” Yu said.

“China argues that an economic slowdown in its neighborhood would cause social instability and security threats, which in turn would threaten the political stability of Chinese border provinces like Yunnan,” the analyst added.

The latest available data from Myanmar’s Investment and Business Administration Directorate showed that China’s approved foreign investment was around $ 139.4 million from October 2020 to January this year. Myanmar’s fiscal year begins in October.

Approved Chinese investments were only surpassed by those in Singapore, which totaled about $ 378.3 million in the same period, the data were displayed.

In terms of trade, China is Myanmar’s main export destination and the main source of imports to the Southeast Asian country.

But Myanmar’s importance to China extends beyond the economy, Chatham House Price said.

“Oil and gas pipelines crossing Myanmar diversify China’s supply sources and help prevent the use of the Straits of Malacca, a hot spot for piracy,” he said. “And the development of ports and land connectivity between China and Myanmar also helps facilitate a greater Chinese presence in the Indian Ocean.”

Beijing has in the past cultivated cordial ties with the Myanmar army, as well as with the civilian government of de facto leader Aung San Suu Kyi, Yu noted. In recent years, international pressure on Myanmar due to the Rohingya crisis has brought the country closer to China, he added.

According to reports, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said last month that “no matter how the situation in Myanmar changes, China’s determination to promote Sino-Myanmar relations does not waver.” larà “.

But any feeling on the part of China that it remains Myanmar’s main partner regardless of who is in charge can be a “bad judgment,” Price said.

“If the military is forced to retreat, it could result in a more pronounced inclination against China, which will threaten (China’s) strategic interests,” he said.

Instead, Beijing could help end the coup, a move that could threaten its interests in Myanmar in the short term, but that will likely advance them in the long run, Price said. Myanmar generals have no intention of ceding power, but will fight to hold it without China’s support, he said.

“As its global role expands, China should learn to differentiate between various types of authoritarian government and judge its response accordingly,” Price said.

“China needs to be aware that a ‘one-size-fits-all’ policy of non-interference will not win many friends, and anyone who wins is likely to be the least healthy type.”