The Clemson Tigers finished last season with one of the most historic lines in college basketball, eliminating North Carolina tar heels for the first time on Chapel Hill. UNC is better in 2020-21, but so is Clemson, who enters his latest ACC foray as a top 20 team. Our experts took a look at this game and other outstanding competitions of the weekend, while shedding light on the current state of the race for the 2021 Wood Prize and some of the recent outings among the university hoops.
(Editor’s note: Clemson in North Carolina was postponed Friday)
Jump to the score predictions for the best games of the weekend
It took 60 games and 93 years to beat Clemson at Chapel Hill, and it looks like there’s a reasonable chance the Tigers ranked in the 19th spot will go two straight on Saturday (19:00 ET, ESPN). How do you think this Tar Heels team will position itself in March? Give fans a reason to think it may still be a relevant North Carolina team. (Editor’s note: Clemson in North Carolina was adjourned Friday).
Myron Medcalf, senior college basketball writer: I think this template will still play its way to an eight or eight seed, but I don’t know if it will move forward. These tar heels, which take a lot of offensive rebounds but can’t do much with these second-chance chances because they can’t shoot, seem vulnerable to the first round of upheavals in this crazy year.
With Caleb Love on the floor, they have produced just 92 points for every 100 possessions and have billed bills on nearly a fifth of their possessions, by hooplens.com. If they fail to figure out the guard point, they will have more problems in the coming months. Relevance? Well, they still have a lot of former five-star recruits and a top 20 defensive unit. If offensive efficiency improves, they will be able to win games in March. May be.
Jeff Borzello, college basketball insider: Upon entering the season, my biggest concern for the Tar Heels was the scoring of the wings and whether they could find a steady perimeter shot. I assumed Garrison Brooks and Armando Bacot would take on most of the charge inside, I loved Day’Ron Sharpe in high school and hoped Love would be an elite guard pretty quickly. The last part hasn’t happened yet, and that has been a huge problem.
Carolina is struggling with turnovers and struggling to make shots from 3, and I’m not sure about any of those changes anytime soon. That said, I don’t think the top of the ACC is very good, so they should finish in the top six or seven places in the league and turn the NCAA tournament into a 9-10 position. This team has defended better than previous iterations of Carolina, the inner group is still elite and I still have some hope for love.
John Gasaway, college basketball writer: Still, it can be a relevant UNC team because the Tar Heels do two things very well. North Carolina plays defense and crashes the offensive cup. As for the shot, well, did I mention North Carolina plays on defense and crashes the offensive cup? These two shots could be enough to finish two or three games above .500 in the ACC game and win, for example, a No. 9 in the tournament. If nothing else, heels can always miss a shot (this happens from time to time) and rely on Brooks, Bacot or Sharpe to get it.
Joe Lunardi, ESPN Bracketologist: What the Tar Heels really need is for Cole Anthony to be a year younger. The former star from last season would be a missing piece for this year’s messy squad. However, in the real world, the perimeter of North Carolina has a long way to go to balance its productive front track. The size of the UNC remains a major advantage, but the rest of the squad would be seriously outnumbered against the best teams in the country. Fortunately, it looks like none of the best teams are playing in the ACC, so heels should sneak into the tournament. They won’t be dressed in white, though, and the top four aren’t out of the question.
The 25-player Wood Award watch list was revealed Wednesday night. What would the top three of your wooden ballot paper look like right now?
Medcalf: Let’s be honest. Luka Heron of Iowa occupies these three places, right? I think the field is fighting for second place. If, before the season, I had told you that Garza, who finished second to Obi Toppin in last year’s race, would return as a 6-foot-tall, thirty-man 49% from the 3-point line , 66% from inside arc and 74% from charity, all for America’s best offensive team at KenPom, you might not have believed me. But this is what has happened. This is his prize.
For number 2, I will choose Gonzaga’s Corey Kispert. During the 2013-14 season, Doug McDermott averaged 26.7 points and 7.0 rebounds per game while connecting to 45% of his 3-point attempts. Kispert averages 21.6 PPG, 4.5 RPG and 2.2 APG for America’s No. 1 team while making 51% of his 3-point attempts, despite playing alongside a punter. , Jalen Suggs, who could be the No. 1 pick in this year’s NBA draft. Number 3 would be Ayo Dosunmu (Illinois, 23.0 PPG).
Getaway: Heron, Jared Butler of Baylor and Hunter Dickinson of Michigan. To be clear, Dickinson wasn’t included in mid-season 25, and won’t actually be within a mile of the Wood Award. He’s a freshman who didn’t get noticed in any significant degree before the season, so he won’t be able to make up for that ground against the (worthy) tastes of Garza and Butler. But everyone does me a favor and compares the accuracy and use of the young man’s 2-point possession with what we saw of a certain (rightly so!) Celebrated freshman at Duke two years ago. It is an enlightening comparison.
Lunardi: Heron is the number 1 choice obviously, and that probably won’t change. Then I’ll go with the best players from the two best teams, Gonzaga’s Drew Timme and Baylor’s Jared Butler. In fact, if pressed, Butler and Ayo Dosunmu would be tied for third place. And, at random, how confusing would it be if Butler had a star named Jared Baylor?
Borzello: I think Garza is the obvious choice of number 1 right now. He came into the season as the big favorite to win the Wood Award, and has not disappointed. His “bad” games are still 18 and 6, 22 and 9, 16 and 14. Those numbers alone might be good enough to get a player on an American team. I would go with Dosunmu at number 2, although I think there is a pretty considerable gap between Garza and Dosunmu. Dosunmu has scored at least 30 points on three occasions, has been very good in end-of-game situations and has drastically improved his outside shot.
I love the scream of Hunter Dickinson, of Gasaway, and Jared Butler would be part of my mid-season American team, but I will go with a selection of Gonzaga players for my No. 3. The first two weeks of the season, would have been Suggs. Then Timme would have been the choice. Right now, though, Kispert is playing out of his mind. He has scored at least 25 points in three of his last four games and shoots 75.8% of 2 and 50.8% of 3.
Four players who were on Wood Watch’s starting roster – Keyontae Johnson (Florida), Caleb Mills (Houston), Chris Smith (UCLA) and Oscar Tshiebwe (West Virginia) – will not play again this season. Which of your teams can best withstand this absence and make noise in March and which one has the most problems?
Borzello: I will go with Houston. I think the Cougars are clearly the AAC class, with or without Mills, and that probably means they should head to the NCAA tournament in the best way in terms of qualifying. Kelvin Sampson is also charged on the perimeter. Quentin Grimes is having the kind of season we all expected him to leave high school a few years ago, Marcus Sasser is fantastic and DeJon Jarreau is a man of all kinds. The first year Tramon Mark has also had his moments.
In fact, I think all four teams should survive the absences and make the NCAA tournament, but Florida could have more problems. Keyontae Johnson was the best player of the four absentees mentioned, and while signings Anthony Duruji (Louisiana Tech) and Colin Castleton (Michigan) have played well in recent games, I am very concerned about the Gators.
Medcalf: I also think Houston will be fine. Mills ’role changed for an excellent Cougars roster who didn’t need him to record the minutes he played a year ago. We’ve seen Justin Gorham (12.5 PPG over the last two games without Mills) do more on offense to help his team beat SMU and Wichita State in consecutive games. Sampson has depth with this group.
I also think Florida got the biggest hit from this list. Johnson was on trend as a possible first-round pick when he collapsed against the state of Florida in the scariest incident of the year. Also, the SEC looks like a more complicated race than it seemed to enter the season.
Getaway: Houston certainly seems to be fine without Mills. The Cougars are within walking distance of being undefeated and as it stands, we are likely to see this team end the regular season with an exceptionally small number in the losing column. Mills was the top scorer last year, but he wasn’t the last word on efficiency. In his absence, Grimes has played that role with ability, and UH overwhelms American opponents with offensive boards and line trips.
Lunardi: The knee answer is Houston, for all of the reasons stated above. But West Virginia’s epic comeback to Oklahoma State remains top-notch, and Bob Huggins seems more than happy to get it with Derek Culver as the lone wolf in front. I think the Mountaineers will be fine and unfortunately the biggest loss will be Keyontae Johnson of Florida.
Selection of ESPN.com experts for the best games this weekend
(Caesars Sportsbook lines, when available. Predictors do not have access to the lines when making score predictions.)