But despite the harsh restrictions, cases are not dwindling as quickly as experts expected. Deaths continue to rise and public health experts and the government are beginning to warn people that the country will be in this battle in the long run.
The new variant, known as B.1.1.7, has wreaked havoc in the UK, fueling an increase in cases towards the end of 2020 despite a national shutdown. Data showing an increase in cases in young people suggest that this is largely due to the fact that schools had remained open, allowing the variant to spread rapidly.
According to Public Health England, the new strain first emerged in September. In late November, scientists began to worry about the rising number of infections in southeast Kent. The region was an anomaly because, although cases generally went down across the country due to national restrictions, they did not go down to Kent.
This forced the country to a much stricter closure from January 5, in which people were instructed to stay at home, in homes they were forbidden to mix (both indoors and outdoors). outside) and close everything except the essential stores, including most schools.
For many experts, the decision came too late. “It’s amazing that we seem to make the same mistakes over and over again, with a growing loss of life,” Dr Julian Tang, a clinical virologist at the University of Leicester, noted in comments at the Science Media Center in the UK.
But does the toughest strategy work? The tests are mixed.
Most deadly period
England reported nearly 70,000 new infections on January 4, the day before the announcement of the new closure. As for the new cases reported, the worst ten days in the country of the entire pandemic passed between December 29 and January 11, with an average of more than 55,000 new cases each day.
Deaths soon followed: of the 11 deadliest days of the pandemic, 10 occurred between 9 and 18 January. The country reported more than 1,000 deaths every day, something that has only happened once before.
A few days after the entry into force of the new restrictions, the number of new cases began to gradually decline, and has since continued.
The rotating average of seven seven-day daily cases, a measure that smooths out anomalies, such as lower tests on weekends, dropped from more than 60,000 on Jan. 1 to about 40,000 in recent days. However, it will probably take time to feel the impact on hospitals.
“We know there’s a gap between reporting new cases and any subsequent deaths,” Michael Head, a senior researcher in global health at the University of Southampton, told CNN in an email. “For example, a few percent of today’s new diagnoses may end up in the hospital in about 7-14 days, and about 1% of today’s cases will die in 21-28 days.” , added.
The number of people hospitalized remains at a record high, with 38,000 people in hospitals.
But while the latest figures may offer a glimpse of hope, other studies, including one by researchers at Imperial College London, draw a contrasting picture.
Unlike official case figures, which are based on the number of people being tested and therefore may not include those who are asymptomatic or who do not yet have symptoms, the REACT-1 study tracks current coronavirus infections in the community and this time has tested more than 140,000 randomly selected people.
Steven Riley, the study’s author and professor of infectious disease dynamics at Imperial College, told CNN in an email that the figures don’t show the kind of substantial decline that would be expected if the blockade were enough. strong to reduce the number of reproduction – the value indicates how far the virus spreads: a reproduction rate greater than 1 means that the epidemic is growing. On Friday, the government said the figure was between 0.8 and 1, although it warned that it varied across the country.
The study tested samples collected between Jan. 6 and 15 and compared them with mobility data based on the GPS location of people using the Facebook mobile app. The data show a decrease in mobility in late December, followed by an increase in early January when people returned to work, which according to the authors could explain the greater number of people infected in early January.
Riley said that while the study did not show a large decrease in infections, it would not be fair to say that the blockade is failing completely. “Our main point is that we didn’t detect a sharp decline which is what we really need to see.”
The authors further noted in the paper that, “Until the prevalence in the community is substantially reduced, health services will remain under extreme pressure and the accumulated number of lives lost during this pandemic will continue to increase rapidly.”
In reaction to the figures, Prime Minister Boris Johnson said the figures show that the most contagious strain was spreading “very quickly”.
“I think it’s too early to say when we will be able to lift some of the restrictions,” Johnson said.
Vallance said early data suggests that while about 10 out of every 1,000 infected men aged 60 would die from the old variant, this could reach about 13 or 14 with the new strain.
The government has also come under pressure to compensate people who need to self-isolate. A government-backed study published in September found that only 18% of people adhered to self-isolation rules and suggested that financial compensation could increase that number.
The full impact will take a while
As the numbers debate and continue to change, health experts and politicians are asking the public for patience.
The full impact of the blockade will not be felt for a while, as it will take a long time (and much longer to stay home) to fully control the last increase, they believe.
According to estimates by the Head team, the number of people succumbing to the disease is likely to remain high and only begin to fall next month. And while hospital admissions are declining, the number of patients admitted remains at record levels. As long as the number of people discharged is higher than those admitted, hospitals will remain at risk of becoming bedridden.
“The daily trend shows that blocking has an effect on these new daily cases,” Head said. “However, it is important to remember that the impact on hospitalizations will only be really visible from trends that start around the last week of January and that deaths should fall during the month of February.”
For now, that means strict restrictions will be maintained for a while.
Senior government officials have repeatedly said it is too early to speculate on easing the blockade measures that are now planned for their place until March and possibly through the summer.
“It could mean, for example, that any blockage has to be in place for longer than would have been the case for the old variant,” Head said.