As vaccine releases increase (or, in some cases, stumble) in countries around the world, the SARS-CoV-2 strain has released some new characteristics of its own, mainly in the form of rapid genetic mutations. Some evidence indicates that variants in recent months have made the virus more infectious or, in one case, possibly more deadly.
Virus variants are inevitable and often benign. The new coronavirus has probably mutated countless times without attracting the attention of epidemiologists. But new strains identified in the UK, South Africa, Brazil and California have stopped some infectious disease experts.
Several studies indicate that the strain known as variant B117, prevalent in the UK, may be up to 70 per cent more transmissible than the original virus. Two analyzes in California suggested that a new strain on the west coast, called B.1.426, made up a quarter of the infections they examined. As news reaches between peaks of infection and inoculation efforts, it may seem like the world has entered a race between the variant and the vaccine.
“Change through mutation is pretty fast,” Dr. Irwin Redlener, pediatric physician and disaster preparedness advisor to New York Mayor Bill de Blasio. “We do not know where he is going. This is the reality, that we do not know what to expect. What worries us most is that it can mutate to be resistant to vaccines or partially resistant to vaccines. It would be horrible. We could make amendments to the vaccine, but it would slow everything down. ”
In general, the arrival of new threatening strains should not change the behavior of the average person, three epidemiologists and public health advisers told the Daily Beast. “In terms of vaccines and mitigation, that doesn’t change mitigation strategies because we know it works,” Dr. Arnold Monto, University of Michigan epidemiologist and professor of Public Health. “But it just means we have to be more serious about following those kinds of rules.”
“I think this primarily reinforces the urgency of all aspects of the pandemic response,” echoed Dr. Joshua Sharfstein, vice dean of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. “Not only vaccination, but also testing contact tracking, precaution and general surveillance … it will take a lot longer than vaccines, because we don’t have enough vaccines in general in the short term.”
The Strain of the United Kingdom
Health officials in the UK first announced the detection of a new strain in mid-December, just a week after it became the first country in the world to start administering a vaccine. At a news conference, National Health Secretary Matt Hancock revealed that the new mutation had been observed in more than 1,000 patients there, prompting a new wave of strict blockades across the country. The strain was thought to go back to mid-September. In late December, its spread correlated with a massive increase in the number of COVID-19 infections across the county.
The phrase “most infectious” can be misleading, Monto said. Data on the new strain do not tell us, for example, that someone exposed to it becomes infected more quickly than someone exposed to the old strain under identical conditions. It specifically refers to the speed at which viruses reproduce.
“Let’s look at this in terms of what we know,” Monto said. “What we do know is that this virus reproduces better. In an individual, less of this virus is needed to cause an infection. How do we know? We know nothing about this in terms of “people in one room and how many people become infected with one variant versus the other.” But what is very clear is that this virus is more efficient and has taken over the old virus. That tells us it has some advantage in reproducing. “
On Friday, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced at a press conference that the dominant variant could be up to 30 per cent more deadly than the original. The findings emerged from a paper published by the advisory group on threats to new and emerging viruses, a study that, according to Monto, was based on a very small number of patients in a handful of contexts.
“A lot of other things could be related to an increase in mortality,” he said, “even when you have, as they do in the UK, more people being cared for. It’s based on small numbers, so we can’t say nothing right now. We can’t speculate. “
“It was a pronouncement he made,” Redlener said of Johnson sounding the alarm. “It simply came to our notice then. But he drew a conclusion and made it public … For now, I will say that Boris Johnson should have kept his statement until there was more evidence. “
The South African stump
Shortly after the British strain was first known, a variant called B.1.351 emerged in South Africa. The new strain shared some mutations with its British predecessor, according to the CDC. It also seemed to have a higher transmission rate. The most worrying thing about the South African strain, however, was a new mutation in its genetic code that some experts feared could reduce the effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines. Some preliminary studies, few of which were reviewed by experts, found that the E484K mutation in the South African variant limited the effectiveness of the antibodies to 50 percent.
“It’s definitely a concern,” Redlener said, referring to a report on the studies of Richard Engel of NBC. “It’s a concern because a legitimate scientist mentioned it. What we don’t know is the reliability of his studies that led him to that conclusion. “
Monto found the findings less alarming and noted that the studies came from a small research group and very few real cases. “The bottom line is that they’re trying to see in a lab if the blood from the vaccines neutralizes the variants, as well as the original virus,” Dr. Mountain. “It seems that yes and so far there are several roles. One says his test is good. Another says it’s not that good, but it’s still good. “
Other strains
According to CDC, another new variant was detected in Japan among four travelers from Brazil. Although relatively less is known about the Brazilian variant, Reuters reported on Friday that the new strain accounted for nearly half of new infections in Manaus, the largest city in the Brazilian state of Amazon.
Last summer a strain of SARS-CoV-2 appeared in Denmark in association with the country’s mink farming industry, according to the WHO. The country killed 17 million minks to prevent the virus from spreading to humans.
In California, scientists found a new variant in late December, shortly after the state suffered the deadliest increase in the pandemic. According to the Los Angeles Times, two research groups observed the new shape as they searched for evidence that the UK strain had traveled west. Also highly transmissible, it appears to be now the fastest growing variant of the state. Despite the discovery, local officials and the media have largely blamed the residents, who claim they have failed to comply with the blocking guidelines.
“It’s a very complicated question: what is causing an outbreak in a particular place,” Redlener said. “It has a lot to do with basic compliance. But in addition, there may be some other strain that has not been identified. We are operating in the dark with many things. There are many conjectures and speculations. We just have to keep looking. “