SALT LAKE CITY: It’s refreshing to see how Utah’s COVID-19 epidemiological curve falls in recent weeks after months of increased cases; however, there are signs that recent cases do not show a complete picture of COVID-19 in the state.
In a conventional sense, the spread of COVID-19 can be determined simply by looking at new cases discovered by testing. But what happens when coronavirus tests are not exactly consistent?
This is where other statistics help to reconcile the current impact of COVID-19 on the state.
Cases confirmed downward, the rate of positivity slowly increases
The Utah Department of Health reported 972 new cases of COVID-19 from tests conducted Friday and 802 on Saturday. These figures were the lowest one-day increases recorded since early October. In fact, it produced a stretch of 1,000 or more new daily cases announced by the health department dating back to October 12th. The department reported 1,700 more cases of tests on Sunday, which is also well below the rotating average of seven days before Christmas.
The state’s COVID-19 epidemiological curve and the seven-day average of new cases have also declined since about Dec. 10.
That said, the evidence is another drop in that same time. For example, more than 15,000 people were tested for COVID-19 on Dec. 9, most of the tests performed after Thanksgiving, according to data from the health department. Aside from some atypical values, the state has generally reported days with fewer than 10,000 tests performed since then. Testing was not conducted on Christmas Day and test sites closed early on Christmas Eve, but the downward trend is visible in a graph before the holidays.
Meanwhile, the percentage of positive tests on the tests performed, commonly known as the positivity rate, has only increased since the cases decreased. As of Monday, Utah’s seven-day average positivity rate is 24.4% as of the previous December 22 date. Preliminary data from the weekend indicate positivity rates close to 30%, which means the number will increase in the coming days.
Experts have said the positivity rate is an important statistic as it can provide a better assessment of the prevalence of a virus in a community when tests fluctuate widely and become unreliable. In this case, the positivity rate is the biggest sign that COVID-19 is not just being abandoned in Utah, even if the number of cases decreases.
“We’re certainly concerned because it represents a high level of community transmission,” said Dr. Todd Vento, an infectious disease doctor at Intermountain Healthcare. “So that’s why we’re constantly monitoring the situation to see if there are any additional steps we need to take to fix it.”
Vento said health officials do not know exactly why tests are currently down; however, they have seen trends throughout the pandemic and diseases other than COVID-19. On a smaller scale, some days, such as Sunday and Monday, produce fewer tests than other days. They are believed to be related to when someone is expected to go out in public for any reason, such as work.
“The same kind of concept after the holidays,” Vento said. “We’ve seen in the past that the numbers were going down right away. Yesterday’s numbers were very low, which is why people are waking up from the holidays and maybe on Tuesday, for example, for lack of better words.” or on Wednesday, they’ll start thinking “Okay, I’m going to test.” This is not unusual for other respiratory diseases. “
As evidence fell, he said the epidemiological curve and the seven-day average count of cases “may not accurately reflect what is in the community,” especially when the days on which evidence is taken into account. they were limited.
This is where the positivity rate comes into play.
“You can’t just look at cases and cases for an average of seven days, as it won’t accurately reflect the same number of tests that were done,” he added.
As for Utah’s positivity rate, it has been a roller coaster ride in recent weeks. After rising to 25.4% on November 10, it fell 21.8% on November 22, just days before Thanksgiving. It rose again to its current all-time high of 27.2% on December 1 before falling to 22.3% on December 13. It has risen steadily since then, but at a much slower pace.
What happened to hospitalizations for COVID-19?
Of course, the biggest concern of COVID-19 is any impact it has on hospitals and deaths. Vento said hospitalizations in Utah because of the coronavirus have stabilized and even dropped a bit. This is a welcome signal for a state hospital system that was on the verge of full capacity.
Hospitalizations due to COVID-19 tend to lag behind new cases, so the current peak of 606 hospitalizations in the state on December 4 was primarily the result of escalating COVID-19 cases before thanksgiving. Public health experts warned about holiday meetings for fear that hospitalizations would only grow.
It appears Utahns heeded the pandemic recommendations for at least Thanksgiving. Although many new cases were still reported, there were not as many as feared. As a result, the state health department reported just before Christmas fewer than 500 hospitalizations due to COVID-19 for the first time since mid-November.
“Although the nation had an increase in an increase ((there was) a fall increase and then a post-Thanksgiving increase for the United States), we did not see this level of cases rising after Action Thank you, as we were thinking or worried, which is great, ”he said.
He added that hospitals have also learned to shorten stays for patients who do not need ICU care by providing recovery models at home so people can leave hospital sooner.
The data could show that COVID-19 has not left the state although new cases are declining, but a positive sign is that new hospitalizations are declining due to coronavirus.
Recently, the state health department began reporting the seven-day rotating average of new daily hospitalizations, in addition to current hospitalization figures. Utah reached a seven-day average of 92.4 daily hospitalizations on Nov. 18. It was the day 116 new Utahns were admitted to a hospital due to COVID-19.
The average fell to 71.2 new daily hospitalizations on December 22, which is the first day after the department’s incomplete new hospitalization data period. These figures are still high, especially compared to the figures before November. Still, it shows that following the guidelines for Thanksgiving meetings helped not only reduce the growth of new cases, but also helped lessen the impact on hospitals.
The jury still doesn’t know if the December holiday meetings will have taken anything into account, as the holiday season doesn’t end until Friday after New Year’s Day.
Perspective towards the New Year
All health recommendations for Thanksgiving, Hanukkah, Christmas and Kwanzaa apply on New Year’s Eve. This means that health officials advise people to celebrate the holidays at home and connect virtually with other homes.
Intermountain Healthcare even promoted a DIY New Year’s ball that dropped from a polystyrene foam ball and a wooden peg as a way to celebrate the holidays at home in a fun and safe way.
Looking for a fun way to celebrate New Year’s Eve safely? Try creating your own ball drop experience at home! #DIY # IMTNCovid19
Posted by Intermountain Healthcare on Sunday, December 27, 2020
Vento’s colleague, Dr. Eddie Stenehjem, another infectious disease doctor for Intermountain Healthcare, said last week that he predicted COVID-19 testing would increase after New Year’s Day. One of the main reasons for this, he said, is that Utah colleges will begin massive weekly tests of students who remain on campus during the spring semester.
Once this begins, the positivity rate will be another key factor, as test figures may exceed previous test standards.
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Carter Williams