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The new most contagious strain of Covid-19 that first emerged in the south-east of England was already spreading rapidly even during the nation’s second closure in November, according to a report released Thursday by scientists from the Imperial College London.
A report by scientists at Imperial College London published on December 31 estimated that the new strain of coronavirus tripled the number of infections in England during the November closure, while the number of new cases caused by the variant previous decreased by a third.
The new strain recorded a higher reproduction rate (R) (which determines the degree of contagion that is based on a disease based on the number of people infected per infected person) of 0.7 versus 0.4 for the previous strain, even with the “high levels of social distancing.” during the pre-Christmas closing.
An R rate must be less than 1 for the number of new cases to start falling. The British government’s latest estimate of the R rate for the UK as a whole, published on 23 December, was between 1.1 and 1.3.
The emergence of the new Covid-19 strain caused more than 50 countries to impose travel restrictions on the UK in late December, many of which were subsequently lifted. France reported its first case of the new variant on its land on 25 December.
“There is a big difference in how easily the variant virus spreads,” Axel Gandy, a statistician at Imperial College London and co-author of the report, told the BBC. “This is the most serious change in the virus since the epidemic began,” he said.
Research from Imperial College also found that the new strain initially spread more rapidly among people under the age of 20, but then began to spread to other age groups.
“The first data was collected during the November closing, where schools were open and the activities of the adult population were more restricted,” Gandy said. “We are seeing that the new virus has increased infection for all age groups,” he continued.
The government on Wednesday imposed closure measures in areas covering 78 per cent of the English population, while regional authorities in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland also recovered containment measures.
Intensive care units in London and the surrounding south-eastern region exceeded capacity on 29 December, with occupancy reaching 114 and 113 per cent, respectively, according to NHS data released in the publication. specialist from the Health Services Journal. In response, the government activated one of its Nightingale hospitals, designed to deal exclusively with Covid-19 patients, thus removing pressure from overcrowded hospitals, in London on 31 December.
The Imperial College report suggested that keeping schools closed after the Christmas holidays will help contain the spread of the virus: “A particular concern is whether it will be possible to maintain control over transmission while allowing schools to reopen. in January “. The government has extended the Christmas holidays until 11 January, when high schools in England are expected to resume classroom attendance. Pupils will return to English primary schools on January 4, except at the most serious virus spots, including London.
It is “inevitable” that schools will have to remain closed to prevent the new Covid-19 variant from going out of control, Deepti Gurdasani, a clinical epidemiologist and tenured professor at Queen Mary’s University of London, told the Financial Times.
The death toll from Covid-19 reached 981 on Wednesday, the highest daily number since the coronavirus first rose in the spring. Overall, the UK has seen more than 2.5 million confirmed cases of coronavirus, while the death toll stands at more than 74,000, the second highest in Europe after that of Italy and the sixth highest Of the world.
The government will have to speed up the launch of vaccines if it wants to contain the new Covid-19 strain, its scientific advisory committee suggested on December 22, warning that “current vaccination rates are unlikely to change significantly. ‘epidemiology’ of the virus.
The United Kingdom was the first Western country to approve both the Pfizer-BioNTech and Oxford-AstraZeneca coups for emergency use. Authorities have so far distributed one million vaccines, Health Secretary Matt Hancock wrote in tweet. More than 940,000 people have had the first blow, the BBC reported.