According to new research, the coronavirus pandemic will shorten life expectancy at the birth of Americans by about a year due to the more than 336,000 deaths from disease in the U.S. by 2020.
Researchers at the University of Southern California and Princeton project that life expectancy will be reduced by 1.13 years, to 77.48 years, according to their study, published Thursday in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
This is the lowest estimated life expectancy since 2003 and marks the biggest one-year decline in at least 40 years, according to Science Daily.
The study found that decreases in longevity are even stronger among minority populations.
For blacks, researchers project that life expectancy would be shortened from 2.10 years to 72.78 years, and for Latinos, between 3.05 years and 78.77 years, according to the research.
Among whites, the projected decline is 0.68 years to a life expectancy of 77.84 years, while in general, the gap in life expectancy between blacks and whites is expected to widen a 40 percent, going from 3.6 to more than five years.
“Our study analyzes the effect of this exceptional number of deaths on nation-wide life expectancy, as well as the consequences for marginalized groups,” said study author Theresa Andrasfay, a fellow postdoctoral fellow at USC Leonard Davis School of Gerontology.
“The disproportionate effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on the life expectancy of black and Latino Americans probably has to do with their increased exposure through their workplace or extended family contacts, in addition to receiving health care more deficient, causing more infections and worse results, “he added.
Apparently, the coronavirus has eliminated many of the gains made by narrowing the black-and-white life expectancy gap since 2006, Science Daily reported.
Latinos, who have experienced lower mortality than whites, would see their survival advantage reduced by more than three years over whites to less than one year.
“The huge decline in Latino life expectancy is especially shocking given that Latinos have lower rates than the black and white populations of most chronic conditions that are risk factors for COVID-19,” he said. co-author of the study, Noreen Goldman, professor of demography. and public affairs at Princeton.
“The good general health of Latinos before the pandemic, which should have protected them from COVID-19, has exposed the risks associated with economic and social disadvantage,” he said.
The study estimated life expectancy at birth and at age 65 by 2020 for the total U.S. population and by race and ethnicity.
The researchers used four death scenarios: one in which the pandemic had not occurred and three others that included COVID-19 mortality projections from the Institute for Health Metrics and Assessment, a center for independent global health research from the University of Washington.
“The larger reductions in life expectancy of Latino and black populations result in part from a disproportionate number of deaths at younger ages for these groups,” Goldman said.
“These findings underscore the need for behaviors and protection programs to reduce potential viral exposure among younger individuals who may not perceive themselves as at risk,” he added.
The projected fall in pandemic-related life expectancy is about ten times greater than the falls in recent years.
During the 1918 flu pandemic, life expectancy was reduced by an extraordinary period of seven to twelve years.