Dr. Ashish K Jha (pictured), dean of the Brown University School of Public Health, has issued a warning about new “supercovid” variants
A public health expert says new “supercovid” variants could make the coronavirus pandemic in the U.S. up to five times more deadly.
The new strain, known as B.1.1.7, which was first detected in the UK, has now infected at least 37 people in seven states and at least 30 countries.
Meanwhile, a close cousin has been found in South Africa, the United Kingdom and at least seven other nations, but not yet in the United States.
It is feared to be up to 70 percent more transmissible and to spread more easily among children.
Dr. Ashish K Jha, dean of Brown University’s School of Public Health, says the new variant is “significantly more infectious,” there could be up to 10 million new infections in the U.S. and up to 150,000 deaths since now until the end of February.
For this reason, he argues that the United States should also delay the administration of second doses of the coronavirus vaccine and, instead, give as many initials as possible to so many Americans.
In a press release, Jha wrote that a significant increase in COVID-19 infection rates will create a much more lethal pandemic despite the fact that the new variants do not make patients worse.
It refers to an epidemiologist at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, who hypothetically compared a strain that was 50 per cent more contagious with one that was 50 per cent more deadly in a Twitter thread.
The B.1.1.7 strain first detected in the UK has now infected at least 37 people in seven states (above), while the strain found in South Africa has not yet reached the US
Jha warns that the pandemic could become “five times more deadly” because the new variants will infect more people more quickly and overwhelm hospitals. Pictured: Respiratory therapist Walter Smith gives oxygen to a COVID-19 patient before intubating him in the ICU of Uniontown Hospital in Uniontown, Pennsylvania, on December 16th.
He advises officials to delay the administration of coronavirus vaccine doses so that as many people as possible receive at least one dose. Pictured: a bottle of Modern COVID-19 vaccine on a table before use in Topeka, Kansas, December 30
The epidemiologist found that in a city of 10,000 infections, the 50% fatal strain would cause about 193 new deaths after a month of spread.
However, the 50 percent more transmissible variant would cause 978 fatalities within a month, which equates to a fivefold increase.
“Because a lower mortality rate in a very large number of cases results in many more deaths than a higher mortality rate, but a lower number of cases,” Jha explains in the press release.
“It is estimated that the new strain will represent approximately [one percent] of all infections at this time, but due to their increased contagiousness, the best estimates are that most of all new infections will arrive in March. “
Jha says urgent aggressive action is needed to limit the spread of the new strain as several health systems are experiencing a severe shortage of beds and resources.
“This new, more infectious variant will change the underlying dynamics of the pandemic, with an exponential growth in infections that will make the virus much harder to contain and overload our stressed healthcare system.
“The U.S. health care system is already staggering under the burden of the pandemic caused by the current (old) strain,” he wrote.
Some suggestions include tightening restrictions on indoor meetings and deploying a large number of quick tests in schools, offices, and homes.
“We should expect, without further action, that as the new strain ends, we will see an additional 10 million infections in the United States by the end of February, and during that time we could easily see between 100,000 and An additional 150,000 dead ‘He wrote.
But perhaps most importantly, Jha says the Trump administration needs to step up vaccination efforts across the country.
The government’s current policy is to retain about half of the available supply to ensure people receive a second dose.
However, Jha says officials should prioritize making sure that as many Americans as possible receive at least one dose, especially the elderly, and that second doses can be given when more vaccines come out of the line. production.
There is currently no evidence to suggest that vaccines do not work against new variants, and a single shot has been found to be at least 50% effective in preventing COVID-19 infection.
The UK has already opted for this, delaying the second doses of the Pfizer and Oxford University / AstraZeneca blows, so that a wider group of people can receive the first blows.
Among fewer vaccines approved for the then-expected New Year, rising infection rates and the threat of new variants, Jha urges immediate action.
“It’s essential to get ahead of this variant, as it takes advantage of the United States,” he wrote.
“If we act aggressively now, we can avoid the worst case scenario: more suffering, more deaths and more economic damage awaiting us in the coming months.”