The Matthew Stafford blockbuster that sent the twelve-year veteran to the Los Angeles Rams will probably not be the biggest trade involving a quarterback this offseason. Deshaun Watson, quarterback of the Houston jeans, wants to come out, and his market will likely be robust enough so the jeans can’t afford the waiting game with him.
In case Watson is treated, John McClain of the Houston Chronicle offered a picture of what it might take to pull the three-time Pro Bowler away from the jeans. He noted that the deal between the Lions and the Rams will not play a role in creating the market for Watson, but the two first-round picks, a third-round pick and starting quarterback that landed Stafford in Los Angeles will not. touch on McClain’s assumption in a Watson agreement:
Two first-round picks, two second-round picks and a couple of young defensive starters is a high price for any player. Some teams would argue, however, that no price is too high for a 24-year-old franchise quarterback.
One of the possible hurdles that San Francisco would have to clear to acquire Watson is just the large number of assets it could have. They have their own first-round selections to work with and their own second-round selections, so draft compensation would not be difficult.
Where things could turn out to be potentially interesting and catchy for San Francisco, are the players the Texans might want in return.
The 49ers have a number of young players that a team can charge in a trade, however, given the nature of the situation with a QB franchise at the other end of the deal, the starting point for the Texans negotiations would likely begin with Nick Bosa and Fred. Warner.
It’s hard to imagine San Francisco dealing with the defensive cornerstones of its franchise along with all the options. A quarterback is important, but dealing with Bosa and Warner would effectively mean a complete rebuild for a defense that San Francisco has already spent three years putting together. Watson is fantastic and the quarterback is the most important position on the field, but flying the bases of the defense that led a Super Bowl race just a season ago seems drastic.
The 49ers might be willing to hand out one of those two players and a pair of players to Houston, but giving away several All-Pro-caliber players who change the game from an already formidable set up front is antithetical to all of general manager John Lynch and head coach Kyle Shanahan have done so from a team-building perspective over the past four years.
Of course, the whole nature of this deal goes against previous seasons of Lynch and Shanahan. They have shown their willingness to move drafts when it comes to a relatively low cost. Its operations have never included first-round options, except for its exchange in the 2020 draft from number 31 to number 25.
In case San Francisco decides to enter these waters, it could end up moving DL Javon Kinlaw and LB Dre Greenlaw, for example. Two young defensive starters with qualities to become good faith stars in the NFL. They’re also the kind of players the 49ers could replace more easily than Bosa and Warner. Kinlaw was the No. 14 general election, but tracking top-tier defensive confrontations is easier than tracking runners from shattering edges.
Arik Armstead is another player Houston may be willing to take on. He has a fairly sizable contract, but a versatile defensive lineman who can stay on the field and be effective for three casualties could be attractive to a young, rebuilding defense.
Any move the 49ers make in the Watson draw will be out of their comfort zone and, to complete a trade of this magnitude, will hurt San Francisco a little. They will not be able to escape with a bargain, even in the universe where Watson is actively activated towards the bay area.