Despite falling to 5-10 a year, UK coach John Calipari told reporters after Kentucky’s 70-59 defeat to Alabama on Tuesday evening that a path to the NCAA tournament still was on the table for the Wildcats, even without the SEC tournament.
“Yes, it’s (too early to worry) because we have all kinds of games left. We will have six or seven teams classified “, said Calipari. “What if Terrence (Clarke) comes back and suddenly we are a different team? I think we are in a better position. “
Just three days later, Kentucky canceled its Texas No. 5 game in the Big 12 / SEC Challenge scheduled for Saturday night due to a combination of positive testing, contact tracking and subsequent quarantine of people inside. of the program. The team is now on a 48-hour hiatus, with next week’s games at No. 12 in Missouri and against No. 18 in Tennessee officially on the air.
Although the SEC is determined to reschedule any adjourned conference game due to COVID-19, the non-conference schedule is no longer a priority. Canceled means canceled, and the total number of Kentucky regular season games is reduced to 24 a year, 25 if the team’s postponed game against South Carolina is rescheduled.
Calipari’s statement about “all kinds of games left” was simply not true at the time, and is even more off-base. With a maximum of ten games on the calendar, math is not added to the NCAA tournament without the help of an SEC title in Nashville, especially when you consider the current inability of the team to consecutive wins and boost impulse.
The odds of the UK tournament were reduced to the Texas clash. Now, it will take some serious magic even to make a shot.
How is this magic? Let’s look at the scenarios.
Regular season
How I broke up last week before the trip from Kentucky to Georgia, the magical number of the United Kingdom has been of approximately 15 victories to close the regular season, an intense task before the Wildcats fell to Georgia and Alabama in two of the team’s last three games. Why 15?
No team in the last eleven years (the entire term of Calipari in the UK) has won a global bid with a profit percentage worse than 0.555. These teams – Florida (2019), Alabama (2018), Vanderbilt (2017) – each finished with the final records of 19-15.
While these win totals aren’t possible for the UK now (and hopefully they don’t reach those loss totals), the Wildcats had to finish the regular season around 15-11 overall to place- if above this minimum mark .558 have a chance. Now that the total number of games has dropped to 25 a year, here are the updated earnings percentages, both above and below this minimum threshold:
- 15 wins, 10 losses = .600
- 14 wins, 11 losses = .560
- 13 wins, 12 losses = .520
- 12 wins, 13 losses = .480
This brings us to the first part of the postseason game.
SEC Tournament
Kentucky’s margin of error is clearly small and the odds are unlikely as they are. But, if feral cats are busy closing the regular season and are still in contention for a general offer, this is where things stand to reach that minimum .558 earnings percentage.
With 15 wins, 10 losses …
With 14 wins, 11 losses …
- A loss (14-12) = .538
- A win, a defeat (15-12) = .556
- Two wins, one defeat (16-12) = .571
With 13 wins, 12 losses …
- A loss (13-13) = .500
- A win, a defeat (14-13) = .519
- Two wins, one defeat (15-13) = 0.536
- Three wins, one defeat (16-13) = 0.552
- Four wins, one loss (17-13) = .567
With 12 wins, 13 losses …
- A loss (12-14) = .462
- A victory, a defeat (13-14) = .481
- Two wins, one defeat (14-14) = .500
- Three wins, one loss (15-14) = .517
- Four wins, one defeat (16-14) = .553
In a typical SEC tournament break, the maximum number of wins the lowest ranking leader can win without winning the title is four, as the fifth game is the championship. Winning five games secures the SEC title, giving the team an automatic bid in the NCAA tournament.
In short, 13 or more regular season losses mean the title or fall of the SEC tournament.
It was Calipari mal saying Kentucky doesn’t trust an SEC title to make the NCAA tournament? Not technically. But looking at recent history with global offerings, this point is a very small margin of error for Kentucky. It can be so thin that winning ten in a row to close out the regular season may be the only way to feel comfortable getting a bid.
Calipari has taken many rabbits out of his hat during his entire stay in Lexington, but he will have to pull off his biggest trick so far to lead this team to the Big Dance.