When will it be safe to shop at a grocery store or show up at the office without wearing a mask? Before what most experts are willing to admit. If the coronavirus epidemic in the U.S. continues in its current trajectory, the need for masks outside certain areas of local outbreaks will pass in a matter of weeks.
One way of thinking about the problem is by analogy with seasonal flu. Hardly anyone wears a mask in a normal environment to protect themselves from the flu and no one does. The worst flu seasons in recent years saw an average of 220 deaths a day nationwide. The seven-day moving average of Covid-19 daily deaths hovers around 900, even considerably worse. But that is a 78% reduction since January and trends are favorable almost across the country. When the continuous average of 14 days of daily Covid deaths has dropped below the flu level, which can happen over the next month or two, we should adjust our way of thinking about the coronavirus accordingly.
Vaccination is the main reason for the sharp decline in cases and coveted deaths. About three million shots are administered each day, and once immunity is initiated, vaccinated people have a negligible risk of infection, regardless of the spread of the infection. If you have been vaccinated, there is almost no direct benefit to the safety (for you or others) of wearing a mask. You still have to do it just because immunity is invisible. The expectation or requirement to wear a mask is not possible to impose it only on those who are vulnerable or may be dangerous.
At some point, however, the herd’s immunity is achieved: a sufficient amount of population is immune to keep the risk of infection to a minimum in the general population. Anthony Fauci puts the herd immunity threshold on the total vaccination of 85% of the American population, including children. Since the vaccine has only been authorized for patients 16 years of age and older and not all adults are willing to accept it, Dr. Fauci’s goal will almost certainly not be achieved another year, if ever. . The current figure is only 17% of the total population.
The point of reference of Dr. Fauci is excessively tall. He ignores that many unvaccinated Americans (perhaps up to 120 million, as seroprevalence studies suggest that actual incidence levels are three to 20 times the number of infections caught) have immunity due to a previous infection. A recent large-scale Danish study found that the above infection provides approximately 80% protection to patients under 65 years of age and 47% protection to adults. This difference is why it is important to prioritize the elderly for vaccination, as the US authorities have done. Because of this combination of factors, we will probably exceed 50% combined immunity over the next week or two.