DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP): stored at the time of entry. Bars full and throbbing like in 2019. Social media stars waving bottles of champagne. DJs doing party songs through multi-hour snacks.
Since it became one of the first destinations in the world to open to tourism, Dubai, in the United Arab Emirates, has been promoted as the ideal place for a pandemic holiday. Analysts say the opposite cannot be allowed, as the virus shakes the foundations of the city-state economy.
With its cavernous shopping malls, frantic construction and legions of foreign workers, Dubai was built with the promise of globalization, coming largely from the aviation, hospitality and retail sectors, all heavily affected by the virus.
Now the reality is catching up with the emirate he dreamed of. With the high tourism season booming, coronavirus infections are rising to unprecedented heights. The daily count of cases has almost tripled in the last month, forcing Britain to close the travel corridor with Dubai last week. But in the face of a growing economic crisis, the city will not be blocked.
“Dubai’s economy is a house of cards,” said Matthew Page, a non-resident academic at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “Its competitive advantage is being a place where the rules don’t apply.”
Although most countries banned UK tourists for fear of the virus spreading rapidly, Dubai, home to some 240,000 British expatriates, kept its doors open during the holidays. Emirates operated five daily flights to Heathrow Airport in London.
Within days, the new strain of the virus had reached the emirates, but that didn’t stop TV and reality stars from escaping Britain’s closure and winter weather in Dubai’s bars and beaches, without do a coronavirus test before boarding. Pre-pandemic party scenes were sprinkled by British tabloids. Faced with the backlash, Instagram influencers spotted at boat parties were quick to proclaim their trip “essential”.
Dubai rejoiced at the influx. Hotel occupancy rates rose to 71% in December, according to data provider STR. The London-Dubai air route was ranked as the busiest in the world during the first week of January, said OAG, an aviation data analysis company.
“People have already had enough of this pandemic,” said Iris Sabellano of Dubai’s Al Arabi Travel Agency, adding that many of its customers have been forced to quarantine after giving positive to the virus on arrival or before departure. Travelers coming from a select list of countries do not need to test before their trips, but all must do so at Dubai Airport.
“With the vaccines coming out, they feel it’s not the end of the world, they’re not going to die,” he said.
For those dying of COVID-19, Emirates Airlines offers to pay $ 1,800 to help cover funeral costs.
As the outbreak worsens, it looks like the stop will slow down. Israeli tourists, who arrived by the tens of thousands after a standardization agreement between the countries, have disappeared due to new quarantine rules. The decision to suspend Israeli visa waivers in the UAE until July went into effect Monday. Britain’s decision to order a forty-day ban for those returning from Dubai threatens to destroy what’s left of the tourism sector.
“The British make up such a large proportion of tourists and investors in Dubai,” said David Tarsh, a spokesman for ForwardKeys, a travel data analytics company. “Cutting this pipe … is a complete disaster for the city.”
British Transport Secretary Grant Shapps tweeted that the government’s decision was motivated by the latest UAE virus data. But beyond the daily infections, data are scarce. The UAE does not make public information about disease clusters or hospitalizations.
Amid an aggressive testing campaign, the country has reported more than 256,000 cases and 751 deaths. Analysts speculate on the UAE’s unique demographics – 90% of expatriates, mostly young healthy workers – have prevented hospitals with a large workforce from collapsing and keeping the death rate low at 0.3%. .
But that hasn’t calmed Abu Dhabi, Dubai’s most conservative neighbor and the country’s capital. Without explanation, Abu Dhabi has kept its border with Dubai wheelless closed, despite promises to reopen Christmas. Anyone crossing into Abu Dhabi must submit a negative coronavirus test.
Relations between Dubai, which is heavy in services, and Abu Dhabi, which is rich in oil, can be strained. During the 2009 financial crisis, Abu Dhabi needed to rescue Dubai with a $ 20 billion bailout. This time, it is unclear whether Dubai can count on another cash infusion, given the fall in world oil prices.
Even pre-pandemic, Dubai’s economy was heading for another recession thanks to an unstable real estate market, which has risen 30% in value since the highs of 2014. The emirate and its network of entities linked to the government face billions of dollars in debt repayments. The government has already intervened to help Emirates Airlines, which received $ 2 billion in aid last year. Other indebted companies investing in hospitality and tourism may need help, especially with events such as the one-year World Expo. S&P Global, a rating agency, estimates that Dubai’s debt burden is 148% of gross domestic product if state-linked industries are included.
Under pressure, authorities have taken advantage of vaccines as the only way to contain the outbreak. On the front pages of state-linked newspapers there are stories promoting mass inoculation, which officials claim is the second fastest in the world after Israel, with 19 doses distributed per 100 people as of Tuesday.
The UAE offers the Chinese vaccine against the coronavirus Sinopharm to everyone, although its announcement on the effectiveness of the shot has no data and details. Demand has overwhelmed the supply of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine in Dubai, where direct phone operators say thousands of high-risk residents remain on a waiting list.
With the country destroying its record of infections for seven consecutive days, the governor of Dubai, Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, said that widespread vaccination, not movement restrictions, “would accelerate the full recovery of our country.” .
But even if Dubai meets its goal of inoculating 70% of the population by the end of 2021, Moody’s Investors Service expects the UAE economy to take three years to recover.
“I don’t think the days in Dubai are numbered,” said Page, the Carnegie scholar. “But if the city were more modest and responsible, it would be a more sustainable place.”