Washington.— Georgia on my mind, written by Hoagy Carmichael in 1930 and popularized decades later by Ray Charles, Is the official song of the state of Georgia. Right now, moreover, is the exact answer to the question about what is on the minds of Americans this early 2021: the entire political future of the country passes through Georgia.
Georgia was one southern state to which none federal election he was paying attention. Considered one of the strongest Republicans, in November everything took a turn. Joe Biden he managed to win the state in a presidential election, something a Democrat had not achieved since 1992, by less than 12,000 votes. The last Democratic senator for Georgia to leave his post in 2005. Since then, the Republican walk through the state has been forceful, controlling all organs of power of that entity.
A turn of this draft is not understood without the figure of Stacey Abrams, Leader of the party in the area and standard of an unprecedented turn that basically and simplifying much, was dedicated to fight against the policies of suppression of vote to the population – mainly the Afro-American one – and to the mobilization of voters, taking advantage the demographic changes that favor Democrats.
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“It now looks better for Democrats than could ever have been predicted based on historical history,” the political scientist opined. Bernard Fraga, From Emory University, to the Associated Press, pointing out that the key will be, as is almost always the case in this type of election race, in the degree of turnout, and whether the number of voters going out to vote is enough for Democrats to that the result is favorable to them.
Extraordinarily, Georgia had two vacancies in the Senate in this election cycle, both controlled so far by Republicans: that of David Perdue, Which had to renew its mandate, and that of Kelly Loeffler, Put into office by the governor of the state after the retirement of its previous owner.
An anomalous situation that was resolved by citing the contenders in overtime: in the first round no one exceeded 50% of the vote, so they were placed in this second round that not only will two winners come out for two seats in the Senate: It will be determined which party dominates the upper room and, in return, what kind of presidency Biden may have, at least in the first leg of his term.
Right now the Senate balance is 50-48 in favor of Republicans, waiting for the resolution in Georgia. Democrats must win the two contests this January 5 to have a tiny majority and the minimum: the tie at 50 that would come from a victory in the two elections would be undone by the quality vote of the president of the l ‘Senate, which would be none other than the future vice president Kamala Harris.
Republicans are campaigning under the slogan: “Defending the majority,” embracing the gap in power they have left: maintaining control of the Senate will allow them to have the final say in all legislative actions they want to push from the White house, And even the power to veto cabinet members and proposals for vacancies in the judiciary. A power that would convert to Mitch McConnell, The Conservative leader in the upper house, in one of Washington’s most important men, almost at the height of the president.
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the democratsFor their part, they are looking for a historic turn in the hands of two candidates who, in a highly calculated strategy, are campaigning together. Jon Ossoff i Raphael Warnock, Rivals of Perdue and Loeffler, respectively, know that winning is a matter of life or death, not worth them with a partial victory: it is an all or nothing.
Senate candidate for Georgia Raphael Warnock at a rally in Lagrange. The second round of the election is key. Photo: AP.
Neither party left anything in the inkwell, and economic investment figures are stratospheric. It has been over $ 500 million in ads and propaganda for days, and the money raised by each candidate exceeds or is very close to a hundred million dollars.
Usually a second round mobilizes far fewer people than in the general election, but it is an exceptional time in United States, Beginning the post-Trump era and with the Senate at stake. As of last Wednesday, more than 2.5 million people had voted in advance (half of those who went to the polls in November), an unprecedented record.
A huge amount that predicts a count again very slow and, more than likely, contentious. For Democrats, high turnout is a good omen, especially if the turnout of Afro-descendants and youth is maintained, key demographics to their aspirations for victory. “The secret of the second round is that it is more about motivation than persuasion,” recalled the Vox portal Stefan Turkheimer, Democratic strategist in the state.
In early December, Trump he had already gone to Georgia to hold a rally in favor of his candidates, but he only devoted himself to campaigning for his failed attempt to subvert the result of the presidential election he lost. The message that the election is fixed and that the rulers of the state (all Republicans) have helped this non-existent fraud does not play, at first, in favor of the Conservatives trusting the system and betting on going out to vote.
The campaign has not been free of scandals, controversy and spectacle. The two Republican candidates, both loyal to Trump, have been investigated for financial maneuvers that were allegedly linked to the classified information they had about the pandemic and that generated profits from the sale of shares; both closed without a firm indictment.
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Loeffler, married to a billionaire, has also had to deal with a scandal over a photo with a KKK leader. Perdue, one of the richest senators in Congress, is also a relative of the current government’s secretary of agriculture.
Warnock, reverend in a church in which he also officiated Martin Luther King and the only African-American in the fight, he is seeing how they use their sermons against him to present him as someone radical; in addition, he has recently had an altercation with his ex-wife. Ossoff, a documentary filmmaker and the youngest of four, is accused of being a “socialist” and close to the theses of the more progressive currents of the Democratic Party, a toxic definition among moderate voters.
Perdue did not attend one of the debates, leaving his lectern abandoned as Ossoff struggled with the absence of his rival.
It is impossible to speculate on the result, with most polls betting on a technical tie with a minimum margin. But what is at stake is so important that this Monday both outgoing President Donald Trump and President-elect Joe Biden will be in Georgia campaigning for their candidates, with the hope that their imprint will be able to scratch and seduce all the votes possible for a victory of his side in such decisive elections.
An election that, in the event of a repeat of the November 3 scenario, may not be resolved until a few days later, once again testing the patience of voters and the institutional disruption emanating from the White House that still, for a few more days, Donald Trump commands.