HANGEDIGI, Turkey (AP) – From above, the new border wall separating Turkey from Iran looks like a white snake crossing the barren hills. So far it only covers a third of the 540-kilometer (335-mile) border, leaving many gaps for migrants to slip into in the middle of the night.
Traffic on this key migration route from Central Asia to Europe has remained relatively stable compared to previous years. But European countries, as well as Turkey, fear that the sudden return of the Taliban government to Afghanistan could change that.
Chased by a 2015 war crisis driven by the war in Syria, European leaders desperately want to prevent another large-scale influx of refugees and migrants from Afghanistan. Except for those who helped Western forces in the country’s two-decade war, the message to Afghans considering fleeing to Europe is: If you have to leave, go to neighboring countries, but don’t come here.
“It should be our goal to keep the majority of the people in the region,” Austrian Interior Minister Karl Nehammer said this week, echoing what many European leaders say.
European Union officials said at a meeting of interior ministers this week that the most important lesson of 2015 was not to leave Afghans at their disposal and that, without urgent humanitarian aid, they would begin to move, according to a note confidential German diplomacy obtained by The Associated Press
Austria, among the EU’s hard-line migration lines, suggested setting up “deportation centers” in Afghanistan’s neighboring countries so that EU countries can deport Afghans who have been denied asylum even though they cannot be returned to their homeland.
The desperate scenes of people clinging to planes taking off from Kabul airport have only deepened Europe’s anxiety over a possible refugee crisis. The United States and its NATO allies are firing on the evacuation of thousands of Afghans who fear the Taliban will punish them for working with Western forces. But other Afghans are unlikely to receive the same welcome.
Even Germany, which since 2015 has admitted more Syrians than any other Western nation, is sending a different signal today.
Several German politicians, including Armin Laschet, the Union’s center-right bloc candidate to succeed Angela Merkel as chancellor, warned last week that the 2015 migration crisis should not be “repeated”.
French President Emmanuel Macron stressed that “Europe alone cannot bear the consequences” of the situation in Afghanistan and “we must anticipate and protect ourselves against major irregular migratory flows.”
Britain, which left the EU in 2020, said it would host 5,000 Afghan refugees this year and resettle 20,000 Afghans in the coming years.
In addition, there have been few specific offers from European countries, which in addition to evacuating their own Afghan citizens and collaborators, say they are focusing on helping Afghans within their country and in neighboring countries such as Iran and Pakistan.
Europe “should not wait until people stay at our external border,” said EU Home Affairs Commissioner Ylva Johanson.
EU Council President Charles Michel acknowledged the challenges facing Europe when he visited Madrid on Saturday to tour Spain’s emergency center for Afghan refugees.
“Partnerships with third countries will be the focus of our discussion in the European Union. We need to adopt strategies that ensure migration in an orderly and consistent manner, ”he said. “We need to find that balance between the dignity of the European Union and the ability to defend the interests of the European Union.”
Greece, the picturesque islands off the Turkish coast that were the European entry point for hundreds of thousands of Syrians, Iraqis, Afghans and others six years ago, has made it clear it does not want to relive this crisis.
Migration Minister Notis Mitarachi said Greece will not agree to be the “gateway for irregular flows into the EU” and that he considers Turkey a safe place for Afghans.
This talk makes Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan look red. His country already hosts 3.6 million Syrians and hundreds of thousands of Afghans, and has used the threat of sending them to Europe to gain political influence.
“Turkey has no duty, responsibility or obligation to be Europe’s refugee warehouse,” Erdogan warned in a speech on Thursday.
The Turkish president spoke on Friday about migration from Afghanistan in a rare phone call with Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis, and is also discussing the issue with Iran.
Attitudes towards migrants have hardened in Europe after the 2015 crisis, fueling the rise of far-right parties such as the Alternative for Germany, parliament’s largest opposition party ahead of parliamentary elections. of Germany next month.
Even in Turkey, migrants from Syria and Afghanistan, once treated as Muslim Brotherhood, are increasingly viewed with suspicion as the country faces rising inflation and unemployment.
Recognizing the “unease” of the citizenry over migration, Erdogan noted how his government has strengthened the eastern border with Iran with military, gendarmerie, police and the new wall, which has been under construction since 2017.
PA journalists near the Turkish border with Iran met with dozens of Afghans this week, mostly young men, but also some women and children. When they smuggled the border at night in small groups, they said they left their country to escape the Taliban, violence and poverty.
“The situation in Afghanistan was intense,” said a young man, Hassan Khan. “The Taliban captured all of Afghanistan. But there is no work in Afghanistan, we were forced to come here. “
Observers say there is still no evidence of any mass movement at the border. Turkish authorities say they have intercepted 35,000 Afghans entering the country illegally so far this year, compared to more than 50,000 in 2020 and more than 200,000 in 2019.
The UNCHR estimates that 90% of the 2.6 million Afghan refugees abroad live in neighboring Iran and Pakistan. Both countries also host a large number of Afghans who set out in search of better economic opportunities.
In comparison, some 630,000 Afghans have applied for asylum in EU countries in the last ten years, with the highest figures in Germany, Hungary, Greece and Sweden, according to the EU statistics agency.
Jan Egeland, secretary general of the Norwegian Refugee Council, said it is not a forgotten conclusion that the Taliban takeover will lead to a new refugee crisis.
“I would warn against a self-fulfilling prophecy,” he told AP. The Afghans are “scared, baffled but also waiting for a long, long war to end and perhaps now they can avoid crossfire.”
He said much depends on the Taliban allowing further development and humanitarian work.
“If you have a collapse in public services and if there is a major food crisis, there will surely be a massive movement of people,” Egeland said.
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Ritter reported from Rome. AP reporters Suzan Fraser in Ankara, Turkey; Renata Brito in Barcelona, Spain; Lorne Cook in Brussels; Frank Jordans in Berlin; Elena Becatoros in Athens, Greece, and Angela Charlton in Paris contributed to this report.
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Follow Afghanistan coverage on AP at https://apnews.com/hub/afghanistan and migration at https://apnews.com/hub/migration