- The election will mark the end of Angela Merkel’s 15-year term as German chancellor. And surveys point to several different results.
- “These are not normal elections,” Lars Feld, director of the Walter Eucken Institute, a German think tank, told CNBC’s Steve Sedgwick.
- The latest projections indicate a victory for Scholz’s SPD with 24% of the vote, followed by the Conservative Alliance (CDU / CSU) with 21% and the Green Party with 17%.
LONDON – Germany’s upcoming elections will be crucial to the country’s stability and the European Union, experts from the European House Ambrosetti Forum told CNBC. It comes as surveys point to several possible outcomes.
“It’s not a normal election,” Lars Feld, director of the Walter Eucken Institute, a German think tank, told CNBC’s Steve Sedgwick. “We don’t have the incumbent, we don’t have someone to defend the position, and so everyone has a good chance of becoming chancellor.”
The September 26 elections will mark the end of Angela Merkel’s term as German chancellor after more than 15 years in power.
At the start of the election campaign, Merkel’s successor as leader of the Conservative party – Armin Laschet – seemed on its way to becoming the next chancellor.
However, his leadership has been challenged on several fronts; first, by the appointment of Annalena Baerbock as a candidate for the Green Party and, more recently, by Olaf Scholz, leader of the Socialist Party and current Minister of Finance.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel attends a press conference after video talks with federal heads of government on the vaccination strategy at the Federal Chancellery on March 23, 2021 in Berlin, Germany.
Swimming pool | Getty Images News | Getty Images
The latest projections indicate a victory for Scholz’s SPD with 24% of the vote, followed by the Conservative Alliance (CDU / CSU) with 21% and the Green Party with 17%. Political experts say at least three coalitions are possible given current polls.
“It will probably take three, four, five months this time too, because we will have a three-party coalition and bringing them together will not be easy,” Feld said of the subsequent negotiations.
He added that once this process is completed, “we will have a new chancellor and then there will be stability again.”
Political stability in Germany is not only important for the country, but also for the European Union in general. Germany is the bloc’s leading economy and has a significant influence on the political direction adopted by the 27 member states.
“It is definitely of crucial importance … We need to have significant stability within the German government to move forward and maintain the European momentum that is very strong at the moment,” said Valerio De Molli, CEO of the European House Ambrosetti Forum, he told CNBC.
Germany was one of the main forces in last year’s decision to issue common European debts to support the bloc during the coronavirus-induced crisis.
“Everyone realized the incredible power of Europe and the European Commission despite the many biases and bureaucratic difficulties that remain,” De Molli said of the decision to issue common debts. “The EU’s next-generation plan presented incredible speed, incredible dimension.”
The plan, also known as the new generation of the EU or even “crown bonds”, is designed to raise up to 800 billion euros ($ 950 billion) and has already begun to be deployed in the 27 nations .
The idea of common debt across the EU has historically been controversial, with more conservative nations skeptical about supporting highly indebted countries. But hesitation was overcome in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic.
Some have wondered if this is something unique or if the blog could re-use the same instrument in the future.
“When you have a government led by Olaf Scholz, the Greens and the left in a coalition, we will have a good chance that these European ‘good crowns’ will last forever, that we will have the chance to incur public debt at EU level for more time, ”Feld said, noting that the German population does not believe this would be“ useful ”.