JERUSALEM (AP) – Exit polls indicate there is no clear winner in Tuesday’s Israeli election, leaving Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s fate uncertain and pointing to continued political stalemate.
Polls on Israel’s top three television networks showed Netanyahu and his religious and nationalist allies, as well as a wide variety of opponents, both down from the parliamentary majority. This could set the stage for weeks of paralysis and even for an unprecedented fifth consecutive election. Output surveys are often inaccurate and official results may not be known for days.
Exit polls conducted by channels 11, 12 and 13 were almost identical, showing Netanyahu and his allies with 53-54 seats in the 120-seat Knesset, Israel’s parliament. His opponents were expected to win 59, and Naftali Bennett’s Yamina match would win 7-8.
If the final results match the exit polls, the two sides will have to present a court to Bennett, a former Netanyahu ally with strained relations with the prime minister, to form a majority of at least 61 seats.
Bennett shares Netanyahu’s nationalist ideology, but has indicated that he would be open to cooperating with his rivals if given the opportunity to be prime minister.
The election is widely regarded as a referendum on Netanyahu’s divisive rule, and once again opinion polls had predicted an extremely tight race.
The three-month campaign was largely devoid of substantive issues and focused largely on Netanyahu’s personality and whether he should remain in office. In contrast to previous elections where he faced a clear rival, this time a wide variety of parties are trying to overthrow him, having little in common beyond their shared animosity towards him.
“Vote, vote, vote, vote, vote,” Netanyahu said after voting in Jerusalem, his wife, Sara, by his side.
Netanyahu, 71, who even after 12 years in office remains a tireless defender, continued throughout the day. At one point, he walked down a Mediterranean beach begging people over the loudspeakers to go vote.
“This is the moment of truth for the state of Israel,” said one of its challengers, opposition leader Yair Lapid, as he voted in Tel Aviv.
Netanyahu has emphasized Israel’s major coronavirus vaccination campaign. It moved aggressively to get enough vaccines for Israel’s 9.3 million people, and in three months, the country has vaccinated about 80 percent of its adult population. This has allowed the government to open restaurants, shops and the airport just in time for election day.
He has also tried to portray himself as a world statesman, pointing to the four diplomatic agreements he reached with Arab countries last year. These agreements were mediated by his next ally, then-President Donald Trump.
Netanyahu’s opponents, including a trio of former aides who share his nationalist ideology but oppose what they say is his autocratic leadership style, see things very differently.
Netanyahu is said to have attacked many aspects of the pandemic, most notably by allowing his ultra-Orthodox allies to ignore the blocking rules and fuel a high rate of infection for much of the year. More than 6,000 Israelis have died from COVID-19, and the economy remains weak with double-digit unemployment.
They also point to Netanyahu’s corruption process, saying someone accused of serious crimes is unfit to run the country. Netanyahu has been accused of fraud, breach of trust and acceptance of bribes in a series of scandals that he rejected as a witch hunt by a legal system and hostile media.
Even Netanyahu’s reputation as a statesman has suffered a bit in recent days. The United Arab Emirates, the largest of the four Arab nations to establish official diplomatic ties with Israel, made it clear last week that it did not want to be used as part of Netanyahu’s re-election after he was forced to call off a visit to the country. The Biden administration has also kept its distance, in contrast to the support it received in Trump’s last election.
As a reminder of the country’s numerous security challenges, Palestinian militants from the Gaza Strip fired a rocket at Israel on Tuesday at the end and fired airstrikes at southern Israel. The Israeli army said the rocket landed in an open space.
Opinion polls predict a tight run, with the possibility that both Netanyahu and his opponents will fail to reach a parliamentary majority. This could plunge the country into an unprecedented fifth consecutive election later this year.
Tuesday’s election was sparked by the disintegration of an emergency government formed last May between Netanyahu and his main rival at the time. The alliance was hit by fights and elections were forced after no agreement was reached on a budget in December.
“It would be better if we didn’t have to vote, you know, four times in two years,” Jerusalem voter Bruce Rosen said. “He’s a little tired.”
At 6pm (1,600 GMT), 51.5% of eligible voters had voted, a drop of almost 5 percentage points from the previous election a year ago, the Israeli Electoral Commission announced.
Netanyahu’s opponents have accused him of fomenting the stalemate in hopes of establishing a kinder parliament that will grant him immunity from prosecution.
Netanyahu hopes to form a government with his traditional hard-line religious and nationalist allies. These include a couple of ultra-Orthodox parties and a small religious party that includes openly racist and homophobic candidates.
This time, much will depend on the performance of a handful of small parties fighting to win 3.25% of the vote to enter the 120-seat Knesset, or parliament.
While Netanyahu’s Likud was expected to come out as the biggest party, no party has ever won a 61-seat majority. Both he and his rivals must win the support of smaller allied parties to form a majority coalition.
Recent polls have predicted that several parties were hovering around the electoral threshold. The fact that no one could enter parliament would have a significant impact on the balance between Netanyahu and his opponents.
Another complicated factor was absentee voting. Up to 15% of the electorate was expected to vote outside their home districts, a larger number than usual due to special accommodations for those with COVID-19 or in quarantine. The government set up special polling stations and even brought ballot boxes to hospital beds so that people could vote safely.
These votes are counted separately in Jerusalem, i.e. the final results may not be known for days. Given the tough run, it could be difficult to predict the outcome before the final count is completed.
Once the results arrive, the focus will be on the country’s top president, Reuven Rivlin.
He will hold a series of meetings with party leaders and then choose the one he believes has the best chances of forming a government as the appointed prime minister. This task is usually given, but not always, to the head of the largest party. This will provoke weeks of horse trading as the appointed prime minister tries to put together a government with promises of generous budgets and powerful ministries to its potential partners.
Voting in Jerusalem on Tuesday, Rivlin said the stalemate has come at a price.
“Four elections in two years erode public confidence in the democratic process,” he said, even as he urged Israelis to vote again. “There is no other way.”