Fifteen predictions for the new year

NEW HAVEN, CONNECTICUT – My habit is that as the year approaches, I offer my predictions for next year, but only after doing what all commenters should do, evaluating my predictions for the next year. year just ended. So before we get to my predictions for 2021, in the second half of this column, let’s see how I did it in 2020.

We put one of last year’s predictions at the top:

“The Washington nationals will overcome the loss of superstar Bryce Harper as a free agent and win the World Series over the Houston Astros.”

Nailed accurately! If you need help at the end of the year, Las Vegas or ESPN, give me a call.

The 2020 dashboard

Now, as for the others, I predicted:

That Amazon would react to bad publicity during the 2018 HQ2 search by promising to put another headquarters in a part of the country in financial difficulties. Instead, the company is donating millions of dollars for “affordable housing” in northern Virginia, where its new campus is planned. Mostly false, but I did get Amazon’s reason right.

That U.S. President Donald Trump would get neither his border wall nor a Fed that was closer to his views. Is true. That the level of CO2 in the atmosphere would continue to rise. While there are no final figures for 2020, this one will surely end up in the “true” column. That melting Arctic ice cap would continue to pour thousands of gallons of water per second into the oceans. It is true and true again.

That a significant number of U.S. armed forces would remain in both Afghanistan and Syria. True, despite the president’s efforts in Syria. That the New England Patriots would win Super Bowl LIII. Is true. It’s not a difficult prediction, but it’s still true.

That allegations of fraud in the liquidation fund established to pay former professional football players who have suffered neurocognitive damage would turn out to be a great story. Unfortunately, that is true.

Last month’s federal allegations were great news. That, despite investigations into Trump’s conduct, no indictment resolution would come to the word of the House of Representatives to vote on it in 2020. False, but so close. If only they had waited two more weeks!

The final report of that special counsel Robert Mueller would find no clear evidence that Trump committed a crime (true) and that NeverTrumpers would try to raise $ 1 billion to pay the president his resignation. (I was joking mostly, but I wasn’t wrong.)

That homeschoolers would become virtual reality as a primary educational tool and that over time others would embrace the idea. It still seems inevitable to me, but too early to tell.

That during the summer of 2020, Marvel would finally announce a release date for the second film of “Black Panther” (true, until the time of year); that the highest grossing film of the year would be “Avengers: Endgame,” if we count the actual revenue during the 2020 calendar (true, both globally and nationally); and that if we counted all the revenue from the film, it would win the premiere in late December, “Star Wars: Episode IX” (I thought it was a slam dunk, but amid lukewarm criticism and cracks in the fan base Now i think this may not work.)

That despite the skepticism openly expressed by the federal judge overseeing the case, the $ 69 billion merger of CVS and Aetna would go ahead. Is true.

Those wealthy progressives who continue to mock Republican tax cuts as a gift to the rich will not offer the U.S. Treasury their profits from the rate cut. True, and now members of Congress of high-taxed blue states are demanding that their well-heeled supporters receive an even greater reduction. And that – I’m sorry, but I can’t resist repeating – the Washington nationals would win the World Series at the Houston Astros!

2021 forecasts

Now we come to my predictions for 2021. As always, not all are seriously thought out, but some are thought more seriously than they might seem. I will let the reader find out what they are.

1. With the exception of Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, Democratic presidential candidates will condemn the new limits on the Secure Act on the ability of non-spouses who inherit retirement accounts to extend their disbursements over a long period of time. In particular, candidates will accept that the adult children they inherit must be able to leave the money invested for as long as they want. (Those who voted in favor of the new rules will say they did not understand the implications.) Most candidates, however, will stop promising revocation and promise unspecified adjustments.

2. Due to government espionage less than the growing popularity of the Amazon Ring and similar devices, the number of surveillance cameras in the world will blow quickly after recent estimates of one billion. By the end of 2021, all but one fraction of the outer spaces of most cities in the world will be videotaped somewhere and there will have been major incursions into neighborhoods and towns. (Say goodbye to the “shadow map”).

3. Speaking of technology, for the second year in a row, the final appropriation for NASA will be insufficient to allow significant progress in its goal of returning to the moon in 2024. Instead of delivering the dream, advocates will push for the realization of ‘a a couple of years down.

4. Despite concerns from consumer activists, the merger between T-Mobile and Sprint will survive judicial scrutiny.

5. The New England Patriots will win the Super Bowl LIV in February. No, I’m not a particular Patriots fan. But anyway I have them every year, so … go. Even if you’re a hateful Patriot, you know I’m right.

6. Due to global warming, the rate at which the Arctic ice cap melts will continue to increase. (This has become an even easier prediction than choosing patriots.) Meanwhile, such innovative ideas for mitigating how to pump water from the river south instead of letting it flow north will be rejected by climate change skeptics. as too expensive and by climate change activists as a distraction. of the urgent need to sign many treaties.

7. Swirling rumors that Russia could annex its longtime Belarusian ally will push dictator Alexander Lukashenko to seek rapprochement with the US and the West. Belarus already imports US products worth about half a billion dollars a year, with fertilizers at the forefront. Russian leader Vladimir Putin will see the closer ties between Washington and Minsk as a strategic threat and will begin to sound his sabers. Trump will assure everyone that his “good friend” Putin “will allow Belarus to go its own way.” Experts will not only jump to “good friend” but also to “allow”.

8. The highest grossing film of the year will be “Wonder Woman 1984” by Warner Brothers. People will look around and say, “Wait, isn’t this intellectual property Disney’s property? Is this even allowed? “Disney, wondering the same thing, will take quick steps to fix the problem.

9. It will pass a congressional ban on vaporization products and will be endorsed by Trump, well in advance of serious clinical studies on potential health hazards.

10. Despite news to the contrary, Lieutenant Governor Justin Fairfax, accused of rape by two black women, will unequivocally announce that he will not apply for state governance or even another term.

11. The US stock market will continue to grow during the first half of the year, providing several new highs. As political conventions approach over the summer, the market will begin to stutter. When the election season comes to full swing, we will see a major drop, which the left will call a collapse and the right will call for a correction. After the election, the markets will rise sharply.

12. The Los Angeles Angels will be the surprise team of the baseball season, but will lose in the playoffs to the Houston Astros, who will go on to defeat the Atlanta Braves (the other surprise team) in the World Series. (Additional prediction: if Braves star Josh Donaldson jumps to the Washington Nationals, the nationals will once again reach the World Series, where the Astros will take revenge for 2020).

13. Speaking of sports, no one in the media will offer any excuse other than the most disinterested in the anxiety and stupidity of posting all those photos of the army and navy game and wondering if the cadets they had surrounded his thumbs and index fingers flashed white power signals.

14. Despite concerns raised in other countries, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration will adhere to its position that there is no scientific evidence of any health problems from the traces of nitrosamines in some drugs with recipe.

15. In the presidential election, Democrats will go around Arizona, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, but Republicans will go around New Hampshire. The result will be a tie at the polling station. According to Article II, paragraph 1, of the Constitution, the House of Representatives must choose the decision. Democrats cheer up the insight of the Framers until they realize that when the House sits down to break an electoral tie, each state gets one vote. At the time, Democrats recalled that the Framers were white supremacists trying to protect slavery and that the views of these monsters should have no role in contemporary governance.

The 26 states that have a majority delegation in the Red House will vote Republicans; the 22 states that have a mostly blue delegation vote Democrats. The other two states, where the delegations are divided, will not cast any votes, resulting in another tie.

The issue will be brought to court. A letter signed by several hundred law professors will argue that all judges and judges appointed by Trump should be challenged, as they are likely to be biased. Television commentators will resume the shout. Conservative bloggers will respond that the argument is another “coup attempt”.

Before the courts can rule, political parties will agree to hold new presidential elections in February 2021. Under the agreement, Trump will remain in office until then, but will not be able to take any action without the agreement of Congress. Demands will be made immediately to block the plan, including Trump himself, who will claim that having not been defeated in the election, he should win by default.

Unfortunately, we don’t know how the lawsuits will turn out, because my crystal ball only extends until 2021.

These are my predictions for 2021. For you, my faithful readers, I wish you a new year full of fear, joy, rationality, civility and love.

Stephen L. Carter is an opinion columnist for Bloomberg. He is a law professor at Yale University and was a clerk to U.S. Supreme Court Judge Thurgood Marshall. Her novels include “The Emperor of the Ocean Park” and her latest non-fiction book is “Invisible: The Forgotten Story of the Black Woman Lawyer Who Took Down America’s Powerful Mobster.”