A year after the World Health Organization declared COVID-19 a pandemic, the end of this pandemic is within reach.
The big picture: The death and suffering caused by the coronavirus have been much worse than many people expected a year ago, but the vaccines have been much better.
Flashback: “In a nutshell, it will get worse,” Anthony Fauci told a congressional court on March 11, 2020, the day the WHO formally declared COVID-19 a global pandemic.
- Today a year ago the United States had confirmed 1,000 coronavirus infections. We are now approaching 30 million.
- In the early days of the pandemic, Americans were terrified by White House projections – reported by respected models – that 100,000 to 240,000 Americans could die from the virus. That real number now stands at just under 530,000.
- Many models at the time thought the virus would reach its peak last May. At that time it was no longer close to its height. The deadliest month of the pandemic was January.
Yes, but: Last March, even the sunniest optimists did not expect the U.S. to have a vaccine by now.
- They certainly did not anticipate that more than 300 million shots would already be in arms around the world, and they did not think that eventual vaccines, whenever they arrived, would be very close to the effectiveness that resulted.
Where is it: President Biden has said that all American adults who want a vaccine will be able to get one at the end of May and the country is on track to meet that goal.
- The U.S. manages more than 2 million shots a day, on average. Approximately 25% of the adult population has received at least one shot.
- The federal government has bought more doses than this country will be able to use: 300 million from Pfizer, 300 million from Modern and 200 million from Johnson & Johnson.
- Only Pfizer and Moderna orders would be more than enough to completely vaccinate all American adults. (Vaccines are not yet authorized for use in children.)
Yes, millions of Americans they are still anxiously awaiting their first shot and browsing registration websites that are often frustrating and horrible.
- But the supply of available vaccines is expected to increase this month and companies say most of these doses should be available by the end of May.
- Cases, hospitalizations, and deaths fall sharply while vaccinations increase.
The summary: Measured in death, loss, isolation and financial ruin, a year has felt like an eternity. Measured as the time between the declaration of a pandemic and the vaccination of 60 million Americans, a year is an instant.
- The virus has not been defeated and may never go away completely. Returning to normalcy will be a moving goal. Nothing is over yet. But the end of the worst, the long and brutal nightmare of death and suffering is approaching.
In depth: Coronavirus vaccines have broken expectations