By Tal Axelrod
• New York City is advancing toward its run for mayor as a large number of Democrats and some Republicans as a jockey before the June 22 primary.
The final winner of the mayoral race will seize a city in crisis facing high levels of coronavirus infections, the economic consequences of the pandemic, the crimes it affects and other issues.
The race has already garnered a large number of candidates with various experiences who want to replace Mayor Bill de Blasio
Bill de BlasioCuomo faces increased scrutiny over deaths at COVID-19 nursing homes New York State warns hospitals to vaccinate staff before seniors: report states fail in technology and privacy: Biden must take the lead (D), pandemic surveillance has been widely controlled. He is prohibited from running for a third consecutive term.
Among the Democratic candidates running for a seat in the Nov. 2 general election is the former presidential candidate. Andrew Yang
Andrew YangYang Meets Donation Requirements for City Funds in New York City Mayor’s Race Survey Finds Yang with Big Advantage in New York City Mayor’s Race The Hill’s Morning Report – Presented by Facebook, Brooklyn District President Eric Adams, City Controller Scott Stringer, and former Blasio Maya Wiley attorney.
Here are five things to keep in mind as the race unfolds.
How is the coronavirus
impacting the race?
The race for mayor looks different from any other New York City in recent history. Retail policy has long been the staple of the campaign in the city’s five municipalities, with candidates often seen hand-in-hand with out-of-shop voters, on street corners and at local events to gain recognition. and name support.
However, this has been drastically reduced during the coronavirus pandemic, a change that became apparent when Yang announced earlier this month that he tested positive for the virus and would cancel his face-to-face activities.
“They can’t do what they’ve always done,” said Hank Sheinkopf, a longtime Democratic consultant.
“New York is a place where people campaign, get on the subway, are out of bus lines and restaurants. It’s a very outdoor environment where people are much more personally engaged with the candidates. And a part of the decision-making that consists of deciding who the mayor is when he sees who has the most physical pain when he gets up in the first morning, enters at most at night and is seen at more stops ”.
The coronavirus could also affect voter turnout, given the severity of the pandemic that has affected the area.
Historically, local elections in the city have been affected by low voter turnout, with turnout sometimes even less than 20 percent.
But observers suggest that the severity of the pandemic, in addition to an extended period of early voting, could re-generate this political calculation.
“The hardest thing to do is get someone who doesn’t normally run in the local primary election to start worrying or thinking that their vote is important, and so I think that’s the most important factor. It will be the COVID serious enough. how to get a much wider group of New Yorkers to the polls? ”asked Kathryn Wylde, who runs the Partnership for New York City.
What change of people are you looking for in Blasio?
De Blasio’s city management has been widely criticized in recent years and this criticism has only increased during the coronavirus pandemic.
Its approval rating is less than 50 percent, according to an October poll. A Democrat running in 2020 even used Blasio as a foil, going so far as to call him the “worst mayor in New York City history.”
“Public opinion data says it would be difficult for Bill de Blasio to win even a significant portion of the city’s electorate if he were allowed to run again,” Sheinkopf said.
Wylde said voters are primarily looking for a candidate who can propose the kind of clear plan to deal with the pandemic that de Blasio has struggled to articulate.
“Political pronouncements don’t solve problems, and I think people have seen that this plays into this very serious situation when every day we have a different solution depending on the political winds of the moment,” he said.
Can Yang maintain its top-ranked status?
Yang, who gained national prominence during his surprisingly strong presidential campaign, is one of the first candidates in the Democratic primary, with a poll earlier this month showing him a big advantage over his competitors.
He is by far the best-known candidate in the race, with 84% of respondents having heard of him. Stringer is the second best known candidate, with 66% name recognition.
Now comes the hardest thing for Yang: maintaining that striker status.
While the employer maintains an expansive presence on social media and a fierce and loyal following, he has come out the door with the first glasses. Among other things, he sought answers about why he lived in his suburban home during the pandemic and why he did not vote in the 2000 and 2012 presidential elections or in all New York City mayoral elections. between 2001 and 2017.
Beyond these missteps, Yang also has no experience in government at a time when voters may be looking for a firm hand to get them out of the pandemic.
“I think it will be very difficult for those who do not have a history of public service and an intimate knowledge of the city to convince voters that they are the managers the city needs. So I think there is a built-in advantage for those that they’ve been in government, that people know the pre-pandemic and know their community, not just by a zoom appearance, ”Wylde said.
Voters ’familiarity with other candidates is also likely to increase as more campaign ads appear.
“Andrew Yang’s name recognition advantage disappears overnight when the air war begins,” said Eric Phillips, a former Blasio spokesman. “Can you continue to lead a race when voters know the other candidates? I’m skeptical. ”
What will be the role of the votes by qualified election in the primaries?
New York City is using for the first time this year classified election votes in mayoral primaries. This means that if no candidate gets 50% or more of the votes in the first round, subsequent options will be considered until a candidate comes out with the most votes.
This could result in fewer negative attacks for fear of alienating supporters of another candidate and even leading to unusual alliances.
“People will make arrangements to find out how they support each other to get to first and second place,” Sheinkopf said.
The most established candidates in city politics can benefit from the new system.
“I think the by-election vote suggests that those candidates who are more familiar with their background in New York City’s grassroots politics will benefit from a situation where people can say,‘ Well, this candidate, i saw their ad and they really appealed to me so i will put them first but i think it is a safe bet to vote for another candidate who has a background in public service and i know he has never done anything d ‘outrageous, he’s a decent human being, whatever it is,’ ”Wylde said.
Does a Republican have a chance in the general election?
The short answer is: Barely.
Registered Democrats outnumber Republicans by a margin of nearly 7 to 1 in the city, and their blue hue intensified during the Trump administration. Outside of Staten Island, Republican victories in the city have been increasingly scarce.
Wylde said a Republican would not have the chance “unless there is a destructive world event.” When asked to clarify, he only said that an event of the same magnitude as the 9/11 terrorist attacks could shake the race enough to give a real shot to a Republican.
Sheinkopf put it more bluntly: “A running Republican has to save his money and buy a house.”