The number is rising, but has risen from 10 percent to 20 percent in the past two weeks. According to Scorpino’s estimate, a positive rate of 20 percent will increase hospital admissions by 50 percent over the next two weeks.
This will exacerbate the already complicated trend: according to state data, COVID hospitalization in Massachusetts has increased by 158 percent in recent weeks.
Put it all together, it certainly implies one thing: more stringent restrictions, if not a shutdown, are coming, or should be, According to hospital leaders and epidemiologists, the end of December.
“I would be very shocked if there were no significant setbacks or closures in the state by January 1,” said Eric Dixon, chief executive of Umas Memorial Healthcare in Worcester.
Throughout the epidemic Baker has made one thing clear: he will not allow the hospital system in Massachusetts to be overwhelmed by COVID-19 patients. He looks for a call twice a week with hospital executives to get updates on positive rates, COVID hospitalization, ventilator capacity and more. He is proficient in their data and is in his organ, Former Health Administrator and Health Secretary at Weld Administration.
Because of the health care system, Baker has made changes: on Monday, he ordered hospitals to cancel some select surgeries to free the beds. On Tuesday, he tightened some restrictions, which will force some businesses to close and others to reduce capacity.
Baker and health leaders are seeing a flood of lawsuits related to Thanksgiving meetings because it could take up to two weeks for the victim to be admitted to the hospital. The fear is that the crowds around Christmas will trigger another uprising.
Some prominent public health experts, mayors and legislators have been urging Baker to implement additional restrictions such as temporarily closing indoor food, casinos and gyms. Overall. On Friday, New York Governor Andrew Cuomo again banned indoor food in New York City, since Monday, as COVID infections have been on the rise there.
Boston State Representative John Santiago says it is not working now. With more business closures than necessary, leading to more severe locking. “You wait too long, you get worse,” said emergency room doctor Santiago.
Baker spokeswoman Lizzie Caitton said the governor would always slow down the spread of the virus. In addition to the latest restrictions, in November he ordered restaurants to close early and urged people to stay home for the night.
“Management is constantly analyzing public health data,” he said. “All options for future action are on the table if needed.”
However, the timing of the second shutdown could not be worse. Severe rollbacks before Christmas can affect important holiday seasons for retailers and restaurants. Meanwhile, unemployment benefits for some will expire at the end of the month, and small business owners may have spent federal aid from the first stimulus package, and Congress may not be able to agree to another round of aid. .
Like other parts of the country, Massachusetts has been hit by a second wave of the virus. A forecast from the University of Washington indicates that infections here will go up in mid-January and that daily deaths will increase by the end of January. COVID-19, which was the leading cause of death in Massachusetts last week, is on track to take an additional 4,000 lives by April, according to the model.
Vaccine, first dose Some of them will be managed by health workers in a few days and are not expected to be significant Once available to a wide population, control the infection rate until late spring. Meanwhile, as they focus on different data points than Scorpino, hospital leaders also see positive rates coming in at the high end of their ratings.
In a note to staff on Tuesday, Kevin Thap, chief executive of Beth Israel Lahey Health, noted the dramatic increase in the number of COVID-19 patients in the state’s second-largest hospital setting.
“We have entered the most urgent stage of firefighting,” Thub wrote. “Although less than half of our April high water index, the trend is alarming, doubling our numbers. [COVID-19] Inpatients in the last 14 days. ”
Dixon, CEO of UMass Memorial, is concerned about dealing with this second wave based on the current hospital admission rate. Before Thanksgiving, the number of COVID-19 patients admitted to the hospital increased by about 10 percent per month; Now it is about 20 percent.
“Boy, if it’s growing 20 percent a week from now until February 1, that’s the margin,” Dixon said. “I don’t know if we can manage it.”
UMass Memorial helped set up a 220-bed hospital at the DCU Center in Worcester, and called on retirees and health workers as staff.
Like other hospital administrators, Dixon is not worried about having enough beds and more about having enough staff to support COVID-19 treatment. His staff is exhausted and stretched thin, and some are reused for virus testing or vaccine delivery. Also, not everyone can work in the training or COVID department. Of the approximately 8,000 employees who do medical work, about 200 are unable to work because they have the virus or are isolated due to an exposure, he said.
On further restrictions, Dixon said Baker was in an invincible position – balancing savings jobs by saving lives.
“The governor has done an amazing job,” he said. “For all the money in the world I don’t like that man’s job now.”
Compared to other states, hospitals in Massachusetts are in a better position to handle the second wave, said Ali Mogdat, chief strategic officer for population health at the University of Washington.
Mokdad, who advises governors on epidemics, said the onset of winter in Massachusetts was the cause of increasing cases, despite a mask mask compliance of about 80 percent and a restricted economy; People spend more time indoors, which poses a risk of close contact that can spread the virus.
“We all went inside the house,” Mogdat said. “Seasonal cases are on the rise.”
Scorpino, a professor at the Northeast, worries that the state has no choice, but a total shutdown.
“It simply came to our notice then There should be no other way but to lock up, ”Scorpino said.
Victoria McRae of the Globe staff contributed to this report.
Shirley Leung is a business columnist. You can access her at [email protected].