France and Germany regain the kingdoms when Britain leaves the economic orbit of the EU

In contrast, as the UK prepares to leave the EU’s economic orbit on 1 January, the EU has regained confidence, helped in part by a revived Franco-German partnership and encouraged by the early arrival of the EU. Biden administration in Washington. Meanwhile, Paris, the bloc’s current dominant foreign policy actor, is driving the debate on everything from relations with Washington and Moscow to expanding the EU’s military capabilities.

Last week’s Brexit deal will have to be approved by EU governments on Tuesday and the British parliament on Wednesday to allow it to enter into force provisionally on Friday. The European Parliament will consider the 1,246-page agreement, published in full on Saturday for the first time, in the new year. The main EU lawmakers from the main bloc parties have already received the satisfaction of the agreement.

Over several years of bitter talks over Brexit, many feared that the failure of the EU and the UK to reach an agreement on their future relations could poison bilateral ties, even threatening the UK’s still significant contributions. to European security, from the Baltic states to counter-terrorism. campaign in the African Sahel.

Britain’s influence on the continent, a useful channel for Washington to influence EU plans on trade, fiscal and foreign policy priorities, is greatly diminished. However, Thursday’s agreement between Britain and the EU on future economic, trade and security ties should prevent a permanent rift between US and European allies.

Opinion polls show that the repeated British political crises since the referendum have raised support elsewhere for EU membership. Many anti-EU populist champions are now calling for reform of the bloc, rather than leaving it.

This year, the EU has agreed on a huge recovery fund to help the bloc get out of its fall from the coronavirus, a deal unthinkable a few years ago. With an agreement on Brexit now pocketed, some officials believe the EU has turned the corner.

“We showed that if we are really under pressure, we get things done,” Michael Clauss, Germany’s ambassador to the EU, said in December. “So we faced the challenges and that’s why, also psychologically, we all feel like we’re in a stronger position now.”

The Franco-German alliance is key to the revival of the eurozone, which has gained strength with the departure of the only EU member state that was equal in economic and strategic terms.

Just a year ago, France and Germany came face to face with many of Europe’s biggest challenges.

Germany had watered down most of the rubbish proposed by French President Emmanuel Macron to reform the eurozone, France blocked EU enlargement, German Chancellor Angela Merkel responded to Macron’s criticism of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization , while Berlin distrusted Paris’ efforts to thaw ties with Russia.

That changed this spring.

Abandoning a decade of opposition to the issuance of common debts, Merkel backed in May a proposal for the European Commission, the EU executive, to issue debts to finance a bailout package that would deliver hundreds of billions. euros to member states to help them during the pandemic.

Two months later, the EU agreed on a € 750 billion program, equivalent to $ 920 billion.

If the UK had still been a member of the EU, the bloc could have been able to pull Britain out of the fund. Still, British lawmakers would have been forced to hand over new fiscal powers to the EU executive, which they would have been reluctant to do.

With the departure of Britain, France, also a member of the veto power and the nuclear core of the UN Security Council, is one of the few European countries with a global military presence and the will to deploy it.

Macron has pushed for a strategic autonomy program, which includes building military capabilities to allow the EU to operate independently of major powers such as China and the United States. With Berlin, it seeks to strengthen the EU defense sector and offer stronger protections to industries.

France has pushed a hard line in a growing conflict between the EU and Turkey over natural gas resources and Ankara’s military movements in its neighborhood. Mr Macron has continued his spread in Moscow despite the poisoning of opposition leader Alexei Navalny.

There is caution about Mr Macron’s policies in some parts of the bloc, especially over any measures taken by NATO. Yet without Britain, these concerns are sidelined.

“On European defense, it comes out in a very French way,” said Ian Bond, director of foreign policy at the Center for European Reform. “Strategic autonomy would not have come as far as it would have been if the British had still been at the table.”

For Washington, this could create challenges even as EU leaders say they are eager to work with President-elect Joe Biden. For years, the UK had blocked EU efforts that feared undermining or duplicating NATO’s work. Britain has also become a much sharper critique of China and would probably have pushed the EU towards closer coordination with the United States over the challenges facing Beijing.

Instead, the EU is betting on an average position. Brussels recently began a formal dialogue with the US on China. However, the EU, driven by Berlin, is about to complete a comprehensive investment agreement with Beijing, prompting warnings from the Biden team.

Gnawing on the renewed confidence of the EU are doubts about the strength and resilience of the recovered Franco-German partnership.

Paris and Berlin still differ on eurozone reforms, a weakness that officials fear could leave them vulnerable to a new financial or banking crisis in the single currency area. EU power plants have failed to end the bloc’s differences in migration policy or heal a toxic east-west rift over the application of the rule of law and democratic freedoms.

Next year Mrs. Merkel, chancellor for a decade and a half, will have to retire. Some see a new period of uncertainty, even as German diplomats insist Berlin’s European policy will not change much.

“The conflicts underlying the EU have not disappeared,” said Fabian Zuleeg, chief executive of the Brussels-based European Policy Center. “Just taking out an actor … could mean there’s one less source of conflict. It doesn’t mean we’re able to make leaps in integration.”

Write to Laurence Norman to [email protected]