Californians will decide on Tuesday whether to keep Gavin Newsom in office when the election that left the Democratic governor fighting for his political life ends.
The government recovery effort is only the second in California history to get to the vote and is a rare opportunity for Republicans to take control in an intense blue state. Voters are asked two questions: Should Newsom be removed from office, and if he is remembered, who should replace him? Millions of Californians have already voted, by mail or at early voting locations, and registered voters will have until Tuesday evening to choose, in a special election that costs the state $ 276 million.
Newsom, who has been a widely popular governor since he was elected in 2018, found himself in a peculiar position after a Republican-led withdrawal effort gained momentum amid the state’s worst pandemic.
He looked confident toward the finish line, spending Monday campaigning with Joe Biden. Surveys that had pointed out danger to him over the summer have recently given him a more comfortable lead. Meanwhile, the main Republican challenger, right-wing host Larry Elder, has been laying the groundwork for misinformation to falsely imply that the election, if he loses, was against him.
Early returns show that of those who have already cast their votes, most have been Democrats who are likely to oppose the withdrawal. More Republicans are expected to vote in person on election day.
No major Democratic candidate is running against Newsom, which has encouraged supporters to leave the questions of his replacement blank. If even a hair more than 50% of voters choose to oust the governor, Elder or any other pluralist challenger could take office and relinquish politics in an overwhelmingly democratic state.
This result would provoke national reverberations by putting a potentially antagonistic Republican leader at the head of the nation’s most populous and economically productive state, and potentially doomed Democrats before the midterm elections. The implication that a Republican could oust a bright blue Democrat in California would fuel criticism that the party is out of touch with voters. A nuisance to the golden state “could also favor the withdrawal of potentially nationwide elections,” said Mindy Romero, who leads the California civic engagement project at the University of Southern California.
After initially dismissing the withdrawal as a Republican-led distraction, the Democrats and Newsom campaign has pivoted in recent weeks to qualify it as a referendum on Trumpism in California, which has “life or death” consequences. Meanwhile, major Democrats in California and Washington DC, including Senators Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders and Amy Klobuchar, Progressive Representatives Barbara Lee and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, and Vice President Kamala Harris, have helped Newsom.
Elder pledged to end mask and vaccine requirements, appealing to remind sponsors whose efforts gained momentum last winter amid the worst increase in the state’s pandemic, which forced companies to close. and to keep public schools closed. Among those supporting the withdrawal, 38% of likely voters said they preferred Elder, in a poll by the UC Berkeley Institute for Government Studies published Friday. Former San Diego Mayor Kevin Faulconer, a moderate Republican who the Los Angeles Times approved as the “least bad option” to replace Newsom, was, on the other hand, backed by only 8 percent of likely voters. More than 40 candidates are running against Newsom, including reality TV star and former Olympian Caitlyn Jenner and YouTube personality Kevin Paffrath.
In campaign rallies, Newsom has stressed that its first closure measures and the country’s first state mask mandate for schools have saved lives. But the governor continues to work to get several wrong steps: under Newsom’s surveillance, the state’s unemployment department struggled with significant accumulations, while paying an estimated $ 31 billion in fraudulent claims. The state’s vaccine launch was initially chaotic and slow, leaving behind some of the most vulnerable front-line workers.
A dinner laden with pressure groups and bad weather at the Michelin-starred French laundry restaurant and the governor’s decision to return his own children to private school before many public schools had reopened added fuel to residents ’frustrations. Meanwhile, after the worst year of wildfires in California in 2020 and as catastrophic fires continue to erupt across the state, Newsom has tried to stifle concern by greatly exaggerating fire prevention efforts. forestry.
Voters who remained lukewarm in Newsom said they still saw him as the best of the bad election. “I’m with a lot of people who might want to remember Gavin, but she’s not necessarily in favor of having Larry Elder there,” said John Friedrich, a retiree living in Stockton, California, about an hour south of the capital. , Sacramento.
“There’s all sorts of things going on this past year, just devastating things,” he added. “Any governor would have a hard job.”