Governor Gavin Newsom on the road to victory

Gavin Newsom is the second California governor to face a withdrawal election and is likely to be the first to survive.

All eyes are on Golden State, as the Sept. 14 election is just one day away, a fast-approaching deadline for registered voters in California to vote by mail or in person.

The Democratic governor has spent months vigorously campaigning against the withdrawal effort, which he has characterized as a radical takeover of Republican Party power that has left both his career and California’s future in balance.

With its $ 70 million war chest, Newsom has covered the airwaves and digital spaces with anti-withdrawal ads featuring prominent Democrats like Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren and former President Barrack Obama. The governor has also made numerous campaign stops across the state to reach out directly to Democratic voters, and is even scheduled to campaign alongside President Joe Biden in Long Beach on Monday afternoon.

Although Newsom was projected to face a narrower run in the election just a month ago, his intense campaign efforts appear to be bearing fruit. Experts, recent polls and early turnout rates indicate that Newsom is now underway to easily defeat the withdrawal effort.

“It will have to mean a big lack of voting for the recovery effort to be successful right now,” Democratic consultant Michael Soneff said. “Newsom’s chances are very good. I’d rather be Gavin Newsom than anyone in this race.”

While Republican voters have been outnumbered by nearly 2-1 by state Democrats, complacency among Newsom Democratic supporters posed a potential threat to their chances of surviving the withdrawal.

However, a poll released Friday by the Berkeley Institute for Government Studies and the Los Angeles Times indicates that Democratic voters are more committed to the upcoming withdrawal election. Sixty percent of likely voters in California said they would vote to keep Newsom in office, while only 39% would vote to remember him.

This is the first survey that has shown that Newsom has defeated the withdrawal by more than 20 percentage points, a jump from the previous survey conducted by the same institutions just six weeks ago. The July poll showed a much narrower run, with 50% of voters likely in favor of retaining Newsom and 47% in favor of withdrawing.

A September poll by the California Institute of Public Policy showed that 58% of likely voters were in favor of Newsom, while 39% wanted to eliminate it. SurveyUSA and The San Diego Union Tribune found that 54% of likely voters were in favor of keeping Newsom, a big boost from their August poll in which 51% favored elimination.

“It seems that the gap of enthusiasm between Republicans and Democrats that has given so much life to the withdrawal at first seems to have dissipated,” said Dan Schnur, a professor of politics at three California universities who previously chaired the Political Practice Commission. California Fair.

“Newsom spent most of the summer trying to convince the Democratic base of this [the recall] worth your time and attention. And from the polls it is clear that he has been successful in these efforts, “Schnur added.

This increase in engagement among Democrats is also reflected in the rates of early returns of email votes.

The poll conducted by the Berkeley Institute for Government Studies and The Los Angeles Times estimates that postal voting will account for about half of the electorate.

On Saturday, registered Democratic voters accounted for about 52 percent of the nearly 7,800,000 ballots voted so far, according to daily Political Data Intelligence data. Republicans lag far behind, accounting for only 25%.

Republicans were expected to return to the polls more quickly than Democrats because of their high interest in previous months ’withdrawal elections, according to Soneff. Now, they let themselves struggle to catch up.

“Democrats have significantly outnumbered Republicans by returning votes to this point and have opened up a colossal advantage. Republicans are trying to close the gap and are definitely making some progress, but in the end they won’t,” Soneff continued.

While no more than 14,470,000 tickets have yet been returned, Soneff said the most recent return rates are “definitely a great start for Newsom.”

Soneff noted that the rate of return of the lowest Republican ballot so far is not entirely a surprise in the wake of the 2020 presidential election.

Former President Donald Trump notoriously criticized the email vote last year, falsely claiming that it is full of election fraud and that it is a disadvantage for Republicans.

Trump has convinced much of his Republican base that email voting is “corrupt,” which could explain the depressing Republican vote in the by-election so far, Soneff alleged.

“Voting by mail has been taking place in the United States since the late 1700s and has always been an integral part of the election, but Donald Trump’s view that voting by mail is intrinsically bad has had a lasting effect on the Republican Party, “Soneff said.

On election day, Republicans are expected to outnumber Democrats in face-to-face voting, according to Soneff.

This is also reflected in the survey conducted by the Berkeley Institute for Government Studies and The Los Angeles Times. Of the likely voters who said they would vote in person on election day, 77% said they would vote to get the governor back.

However, given the considerable Democratic leadership in postal voting so far, this is not expected to have a significant impact on the election result, according to Soneff.

The allegations that Newsom mistreated the state’s response to the coronavirus pandemic are the ones that fueled the Republican-led withdrawal effort in 2020.

However, in the weeks leading up to the withdrawal elections, the Newsom campaign has seized on pandemics to help achieve its likely victory.

“The big irony of this election is that what sparked the recovery effort nine months ago is helping Newsom defend it,” GOP consultant Rob Stutzman said.

According to a September poll conducted by the California Institute of Public Policy (PPIC), Californians named the coronavirus as the main problem facing the state. Many of Newsom’s anti-withdrawal announcements and campaign stalls in recent weeks have focused on this, warning voters about what can happen to the state’s coronavirus conditions if a Republican opponent takes his place in office. .

“Republicans are trying to remember [Newsom] from the office and overturn common-sense Covid safety measures for health workers and school staff, “former President Barack Obama said in the new anti-retirement announcement.

Each voter’s vote “could be the difference between protecting our children and putting them at risk, helping Californians recover, or taking us back,” Obama added.

Another anti-withdrawal announcement knocked out Conservative talk show host Larry Elder, the Republican leader in the election.

“The top Republican candidate, he pedaled deadly conspiracy theories and would eliminate vaccination warrants on the first day,” one narrator said in the ad.

Elder vowed to cancel all vaccination and masking warrants at a rally in Fresno in late August. “When I’m governor, assuming there are still warrants for vaccines and warrants for face masks, they will be repealed before I take my first cup of tea,” he told the rally, prompting the crowd to roar. with applause.

Elder, who has been a widely known figure in California for decades, has a significant advantage over the other 45 candidates running to replace Newsom. Thirty-eight percent of likely voters said they would support their candidacy if Newsom were replaced, which would increase by 18 percent by the end of July, according to a survey by the Berkeley Institute for Government Studies and Los Angeles Times.

Elder has openly rejected coronavirus health measures, even claiming in an August 31 interview with CNN that science does not suggest that young people should receive vaccines and wear masks to schools.

Part of Newsom’s new strategy aims to capitalize on Elder’s opposition to coronavirus health measures, which has encouraged Democrats to take action and vote in the withdrawal, Schnur said.

“One of the ways a campaign to motivate voters is to tell them very scary and alarming things about the opposition,” Schnur said. “And Larry Elder is perfect for that. If it didn’t exist, Gavin Newsom would probably have wanted to invent it.”

In addition to warning voters about his Republican challenges, the governor has spent the final weeks of his campaign promoting his own efforts to fight coronavirus in recent months.

“California is among the lowest [Covid] case rates in America and among the highest vaccination rates in America, because we believe in science and we believe in public health. We are not ideological, we are open to discussion and we are interested in evidence, “the governor said at a rally in San Leandro alongside Vice President Kamala Harris on Wednesday.

PPIC President Mark Baldassare suggests that Newsom’s response to the coronavirus may be another of his strengths in the withdrawal elections that could boost democratic participation.

About six out of ten Californians and potential voters approve of how Newsom has treated the coronavirus pandemic, according to the September PPIC poll. And more than three in four Californians believe the state government is doing an “excellent or good job” in distributing Covid-19 vaccines.

“The message around Covid and the importance of keeping the governor to keep these efforts going around Covid, which is considered No. 1 in California, is something that is motivating Democratic voters in recent days,” he said. dir Baldassare.