Health experts and cases of surges in India Covid are concerned about the possible new variant

Photographer: T. Narayan / Bloomberg

As India’s daily count of Covid-19 infections increased to registering more than 200,000 cases in two consecutive days, public health experts worry that a new, possibly more virulent, variant of coronavirus could run across the nation full of more than 1.3 billion people.

It is believed that the new variant, which has the so-called double mutation, feeds the new deadliest wave of infections in India that has made it the second most affected country in the world, surpassing Brazil, and which already it has begun to overflow. hospitals i crematoria. The Asian nation has so far reported more than 14 million Covid cases and more than 174,300 fatalities.

“This is a variant of interest that we are pursuing,” Maria Van Kerkhove said Friday told reporters the technical head of the World Health Organization in Covid. “Having two of these mutations, which have been seen in other variants around the world, is worrisome,” he said, adding that there was a similarity with mutations that increase transmission and reduce neutralization, possibly preventing the ability of vaccines to curb them.

The new strain underscores the insidious nature of the viruses and threatens to thwart containment efforts in India, despite strict measures such as the the largest closure in the world last year. An explosive outbreak in India runs the risk of undoing a hard-won victory over the pathogen for others as well, mostly because that strain has now jumped to at least ten more countries.

Here’s what we know so far:

How did the “double mutation” variant come about?

The new variant, called B.1.617, was initially detected in India with two mutations: E484Q and L452R. A scientist in India first reported this late last year and more details were presented to the WHO on Monday, according to Van Kerkhove.

Viruses mutate all the time, as part of evolutionary biology. Some mutations weaken the virus, while others can make it stronger, allowing it to proliferate faster or cause more infections.

Why mutates Coronavirus The variants are so worrying: QuickTake

The Indian Ministry of Health recognized for the first time the presence of this “double mutant ”at the end of March, but has remained so since then. Although it is a variant of interest, “it has not been sealed asvariant of concern “to say it is more lethal or more infectious,” Aparna Mukherjee, a scientist with the Indian Council of Medical Research, who works under the country’s health ministry, told Bloomberg TV on Friday.

Is it causing a historic increase in infections in India?

Genome sequencing indicates the variant as a possible culprit. The average prevalence of the variant increased to 52% of the sequenced samples in April from almost nothing in January, according to the tracker website outbreak.info, which uses data from the global GISAID repository.

In some districts of the state of Maharashtra, where the nation’s financial center, Mumbai is located and the epicenter of the current wave that is currently under similar rules to the blockade, the prevalence of this variant was over 60%. , seconds Anurag Agrawal, director of the state genomics institute of the Scientific and Industrial Research Council that performs the sequencing. B.1.617 was present in samples from about ten Indian states and, although the percentage may vary, it was expected to increase as “it has two critical mutations that make it more likely to transmit and escape previous immunity” , said Agrawal.

“We’ve done the math: we think a lot of the increase in the number of reproduction can be explained by these mutations,” said Nithya Balasubramanian, head of health care an investigation in Bernstein India told Bloomberg TV this week. “So, yes, mutations are a big cause for concern.”

After slowly mapping the genomes of the virus in recent months, India made sequences less than 1% of positive samples last month: the country is now stirring to cover the lost ground. “We are trying to do at least 5% of the samples there,” Mukherjee of the ICMR said.

“It appears to be spreading faster than pre-existing variants,” said Rakesh Mishra, director of the Center for Cellular and Molecular Biology based in Hyderabad, another Indian laboratory that does Covid sample genome sequencing. “Sooner or later, it will be predominant throughout the country, given its form of dissemination.”

Has it been found outside of India?

This variant has been detected in at least ten other countries, including the United States, the United Kingdom, Australia and New Zealand, according to the status report at outbreak.info.

As of April 16, 408 sequences of the B.1.617 lineage have been detected, of which 265 were found in India, according to the report. A The UK government surveillance report said 77 cases have been found so far in England and Scotland, designating it as a “Variant Under Investigation”.

New Zealand yes he temporarily suspended the arrivals of his citizens and residents of India due to the rising number he returned with Covid. Brazil was too dodged like a Covid supercar by his neighbors who were nervous about the virus strain next door.

India’s second wave, given its size and rapid pace, will worry other countries that have almost managed their own outbreaks after weeks of devastating economic blockades.

Is it more deadly than other variants?

Researchers are still trying to figure it out. The characteristics of the double mutant variant are being investigated, but the L452R mutation is well characterized in American studies, according to Agrawal. It increased viral transmission by about 20% and reduces the effectiveness of antibodies by more than 50%, he said.

Globally, three worrying variants that have appeared so far in the UK, South Africa and Brazil have caused special concern. Studies suggest that they are more contagious and some evidence indicates that one is more deadly while another causes reinfections.

The double mutant strain, first found in India, has begun to worry virologists everywhere.