SALT LAKE CITY – Public health experts say they remain cautiously optimistic about the prospects for the COVID-19 pandemic as the number of new cases decreases and the number of vaccinated Utahns increases dramatically.
Friday was the first time there were fewer than 15,000 active cases of COVID-19 in Utah since Sept. 24, 2020, according to data from the Utah Department of Health. It is a figure that reached over 63,000 at one point in late November.
On February 26 for the first time since September 7, 2020, the seven-day average “person-on-person” positivity rate in the state fell below 10%. Utah’s seven-day average on Friday was 543 new cases a day, which is the lowest it has been since Sept. 14, 2020. All of these data show that Utah is where it was before the rise of the drop would lead to the highest COVID-19 rates the state has received so far.
Meanwhile, vaccinations are on the rise. The health department now reports that 529,871 Utahns have received at least one dose of the COVID-19 vaccine, meaning that the number of Utahns vaccinated since December 15, 2020 is now nearly 1.5 times the number of people hired COVID-19 for a year on Saturday.
But while some states have used the vaccine, their own case is declining or the national decline as a reason to ease restrictions, a Utah health expert said Friday that it is still too early to do so.
Dr. Brandon Webb, an infectious disease physician at Intermountain Healthcare, estimates that Utah has approximately 30% immunity when considering vaccines administered or recent cases. A figure he said is “fantastic,” he says, but the estimate is still less than 70% or more that experts believe needs to be achieved to get the herd’s immunity.
“Right now, we’re not there yet,” Webb said during a question-and-answer session with members of the media on Friday. “We are not at a time when we can rely only on this immunity of 30% of the herd, so it is important that we continue to follow the social restrictions and precautions set by the Department of Health.”
That’s why Webb warned of loosening restrictions early or celebrating them too soon, mostly because some states, like Texas, have announced such plans this week.
Gov. Spencer Cox said Thursday that Utah would continue to move forward with its plan to reopen at different steps, even amid pressure from politicians inside and outside Utah to reopen “100%” increases.
There is hope on the horizon: we can see the goal, but right now the last thing we can afford is to wrap the ball before we cross the finish line.
–Dr. Brandon Webb, infectious disease physician for Intermountain Healthcare
For months, former Gov. Gary Herbert used a sports cliché in his press meetings about the coronavirus. With all the positive steps Utah took last year, he noted that leaders and health experts were not prepared to “increase football”. Simply put, it was too early to celebrate because there was still work to be done to get out of the pandemic.
With the reduction in the number of COVID-19 cases and vaccines available, Webb offered a similar sports analogy on Friday.
“We have to do it until the end. There is hope on the horizon: we can see the goal, but right now, the last thing we can afford is to wrap the ball before crossing the finish line.” , he said. dit. “If we think about it in terms of finishing strong and getting people to make personal decisions based on their individual risk level, we can reach that goal as long as our vaccine distribution continues to accelerate.”
Part of the reason experts remain captivately optimistic is that new declines in the reported case count have begun to flatten, indicating a possible plateau in new cases rather than disappearing altogether.
At the same time, Webb noted that vaccination efforts around the world are in a “race against” the various variants of coronavirus discovered that could frustrate the entire vaccination process.
So how should Utah go to reopen?
The “wisest course of action”
Utah leaders on Thursday moved Salt Lake and Davis counties to the “moderate” transmission rate level of the state’s transmission index. They joined Box Elder, Cache, Duchesne, Grand, Juab, Morgan, San Juan, Sanpete, Wasatch, Washington and Weber counties in this category.
Only five counties – Daggett, Millard, Piute, Rich and Wayne – have the “low” transmission rate. The remaining 11 counties remain in the “high” transmission category. These are Beaver, Carbon, Emery, Garfield, Iron, Kane, Savier, Summit, Tooele, Uintah and Utah counties.
Webb called the state-level approach to reopening COVID-19 “the wisest course of action.”
“As there are fewer and fewer people in the community who are susceptible, we can reduce the restrictions,” he said. “All of these incremental steps to loosen restrictions must be related to how many individuals in our community have immunity.”
That’s why he encourages people to wear masks, practice social distancing when needed, and avoid “poorly ventilated areas”. All of them can help slow the spread of the virus.
While some communities have lowered restrictions, Webb encouraged people to follow with caution and follow guidelines to reduce the spread of coronavirus, even if they have been removed. He added that vaccines are extremely useful, but advised that more people needed them.
“Not everyone should see the vaccine as a ticket to full freedom, although we still have a fairly high community transmission,” he said. “Not everyone has been vaccinated.”
Add a new vaccine to the mixture
Utahns began receiving the unique Johnson & Johnson vaccine this week. Webb said he read the entire 80-page report on the vaccine collected from the clinical trials and believed the vaccine is “very favorable.”
“The safety data are excellent,” he added, noting that serious vaccine adverse events were “very rare.”
Utah State Department of Health state epidemiologist Angela Dunn said Thursday that one of the most frequently asked questions the health department has received is which of the three vaccine options they should receive. She advised that getting any of the vaccines is the best approach to the process.
“The best vaccine for you is the one you can get first, regardless of the manufacturer,” he said.
Intermountain officials noted that this is the case for everyone except 16- or 17-year-olds, as the Pfizer vaccine is the only one that has been approved for people who were previously young.
Most vaccines administered so far are through Moderna or Pfizer-BioNTech, which require two doses. Although both are considered to be about 95% effective after the second dose, it is possible that someone may test positive for COVID-19 after receiving the main dose of either vaccine.
In this case, Webb said the symptoms are usually milder. He added that it is now recommended that anyone taking COVID-19 after receiving the first dose of either vaccine continue to take the second dose after their case has been resolved and they have waited beyond the isolation period. of 10 days.
“It’s safe and appropriate to go ahead and take that second dose,” he said.
The 6-month outlook in Utah
It’s been nearly six months since the fall climb began in Utah. Now that Utah is close to where it was late last summer, what will the next six months be like?
Available vaccines are the biggest difference between September 2020 and March 2021. It’s what Webb called “the most important tool right now”.
Current trends, he said, are also “favorable” so restrictions, such as mask mandates, can be lifted over the next six months. For that to happen, however, Utahns will still have to follow guidelines designed to curb the spread of the coronavirus.
“We need to follow the course and get to the finish line following social restrictions and other layers of protection until the number of cases and the number of vaccinated individuals are at a point where we can pass the baton safely. from these things we are all tired to immunity, ”he said. “We are on the right track, right now, with the current distribution of vaccines so that we can gradually loosen restrictions during the spring and summer.”