Viruses mutate; he does it all too, really. But now experts are worried about some of the thousands of coronavirus variants that have appeared around the world. Last month we wrote about the UK variant; now there are more, including one in Los Angeles. You don’t have to be scared. But it’s good to be informed.
One of the big reasons we now see new variants, a year after the pandemic, is that there are only so many more viruses than 12 months ago. The more viruses there are in the world, the more likely they are to mutate. And the more variants there are, the more likely there is that some of them will be bad news.
If we (as a global community) had done a better job of containing the virus in the first place, we might not have gotten to the point where there are multiple variants different enough to worry the experts. But here we are.
Another thing to remember is that you will only find variants if you search for them. The UK variant, B.1.1.7, was discovered in part because the UK does many things called surveillance tests – monitoring exactly what types of coronavirus are there. The United States does too, but much less so. Variant B.1.1.7 was probably already in other countries at the time it was discovered in the UK; they just hadn’t found it yet.
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What are the variants to know?
B.1.1.7 was found in November 2020 in the UK, where it has probably been circulating since September or earlier. This New York Times article has more details about the strain and its mutations. It appears to be 50% more transmissible than a typical COVID virus. It has multiple mutations, including eight in the ear protein.
(Spike protein is the part of the virus that interacts with our cells. When we make antibodies against spike protein, these antibodies can prevent the virus from infecting us. MRNA vaccines include the genetic code for spike protein, which it allows our cells to make protein and then make antibodies out of it.)
B.1.1.7 is more communicable, but the disease it causes does not appear to be worse than usual.
B.1.351 was discovered in South Africa, in samples dating back to October 2020, and also presents mutations in ear protein. It appears to be more transmissible than typical COVID, but does not alter the severity of the disease. Both this variant and the one in the United Kingdom share a mutation called N501Y. A recent study published as a prepress, found that the Pfizer vaccine does they appear to be protected from variants with this mutation.
P.1 is a variant of Brazil, first detected in December 2020. It also has mutations that seem worrisome, including the ear protein. One of its mutations, E484K, may be able to evade antibodies; there are reason to suspect that people who have recovered from a previous case of COVID they can be infected by these mutations.
CAL.20C is a variant that is becoming popular in Los Angeles. We still don’t know much about it.
For all these variants, science is still very new. The things we know about it are tentative. None of them seem to cause more serious illnesses; most are likely to be susceptible to existing vaccines; and PCR tests still appear to be able to detect them.
They have often also become the dominant strains in their locations, but for some of the variants, there is a bit of a problem with eggs and chickens when determining whether they are responsible for peaks in cases or not.
What happens now?
Two things. First, scientists are working to answer unanswered questions about these variants.
For example, we need to find out if they are really more transmissible and, if so, to what extent. We need to know if the variants can bypass our natural immunity (which would mean you could catch the virus twice) and if they can bypass the immunity of the various vaccines and vaccines that already exist. We need to know if any of the variants cause more serious illnesses or if there are clinical differences. And we need to expand our surveillance, to all countries, to be able to find new variants as they emerge and see where the existing variants take over.
Over time, if it turns out that new variants can bypass existing vaccines, they may need to be updated. We do this for the flu vaccine every year; we may need to do the same for the COVID vaccine.
But the other element of action is simpler, though difficult: we must do the same things we have been doing for prevention, only to a greater degree. If a variant is more transmissible, it is even more important to wear masks and stay home and take the tests seriously. It’s extra, extra important to get vaccines to people as quickly as possible. Therefore, in this sense, even if the virus changes, our most important measures to control it have not changed.