What are the implications of Lebron James ’ankle sprain for defending the Los Angeles Lakers title and his hopes of winning a fifth MVP?
After trying to overcome the injury he suffered in the second quarter of Saturday’s loss to the Atlanta Hawks, LeBron withdrew from the game and was then diagnosed with an ankle sprain in his upper back after an MRI. While there is no specific schedule for James ’return, an ankle sprain is often a multi-week injury.
Can the Lakers, who are already playing without teammate All-Star Anthony Davis due to a calf strain and Achilles tendinosis in his right leg, strengthen their roster before Thursday’s change deadline? And how will LeBron’s absence affect the MVP’s career? Let’s answer the key questions after James ’injury.
How much time could LeBron lose?
Without further details on the severity of James ’ankle sprain, it’s hard to pinpoint exactly how long he could be out. When Jeff Stotts of InStreetClothes.com wrote about the history of injury during the 2018 NBA Finals, he noticed that the typical high ankle sprain caused players to miss 10 games. However, the player on whom he was writing, Golden State Warriors All-Star Klay Thompson, did not miss a single game, playing after two days off between suffering the injury in Game 1 and Game 3 later.
LeBron’s initial attempt to stay on the court after injury (he even made a triple in the next possession) recalled his solid track record of playing with more common ankle sprains, involving a different group of ligaments. As Stotts noted on Twitter on Saturday, his database showed that James missed just three games in total with eight previous ankle sprains.
In this case, there are reasons why the Lakers are more cautious with LeBron’s health, certainly compared to Thompson’s desire to return quickly during the NBA Finals. Where the Lakers finish in the Western Conference standings is less important than having their stars healthy for the postseason.
How far could the Lakers fall in the standings?
Saturday’s loss, which broke a four-game winning streak for the Lakers since the All-Star playoff, put them in a tie with the Phoenix Suns for second place in the West, 2.5 games behind NBA leader Utah Jazz. (Phoenix is technically ahead by virtue of having a better win percentage with one win less and one loss less).
Lurking two games back are the LA Clippers, who have lost five of their last seven games. And the Lakers are just 2.5 games above the Denver Nuggets and Portland Trail Blazers, currently tied for fifth place in the West. So if James misses the next two weeks while Davis stays out of the lineup, he is not expected to be re-evaluated until late next week and would need to improve his conditioning before returning to action in the game, it is very possible that the Lakers will be alone. out of the top four of the conference at this time.
The remaining Lakers competed hard defensively on Saturday, making a run in the final quarter after being outscored 22-12 in the third period, but could not find enough offense to recover from an initial four-game deficit. points when Lebron left the court. While the Lakers prepared for that scenario to some extent by adding Montrezl Harrell and Dennis Schroder last low season to make them a little less dependent on Davis and James to score, there’s a lot they can do to replace two of the best players in the league.
Over the next two weeks, the Lakers ’schedule alternates between games that can be won with few players and tough clashes. They will travel to face the Suns in Phoenix and face two of the best teams in the East (the Philadelphia 76ers and the Milwaukee Bucks) during a subsequent four-game home stay. Splash of more favorable clashes in New Orleans and at home against the Cleveland Cavaliers and Orlando Magic, who are heading for the lottery.
The Lakers would certainly love to have at least one of their stars back for an “away” game at the Staples Center against the Clippers on April 4, two weeks after Sunday, which could be significant. in terms of Western playoff rankings. Still, I don’t think the disastrous scenarios like the Lakers falling into the top six are realistic unless the stars lose much more time than expected. Prior to LeBron’s injury, FiveThirtyEight’s projections gave the Lakers a six-game mattress over the Blazers and Dallas Mavericks, tied for sixth-best Western projection with an average of 40 wins.
Possible help with the deadline?
The Lakers ’efforts to add to their list through an exchange are complicated by being subject to a strict limit on the luxury tax platform because they used their mid-level exception that is not contributing to signing to Harrell as a free agent. The Lakers can add up to $ 1.9 million in salary at most in an exchange and have to weigh in on the possibility of using that money to hire free agents in the procurement market.
It is possible that the Lakers will recover a higher salary by including their current players in an exchange. For example, a package from Wesley Matthews ($ 3.6 million) and Alfonzo McKinnie ($ 1.8 million) would allow the Lakers to bring back a player who earns about $ 6 million after considering the need to hire two players to complete the list. (The Lakers currently have two places open on the roster after the expiration of the second 10-day contract for Damian Jones, who has been a starter for them at center).
The other complication for the Lakers is that they don’t have much to offer in an exchange. The only first-round pick the Lakers can negotiate is in 2027 and their closest second-round pick is in 2023. Realistically, the Lakers probably don’t have the ability to add the type of player that would really help them. to manage absence. of Davis and James. The Lakers ’seasonal additions are more likely to come through acquisitions.
MVP race affected by injuries
In the All-Star recess, LeBron and Joel Embiid were the two favorites to win the award for the NBA’s most valuable player, one James has made no secret of wanting to claim for the first time since 2012-13. Now both players are sidelined with injuries as Embiid struggles with a bony bruise on his left knee.
The impact of injuries is a key reason why it’s dangerous to start drawing MVP conclusions too early in the season. Staying on track is a key part of value within an individual regular season. Historically, 10 games lost has been the limit for MVP consideration. The last player to lose more than 10 games in a more valuable player season was Allen Iverson 2000-01 (11). Before that, you have to go back to Bill Walton in 1977-1978 (an unprecedented 34) for the example above. (No MVP between Walton and Iverson missed more than seven games).
At the same time, the importance of games played as a Most Valuable Player criterion could fade a bit as teams place more emphasis on letting their stars rest for the playoffs. During the first 10 years of the 2000s, the average MVP played 96% of his team’s games. In the last five seasons, that dropped to 92%, and each of the last three (James Harden in 2017-18 and Giannis Antetokounmpo the last two seasons) missed the equivalent of 10 games.
Either way, there is little doubt that James and Embiid suffering injuries help the MVP candidacy of Nikola Jokic, the other main contender based on advanced statistics. And it continues to open the door to the last two winners, Antetokounmpo and Harden, opportunities ruled out at the start of the season. More importantly, injuries are a reminder that we shouldn’t be in a hurry to pick a more valuable player before the season is almost over.