A new variant of coronavirus was discovered in the UK and scientists think it may be more infectious than the other more common virus lineages around the world. How big is this deal? The short answer: We still don’t know it at all.
What we know
On December 8, Scientific reports, scientists and public health experts saw a map showing that an area of the south-east of England was experiencing an increase in cases. Genetic analysis of the virus that spread there showed that it was unexpectedly different from others that are circulating elsewhere.
There is concern that the increase in some cases may be due to this variant being more transmissible than others. This is still not entirely clear. But now there are several European countries blocked trips in an attempt to keep out the new variant.
Are mutations bad?
Not necessarily. Viruses mutate all the time and coronavirus is no exception. Scientists are able to track the spread of the virus in part by sequencing its genome. If two people have COVID and their viruses are almost identical, they will probably get it from the same place. If each of them has a different variant of the virus, they have probably obtained it from different sources. You can see a giant family tree of all the coronavirus mutations in the world here.
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So in that sense, mutations are happening all the time, but so far this hasn’t changed anything about what coronavirus is or how we should respond to it.
Is this mutation worse than the others?
It’s too early to tell. The new variant, called B.1.1.7, is now being studied to determine if it is different from other coronaviruses in any major way. Perhaps it is more transmissible than others. We don’t have any evidence yet, so we’ll have to wait and see.
Can you avoid the vaccine?
Again, we still don’t know. B.1.1.7 has 17 sites where its genome is different from its close relatives. About half of these are from the protein peak, which is worrisome.
He MRNA vaccines which they just deploy cause our bodies to produce the ear protein, and then our immune system responds to that protein and prepares to recognize future invaders carrying the same protein.
In theory, changes in ear protein could allow the vaccine to be bypassed. But that depends on the particularities of the exact difference of the new spike protein and whether our immune system can still recognize it. We simply do not yet have an answer to this question.
If it really is more transmissible, how can we stop it?
The new variant has been circulating in England since at least 20 September, so border closure is now unlikely to prevent it from being fully extended. Most likely, the variant has already reached other countries. But these restrictions can at least reduce the number of people with the new variant accessing these countries.
Otherwise, we should continue our efforts — chaving a highly transmissible coronavirus is exactly what we’ve been trying to do all along, right? Masks and distancing and ventilation would do it still matters, if this new variant comes into play; they would only care more.
Trevor Bedford, a scientist studying the virus mutation, noted on Twitter that the UK mutation “deserves a lot of attention”, but that it is unlikely to interfere too much with vaccine deployment. Most circulating viruses do not have significant mutations in their tip proteins. If one of the variants becomes more common and it turns out that the vaccine can be bypassed, we will need to update the vaccine accordingly.
Remember, there is no conclusive evidence that they respond less to the vaccine or cause more serious illnesses. too looks like to be more transmissible, but this question has not yet been studied very well. Experts who are discussing the UK variant seem to be watching it closely, but don’t think it’s time to panic.