Sources say Pakistan-based terrorist facilities such as Jaish-e-Muhammad and Lashkar-e-Taiba, clearly driven by the Taliban’s “victory” in Afghanistan, have spearheaded infiltration efforts to push their cadres in the valley.
The security threat comes amid al-Qaeda calling on the global Muslim community to “liberate” other Muslim lands. The group, responsible for the 9/11 attacks in the United States, has effectively put Kashmir on the list of the next targets of global jihad.
All this is a bad sign for India which has struggled to keep the valley free of terror after the repeal of Article 370. There are valid fears that terrorist groups based in Pakistan, encouraged by the Taliban rule in Afghanistan, intensify efforts to ignite violence in J&K.
Bloody past
A quick look at history shows how militancy in Kashmir grew as the Taliban came to power in Afghanistan.
A large number of Mujahideen fighters infiltrated the Valley in the late 1980s after the end of the Soviet-Afghan war. The influx of these foreign fighters had a direct impact on the security situation in Kashmir, with incidents of terror increasing in the early 1990s.
The insurgency sparked a wave of political assassinations and paralyzed the government machinery, forcing India to send armed forces to control the situation.
Terrorist activities increased further after the Taliban captured Kabul for the first time in 1996 and reached its peak in 2001, the year that marked the largest terrorist attack in U.S. history.
India suffered firsthand from the Taliban government when Pakistani terrorists hijacked an Indian Airlines flight and took it to Kandahar, Afghanistan.
Taliban fighters helped the terrorists by preventing Indian military intervention and encircling the airport. The kidnapping led to the release of three feared Pakistani terrorists, including JeM founder and brain 26/11 Masood Azhar.
According to data collected by the South Asian Terrorism Portal (SATP), the number of casualties in Kashmir fell by almost 75% in the five years following the US invasion and increased control of terrorist groups.
Similarly, the data show that after the fall of the Soviet in 1989 and the uprising in Kashmir, the death toll rose sharply, from 92 in 1989 to 1,177 in 1990.
9/11, ceasefire agreement and fragile peace
Following the US invasion of Afghanistan in 2001 and the repression of terrorist groups, incidents of violence in Kashmir experienced a sharp decline.
The situation improved even further after the 2003 ceasefire pact between India and Pakistan, when both sides agreed to prevent violence along the LoC. This restored a fragile peace in the valley, although some incidents of violence and infiltration continued.
But with the Taliban back in the saddle, experts say Pakistan may try again to exploit the situation there to provoke violence in Kashmir, as it did in the 1990s.
An article on the Observer Research Foundation (ORF) said that Pakistan, which is struggling to get off the gray list of the Financial Action Task Force (FATF), could try to use the situation in Afghanistan to spread terror in Jammu and Kashmir to avoid scrutiny.
Reports claim that thousands of LeT and JeM terrorists are currently fighting alongside the Taliban and will be prepared and willing to infiltrate the Kashmir Valley.
The assessment of the security agencies is that while there is no immediate threat to J&K, Jaish and LeT are returning to their former ways.
Recently, TOI had reported that terror launchers near the border are back in action and that infiltration has recently increased.
In addition, according to a recent UN monitoring report, a significant portion of al-Qaeda’s leadership resides in the border region of Afghanistan and Pakistan, alongside al-Qaeda in the Indian subcontinent.
A large number of al-Qaeda fighters and other foreign extremist elements aligned with the Taliban are found in various parts of Afghanistan.
But things are a little different this time.
India has significantly increased its security presence in Kashmir since the late 1990s and has managed to reduce the number of casualties alongside it. With decades of counterinsurgency experience, he is more prepared to fight terror in the valley than in the early 1990s.
In addition, in an attempt to rectify their international image, the Taliban have vowed to keep terrorist groups at bay, although much of the world distrusts that promise.
While it is too early to know how the shift of power in Kabul will affect terrorist activities in the region, India will be closely monitoring the situation in Afghanistan.