Hurricane Ida: Hurricane clock in effect in New Orleans as Ida heads to the Gulf Coast

A hurricane watch is in place in New Orleans and a long stretch of the Louisiana coast as Ida heads for the Gulf of Mexico. The system is now a hurricane, which is expected to hit the northern shore of the gulf on Sunday, according to forecasts.

The storm hit Cuba on Friday with sustained maximum winds of 75 mph. The system is likely to experience rapid intensification as it moves through the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico and is expected to reach Category 3 on Sunday before it reaches the United States.

The forecast cone indicates possible landings between Port Arthur, Texas, and Biloxi, Mississippi, with an emphasis on the Louisiana coast. This could still change, but the models generally agree in this way.

“Unfortunately, the entire Louisiana coast is currently in the cone planned for Tropical Storm Ida, which is strengthening and could reach land in Louisiana as a major hurricane, as gulf conditions are conducive to a rapid intensification, “Louisiana Gov. John Bel Edwards said.

“On Saturday evening, everyone should be at the place where they intend to get out of the storm,” he said.

Meteorologists always recommend that residents be prepared for a category above the expected intensity. In this case, there are very good reasons for this. In addition to the fact that forecasting intensity is very difficult and is often maintained with large margins, this system operates with an extremely conducive environment for intensification. The only thing that works there is time: it moves fast enough that it only takes about 48 hours to strengthen before it touches the ground.

Although the system has just been developed, a glance at a satellite view shows that the bands are clearly visible, indicating a system of “rapid organization and strengthening.”

And Ida is already ahead. National Hurricane Center meteorologists expected the system to turn into a storm called Friday later in the weekend. Instead, Ida quickly gained a circulation, a wide organization, and wind speeds strong enough to be named earlier than expected.

Currently, Ida is experiencing moderate to higher level wind shear, which alters her circulation. This will subside on Saturday once the storm hits the Gulf.

The following tweet shows the top level pattern with the storm in the center. It illustrates the storm that develops a kind of cocoon around it (meteorologists call it a wrapper) that protects it from outside influence. The blue colors that develop around the storm in a wide circle mark the edge of the protective wrapper. The storm creates a protective bubble, like an incubator, that helps it intensify.

Far above 99 L, as it forms better over the Gulf, a protective cocoon (top-level ridge / exit) develops that prevents wind shear and allows it to breathe as the wrap expands. With this in mind and the very warm water along the route, watch for rapid intensification. pic.twitter.com/UOpt7rntQO

– Jeff Berardelli (@WeatherProf) August 26, 2021

This point may seem a bit technical, but the rest is simple: the storm will also traverse some areas of very hot water, which acts as a high octane to feed the storms.

In the Caribbean, Ida will move through an extremely high ocean heat content, which is hot water that stretches to great depths. Then, when the system reaches the central Gulf of Mexico, it will move over the famous Loop Current: a curved stream of some of the most energetic waters in the Gulf. Finally, as it approaches the northern shore of the Gulf, it will move over surface waters that are like bathing water (88 to 90 degrees Fahrenheit), some of the warmest surface water available.

With all of this in mind, there is every reason to believe that this will intensify quickly and possibly become a major hurricane before it reaches land. A major hurricane is category 3 or higher.

A storm that strengthens on land produces much more damage than a storm that weakens, assuming a comparison between apples and apples with similar wind speeds, and the storm is likely to intensify as it reaches the coast.

But the devil is in the details. Each model has a slightly different response in terms of tracking, intensity, and time. The following image shows both the European and American models. Both show strong storms, but the European one is slower and further west. The track further east, near New Orleans, is problematic for two reasons: the storm would have a more direct impact on the city and arrive faster, allowing less time to prepare.

As the images above show, gusts are likely to exceed 100 mph near the location of the earth. The approach angle will also cause southeasterly land winds, accumulating water on the coast. This type of storm – approaching from this angle, in this area – often creates an excess of storm. While it is too early to predict exact figures, there is no reason to think that an increase of more than 10 feet is not possible.

Eventually, the system carries a lot of tropical moisture and will probably slow down once it moves to the ground. Along and east of the road, total rain will be more than a foot. Combine this with saturated terrain of much higher than normal rainfall over the past 90 days, and there will be serious flood concerns.

Since there is limited time to prepare, anyone passing by Ida’s path should take immediate precautions. This means making sure your hurricane safety kit is provided and that you have a plan designed for your family. Time will be limited to make last minute preparations, so get started as soon as possible.