I worry about people being re-infected with some of the new coronavirus strains

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We will never end this damn pandemic. Always.

Groundhog today, right? Well, let me quote the viral prediction: “It will be cold, it will be gray and it will last you the rest of your life.”

Because I’m stupid, it never occurred to me that a mutant strain of the virus capable of evading antibodies produced by a first-generation version of a vaccine would also be able to evade antibodies produced by a first-generation version of the vaccine. virus itself. If a few months ago he became infected with a common coronavirus and overcame it, there is no logical reason why he would necessarily be protected from infection by a new strain that has evolved enough that his body’s immune system no longer recognize “. Which is exactly what is happening in South Africa, according to Fauci. People who had COVID 1.0 receive COVID 2.0 thanks to the variant that emerged there. Check it out here for a few minutes.

It’s not just South Africa where people are apparently being re-infected. Manaus, a city in Brazil, was devastated by COVID last year. The reward for enduring a fierce outbreak is the immunity of the herd among the survivors. unless the virus mutates to the point that it effectively becomes a new pathogen again, in which case another fierce outbreak occurs. This is what Manaus seems to be facing now:

Even in a year of horrible suffering, what is developing in Brazil stands out. In the city of Manaus, in the rainforest, where 2 million people live, it is said that the bodies are dropped into mass graves as quickly as they can be excavated. In hospitals they have run out of oxygen and people with potentially treatable cases of COVID-19 die from suffocation. This nature and scale of mortality have not been seen since the first months of the pandemic …

The data seemed to support the idea that herd immunity in Manaus was close. In Science this month, researchers mapped the virus’s catch last year: in April, blood tests found that 4.8% of the city’s population had antibodies to SARS-CoV-2. . In June, the number was up to 52.5 percent. Because people who become infected do not always test positive for antibodies, the researchers estimated that by June about two-thirds of the city had become infected. In November, the estimate was about 76%. This week, in The Lancet, a team of Brazilian researchers noted that even if these estimates were outside a large margin, infection at this scale “should confer significant immunity to the population to prevent an outbreak. bigger”. In fact, it seemed so. The city was able to reopen to a large extent and remain open throughout the winter with low levels of COVID-19 cases.

Either the scientists overestimated the share of the population that had gained immunity from the initial outbreak or the new Brazilian variant is burning through people who had recovered from the common COVID. The best case for us: we may need booster vaccines several times a year as new strains appear here or abroad and begin to spread among the population, including people who have had the disease. before. (Modern is already developing a booster for the South African variant and Pfizer is “laying the groundwork” to do so if the current vaccine ends up fighting this strain.) Worst case scenario: a super contagious strain emerges that begins to tear. -is America at lightning speed while the pharmacy shoots to develop a reinforcement and distribute it, leaving us back in the first position with the immunity of the herd.

We may not need a “permanent” vaccine infrastructure to achieve this, but a short-term mobilization after which everything will return to normal around September, increasingly seems a desired thought.

In fact, the Times reports today that the highly contagious British strain of the virus could be evolving to resist current vaccines. Pfizer and Moderna recently reported that they believe their products are as effective against the current British variant as they are against the common COVID. But what about the “new” British variant?

Scientists suspect that the B.1.351 [South African] the partial escape of the vaccine variant is largely due to a single mutation, called E484K. Experiments indicate that the E484K mutation makes antibodies more difficult to catch the virus and prevent it from entering cells.

It now turns out that some B.1.1.7 coronaviruses in Britain also have the E484K mutation…

[I]A report released online Tuesday by Rajiv Gupta, a Cambridge University virologist, and colleagues reported an experiment they conducted to address exactly that question. They combined the E484K mutation with other key mutations found in variant B.1.1.7, which was initially found in Britain. The addition of the E484K mutation made it difficult for viruses to be blocked by antibodies. The researchers wrote that they “observed a significant loss of neutralizing activity.”

If you liked the British Super Crown, you will love the British Super Crown. See now why Fauci and CDC have been dedicated to encouraging people to disguise themselves? It’s not because Fauci is a happy one that he won’t rest until we all walk around in moon dresses. This is because foreign strains are already circulating here and it seems unlikely that we will get a significant number of people vaccinated before they have done a lot of damage. If the supercrown extends more easily than the crown, the obvious thing to do is to add an additional filter to the airways to avoid preventing its inhalation.

I’ll leave you with a hopeful note from former FDA chief Scott Gottlieb who believes that SARS-CoV-2 is mutating slowly enough to move us forward with an aggressive vaccination regimen. It is important to note that while South African and Brazilian strains appear to be able to reinfect people, the jury still knows if they are more contagious than the common COVID. The British variant seems to have this advantage in that it has quickly become the dominant strain in the UK, but the other nefarious strains may not spread as quickly. They are a little harder to deal with than usual antibodies. Output Question: Why will you have to spend “weeks” with the FDA to decide if Modern can fill its vaccine vials with 15 doses instead of 10, how do you want to do it? This means a 50% increase in production instantly. And time is of the essence.

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