Will the Charlotte Hornets be able to continue their advancement in the NBA playoffs without rookie star Lamelo Ball?
The Hornets announced Sunday that Ball, the third overall pick in this year’s draft, suffered a fractured right wrist. seconds Adrian Wojnarowski, From ESPN, is expected to miss the rest of the season, which means a big disappointment given the level of play the base showed.
Led by newcomers Ball and Gordon Hayward alongside Terry Rozier, Charlotte is in playoff positions in the Eastern Conference. With a 20-21 record, the Hornets are just 1.5 games from fourth in the East, but also 1.5 duels from falling in the tenth and having to win two games as visitors to reach the postseason.
How much will Lamelo’s injury affect Charlotte’s push into the playoffs? How should the Hornets approach Thursday’s change deadline? And what does the absence of Ball mean for the Novice of the Year career? We analyze the possible consequences of the unfortunate injury.
Ball’s production translates into victories
Last month, along with Mike Schmitz, we looked at how historic Ball’s productivity level has been for a 19-year-old rookie. It hasn’t changed since. In any case, Lamelo has gained strength since arriving in Charlotte in early February. In 21 games as a starter, he averaged 19.5 points, 6.2 assists and 5.8 rebounds per game.
Perhaps most importantly, Ball has compiled these numbers with remarkable efficiency for such a young player. His actual shot percentage of 562 (TS%) is generally better than the average base (560), and he has improved to 586 as a starter. Although as expected, he has had problems with ball losses at times (averaging 3.5 every 36 minutes), his efficiency as a scorer contrasts sharply with that of the No. 1 pick Anthony Edwards of the Minnesota Timberwolves, 483 TS% is more typical of a developing adolescent.
As a result, Ball has been more than an exciting infusion of hope for a franchise that has yet to win a series of playoffs in 16 seasons – it has been a key part of the Hornets returning to the playoff scene. They’ve had an 11-10 mark since they promoted Ball to the starting eleven despite playing 10 of those games without starter Devonte ‘Graham, who has returned as a reserve since the All-Star play-off .
On the plus side, a healthy Graham means Charlotte coach, James Borrego, Can still put together a solid base rotation in the absence of Ball. The Hornets will surely return with Graham and Rozier, who started together during the 2019-20 season and during the first month, more this year, with Malik Monk and the Martin twins as reserve options.
According to advanced NBA statistics, Graham-Rozier’s no-ball lineups have played almost even this season (net rating of minus 0.5), so Charlotte’s push into the playoffs barely sinks. But the Hornets find little room for additional injuries as a home base. Ball or Graham have been on the court for more than 90% of the team’s minutes this campaign, so Rozier will be asked to make more plays than he has made in the entire year. And Charlotte has no other traditional shipowner besides the new Grant Riller, so an injury to Graham or Rozier would force Borrego to depend on Hayward as a winger with second units.
As noted, there is also little margin if the Hornets want to avoid a difficult path into the postseason. Prior to Ball’s injury, ESPN’s Basketball Power Index-based projections gave Charlotte a 27 percent chance of finishing in the top six and avoiding play-in. With only a handful of games separating the home advantage from last place in the play-in, a win or two difference the rest of the way could have a big impact on the Hornets ’positioning.
Is it possible to help the Hornets change deadline?
Ball’s injury should affect the way the Hornets approach the deadline. It was possible that Charlotte could have used $ 4 million in remaining space in the salary cap along with the $ 15.4 million salary that expired from veteran pivot Cody Zeller to look for another key player for a push to the playoffs. This never made much sense for a team the most promising player is a teenager, and it seems even more unlikely with Ball out of lineup.
Ideally, the Hornets would use their space in the salary cap to retrieve a contract from another team. Because the lists are limited to 15 players with full NBA contracts during the season, uneven deals in which a team recovers more players than it sends to match the salary get complicated quickly. Charlotte can step in to add one of those players using an open spot on the roster while receiving cash compensation or also with a second-round draft pick.
Hornets may be able to use flexibility to help another team and add depth as a base baser. For example, if the Golden State Warriors wanted to move Brad Wanamaker’s $ 2.3 million salary to cut his luxury tax bill, now that Nico Mannion has earned a spot in the rotation, Charlotte would be a destination natural.
If not, he would call the Timberwolves over substitute owner Jordan McLaughlin, who has a two-way contract but has been productive every time he has seen minutes of rotation. If McLaughlin could be hired in exchange for a low-value second-round pick (the Hornets have second-round players this year from both the Brooklyn Nets and the LA Clippers), he would add valuable insurance behind Graham and Rozier.
It is possible that Ball is still the Rookie of the Year
Although not as important as the impact for Charlotte, Ball’s injury opens the door for another player to win the Rookie of the Year award, which he had apparently secured when he was healthy. At the same time, the Rookie of the Year has not depended so much on good health compared to the Most Valuable Player, which I talked about on Saturday after LeBron James ’ankle sprain.
In 2011-12, Kyrie Irving won the Rookie of the Year award while playing 77% of games in the shortened block season (51 of 66), while Brandon Roy won in 2006-07 playing only 70% (57 of 82). And in 1985-86, Patrick Ewing was the Rookie of the Year despite playing only 50 games (61%), close to 57% of Ball (41 of 72) if his season really ended.
With a smaller field of contenders and more variation in terms of productivity on the track, it’s inevitable that durability will be a minor factor for the Rookie of the Year. We saw that voters put a lower limit on the amount of games needed when Joel Embiid finished third in the vote in 2016-17, when he was clearly the most effective rookie but played only 31 games (38%).
Compared to 2016-17, when Malcolm Brogdon became the first player selected in the second round to win the Ninth of the Year since Woody Sauldsberry in 1957-1958, the field seems deeper this season. Still, Ball had established a great advantage in terms of statistical value. Consider Ball’s advantage in terms of wins over substitution (WAR) over the actual more or less ESPN.
Rookies – leaders in victories over replacement
1. LaMelo Ball: 4.2 WAR
2. Immanuel Quickley: 1.8 (WAR)
3. Desmond Bane: 1.2 (WAR)
4. Saddiq Bey: 1.2 (WAR)
5. Isaiah Stewart: 0.9 (WAR)
Ball has produced nearly twice as many replacement wins as any other rookie so far, leading a group of players selected outside the top 10 who have generally thrived in smaller roles. Their advantage over the other top five picks in generating the kind of stats per game that typically translates into Rookie of the Year is even more dramatic. No one else in this group qualifies as better than the replacement level so far.
WAR of the ‘top 5’ of the draft
1. LaMelo Ball: 4.2 (WAR)
2. James Wiseman: 0.0 (WAR)
3. Anthony Edwards: -1.2 (WAR)
4. Patrick Williams: -1.4 (WAR)
5. Isaac Okoro: -1.9 (WAR)
It is too early to rule out the Rookie of the Year race, as it is possible for a contender to explode in the final two months of the season. But the advantage Ball has at the moment, will make it difficult to catch him.