This is the projection of the University of Liverpool, in England, according to the epidemiologist Alfonso Rosales. It would go from 278 to almost 600 new infections a day
According to the projection of epidemiological experts from the University of Liverpool, in England, for El Salvador a dark picture is expected for the first months of 2021.
Alfonso Rosales, doctor and consultant in epidemiology, quoted that according to studies of this entity “a doubling of cases is projected in El Salvador, which we will be seeing in 135 days. number of current cases we have (276 on December 29). The pressure that this is going to exert on the Health System will be much greater than we experienced in the previous peak “that the country suffered, between the months of June and July.
Rosales, who participated as a guest on Canal 33 this Wednesday morning along with also the infectologist Iván Solano Leiva, also explained that at the level of Central America, El Salvador is at 2% of acceleration of new SAR-Cov-2 infections per week, while other countries in the area are decelerating cases: Guatemala with -18%, Honduras -21% and Costa Rica -7%. Very serious is happening in Panama, which is accelerating by 36%, according to Rosales.
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The specialist considered that this increase in cases in El Salvador “is related to the behavior of the population at this Christmas time, the protection measures have been relaxed too much, there is too much crowding.”
Solano Leiva agreed that “in El Salvador we are facing a rise in cases, after in July it was the highest number of cases we had, the peak of this first outbreak of COVID in our country. three weeks or four, we have seen that these averages according to official data have been rising, today above 250 cases per day “.
Although he insisted that the Government’s figures are not entirely reliable, he remarked that even these numbers reflect a rise. Solano Leiva warned that “we are seeing in the public system that a percentage of ICU beds and hospitalizations for COVID-19 is beginning to be noticed”, and regretted that everything points to “we will have a start of 2021 with more cases, with the risk that the health system will collapse again, as happened in the fateful months of June and July. “
The country’s hospital capacity is already reaching its maximum capacity for the care of COVID-19 patients, explained Solano Leiva, and detailed that at the Hospital del Salvador in Cifco, “until a few days ago, we they reported that the capacity to use the ICU beds was 92% occupancy. In 80% the intermediate NICUs, and from 25 to 30% the general beds. “
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Regarding the situation in other care centers, Solano Leiva said that “the Surgical Doctor (of the ISSS) has about 50 to 60 beds for COVID patients, and in recent weeks one of the two services for and the ICU of the General Hospital is treating COVID patients, as is the Amatepec of the Social Security, and with each passing day its capacity for employment with patients confirmed with the new Coronavirus.
Several private hospitals have months of not receiving COVID-19 patients, and according to Solano Leiva, in this sector “the only hospital that is receiving is the Graó Medical Center, which has a capacity for 15 beds, which until yesterday at night (Tuesday) they were full, something we hadn’t seen in weeks. “
Both doctors lamented that the management of the pandemic has been politicized in the country, rather than giving it a technical and scientific approach. In this regard, Solano Leiva has criticized that “it is a lie that the Ministry of Health does not have the necessary tools to take appropriate measures to help reduce the spread of VOCID-19 in our country,” and noted that the Code Health allows you to apply economic or civil sanctions.
In the opinion of the representative also of the Medical College of El Salvador, “the Health Code, in its Article 131 establishes what to do when there are epidemics in the country, what measures can be taken. Unfortunately, we have heard Mr. Minister (of Health, Francisco Alabi) and many officials saying that they are handcuffed, that they can not establish any kind of economic or civil sanctions, or denounce those people who carry out activities where there are mass events, where they are not kept prevention measures “.
So that the projection of twice as many cases in April does not happen, both doctors asked the population not to lower their guard with the necessary preventive measures, and asked the Government for a better communication campaign on the risks of VOCID -19 and ways to prevent its spread.