India-Pakistan secret peace roadmap brokered by major Arab emirates

Photographer: Aamir Qureshi / AFP / Getty Images

Some 24 hours after the military leaders of India and Pakistan surprised the world last month with a rare joint commitment to abide by a 2003 ceasefire agreement, the UAE’s top diplomat came to New Delhi. to make a quick one-day visit.

The official UAE Reading the February 26 meeting gave little clue as to what Foreign Minister Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed had spoken to his Indian counterpart Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, noting that “they discussed all regional and international issues of ‘common interest and exchanged views on them’.

However, behind closed doors, the India-Pakistan ceasefire marked a milestone in the secret talks promoted by the UAE that began months earlier, according to officials aware of the situation who asked not to be identified. One said the ceasefire is just the beginning of a bigger country roadmap to forge a lasting peace between the neighbors, both with nuclear weapons and regularly saving in a decades-long territorial dispute.

The next step in the process, the official said, involves the two sides returning envoys to New Delhi and Islamabad, which were withdrawn in 2019 after Pakistan protested India’s decision to revoke seven decades of autonomy for in the disputed Muslim state of Jammu and Kashmir. Then comes the hardest part: talks on the resumption of trade and a lasting resolution on Kashmir, the subject of three wars since India and Pakistan became independent from Britain in 1947.

Over the years, India and Pakistan have routinely made peace openings just to bring them down quickly, mostly because both sides often use the issue to provoke emotions around elections. Officials said expectations were low that the current arrest would be achieved far beyond the return of envoys and the resumption of trade across its land border with Punjab.

But this process seems to be the most concerted effort in recent years and comes as the Biden administration seeks broader peace talks on Afghanistan, a place where the two countries have struggled for years to influence. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi wants to foster growth and focus military resources on the border with China, while Pakistani leaders are also facing economic problems and looking to make a good impression with the US and other powers.

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Pakistan did not comment on the talks or the role of the UAE, while the Ministries of Foreign Affairs of India and the UAE did not make any immediate comments.

Last week, Pakistani Army General Qamar Javed Bajwa he called on India to “bury the past and move forward” while saying the army was willing to start talks to resolve “all our outstanding issues”. The comments came a day after Prime Minister Imran Khan called for a resolution on Kashmir, which he described as “the only issue holding us back”.

On Saturday, Modi sent a tweet wishing Khan to be diagnosed with Covid-19, another sign that relations between the countries are heating up.

The United Arab Emirates, which has historic trade and diplomatic relations with India and Pakistan, has taken on a more vindictive international role under the de facto ruler Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan. The most important change has been in the Middle East, where the Arab Gulf state has intervened in conflicts and supported regional groups and leaders. But it has also looked to Asia as it strengthens political alliances beyond its role as a global trading and logistics hub.

India-Pakistan ties were effectively severed two years ago after a suicide attack in India-controlled Kashmir killed 40 Indian soldiers, prompting the Modi government to authorize airstrikes on alleged terrorist facilities in Pakistan. . He Last month’s joint statement said the two sides “agreed to address the other’s core issues,” which pointed to a broader debate on Kashmir and terrorism.

Several indications in recent months pointed to the role of the United Arab Emirates. In November, Jaishankar met with Bin Zayed and the Crown Prince on a two-day visit to Abu Dhabi, followed by the next Foreign Minister, Shah Mahmood Qureshi, the following month. About two weeks before the February 25 announcement, the UAE foreign minister held a phone call with Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan, “where they discussed regional and international issues of interest.” And a few days earlier, India allowed Khan’s planes to fly over Indian airspace on its way to Sri Lanka for a state visit, a practice suspended since the 2019 hostilities.

After the ceasefire, the United Arab Emirates was one of the few countries to issue one statement welcoming the announcement of the ceasefire, highlighting the “close historical ties” it maintains with India and Pakistan and welcoming “the efforts made by both countries to reach this agreement “. In Washington, State Department spokesman Ned Price dodged a question about what role the United States played in bringing the two sides together while urging Pakistan to play a constructive role in Afghanistan, Kashmir and others. places.

“Viously, obviously, Pakistan has an important role to play when it comes to Afghanistan and what is happening on the other border,” Price said on Feb. 25. “Of course we will be very attentive.”

– With the assistance of Sylvia Westall and Faseeh Mangi