Iranian President Hassan Rouhani speaks during the meeting of the National Coronavirus Combat Board (Covid-19) in Tehran, Iran, on November 21, 2020.
Iranian Presidency Brochure | Anadolu Agency | Getty Images
The United States and Iran will resume talks on Friday aimed at restoring confidence and saving what Washington calls “huge and profound differences” over how to save its failed nuclear deal.
Iranian President Hassan Rouhani told a cabinet meeting in Tehran on Wednesday that the first talks with the US and world powers in Vienna to rescue the deal were a “success” that opened a “new chapter” to save the day. ‘agreement, according to a statement through its official website.
Both countries described Tuesday’s indirect talks as a “useful step” and “constructive”, although neither representative met face-to-face. Officials chose to use the European signatories to the agreement to act as intermediaries.
“We are not optimistic or pessimistic about the outcome of this meeting now, but we are confident that we are on the right track,” said Ali Rabiei, a spokesman for the Iranian government. “Surely the full implementation of this agreement will be finalized in the coming weeks,” he added.
Tehran is taking an “all or nothing” approach to the talks. He wants Washington to guarantee the total elimination of Trump-era sanctions to reduce his enrichment activity. The Iranian side is also under pressure from the weather, with presidential elections scheduled for June this year to oust President Rouhani and Foreign Minister Javad Zarif.
Washington, however, is seeking a “compliance-to-compliance” approach, with President Joe Biden ruling out any “unilateral gesture,” but still open to exploring how the U.S. could also resume its own compliance with the agreement.
It seems that an economic olive branch has already failed, with Iran describing a US proposal to release $ 1 billion in frozen oil in exchange for Iran limiting its uranium enrichment program as ” ridiculous “.
“The first issue these talks will have to address is the basic disconnect in the approach,” Kirsten Fontenrose of Scowcroft’s Middle East Security Initiative told CNBC’s Hadley Gamble on Wednesday.
“Until you square this circle, you won’t be able to get anywhere,” he said.
With a view to resuming talks in Vienna on Friday, two working groups were set up to establish the framework for the negotiation. The first group focuses on the issue of US sanctions, which were imposed by the Trump administration after abandoning the original agreement in 2018.
The second group is exploring how to return Iran to meet the limits set by the original JCPOA on enrichment and reserves of enriched uranium. Iran has repeatedly violated the terms of the agreement, causing concern among European and global signatories and causing tensions among its Middle Eastern neighbors.
Friday’s talks could set the stage for more constructive talks or a full-on showdown. In the past, Iran used the first week of April to celebrate its “Nuclear Technology Day,” which showcases the country’s nuclear achievements. The event was delayed last year due to the coronavirus outbreak.
“This day is an opportunity for people to see that in these years, despite economic pressures, what great advances and successes have been made in the field of the country’s nuclear technologies,” President Rouhani said.
Impact of oil
Oil prices recovered slightly at the conclusion of the first talks. According to analysts, a breakthrough could be bearish for crude oil, if it raises the prospect of large quantities of Iran’s oil exports returning to the market.
“If I was sitting at an oil trading desk, I would probably think I’m in a pretty safe space, because it looks like it will continue as it has been,” Fontenrose said.
“We will not have much trouble because we are not approaching the recovery of Iranian oil in the market and we do not see any major step by Iran or the Gulf that is destabilizing the flow of energy,” he added. .