After a sharp drop in daily COVID-19 cases in New York City, daily infections remain stubbornly high at 3,700.
The stalemate coincides with the arrival on the scene of a suspicious tempter: a variant known as B1526 that first emerged in Upper Manhattan in November.
According to the latest data, as of Feb. 23, the variant accounted for 34% of New York State coronavirus samples tested to see if they contained any of the various variants that spread across the U.S., according to outbreak.info .
This is a fivefold increase a week earlier, when only six percent of New York samples sent to the national GISAID database were positive for B1256 mutations.
But this dramatic increase is not the whole story. The United States is also finally stepping up this type of testing, which requires scientists to sequence the entire genome of a virus sample, making it more likely to find the variant.
Virologists warn against these assumptions, especially when the New York variant is so new and still being investigated.
But the New York variant contains mutations observed in others that better infect people, and its growing prevalence could threaten the recovery of COVID-19 cases in New York as previous declines stop.
The “New York” variant, B1526, was detected in 34% of samples in the state that tested mutations, an increase of five times the previous week, when it was detected in only 6% of samples of New York.
New COVID-19 cases remain stubbornly high in New York City, where the average 7-day case is 3,700
It also occurs amid administrative chaos in New York.
In addition to facing allegations of sexual misconduct, Governor Andrew Cuomo is also being investigated for hiding data on the actual burden of COVID-19 deaths in residences.
And having a clear picture of how the pandemic is going in New York has become increasingly difficult in the months since Cuomo briefly became a bastion of transparency thanks to its daily COVID briefings.
Now, the New York State Department of Health reports that there were 7,593 new positive tests on Wednesday.
That day, the state registered 4,025 cases in New York City.
New York City has stopped reporting daily cases on its health department website, but Mayor Bill de Blasio tweeted that the city yesterday saw 3,270 new cases of COVID-19.
Meanwhile, data from Johns Hopkins University yesterday showed 6,564 new cases in New York State.
Therefore, it is not clear how many new cases of coronavirus there were yesterday in the city or state, but regardless of the data used, the decrease in cases has been reduced.
The New York variant was first detected in the Washington Heights neighborhood of Upper Manhattan in mid-November.
He is believed to have had the opportunity to develop into a person who had advanced AIDS.
Scientists have warned that there are two main opportunities for the virus to take on significant mutations leading to new strains: high rates of infections and infections in immunocompromised patients, where the virus can last longer, “learn” the human immune system and develop -se mutations that help it survive the extinguished attacks of our bodies.
The prevalence of the variant has also increased in the United States as a whole, accounting for more than 30% of the samples tested. But Outbreak.info points out that there have been fewer samples submitted recently, which may distort the prevalence of the variant
The variant was identified around the time New York entered its second wave of COVID-19 infections, which also coincides with the holiday season, making it unlikely that the variant was responsible. of this increase in cases.
But now that B1526 cases are doubling every month, according to outbreak.info data, it may be contributing to the high and stable rate of general cases in New York.
Stable case declines are being observed across the country. Experts believe it is motivated by several causes: the presence of more transmissible and infectious variants, such as the B117 form in the UK, the “pandemic fatigue” among Americans who are tired of wearing masks and staying home, and restrictions are relaxed in many states.
Variant B117 is arguably the most common mutant in the US (apart from the wild type).
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has confirmed at least 2,500 cases of B117 in 46 states and predicted in January that the variant would become dominant during this month, March.
CDC Director Dr. Rochelle Walensky issued a strong warning about the spread of variants: “Please listen to me clearly: at this level of cases with variants extending, we are completely losing ground.” , he said on a Monday. White House press conference.
At least one case of the New York variant has been identified in St. Maarten, Japan, Singapore, Croatia, Ireland and the United Kingdom, in addition to the 1,113 found in the U.S., according to Outbreak.info
The variant has been detected in 22 states, including Texas, Mississippi, New Mexico, Wyoming, New Jersey and Michigan.
“These variants are a real threat to our people and to our progress. Now is not the time to relax the critical safeguards we know could stop the spread of COVID-19 in our communities, not when we are so close.” .
Variants from South Africa and Brazil are also in the United States. There are at least 65 cases of variant B1351 from South Africa and 10 cases of variant P1 from Brazil to America.
So could home variants be a threat to the progress of the states where they arose?
Dr. Anthony Fauci surely entertains this possibility.
He warned that the New York variant “is now gaining ground” and said the Biden administration is “taking it very seriously” during Wednesday’s press session.
There is still no solid evidence that the variant is more transmissible or deadly.
But their mutations suggest that variant B1526 is more adept at infecting human cells.
It has mutations in the E484K and S477N locations throughout its genome.
Laboratory tests and observations of variants with these mutations suggest that they make it difficult to detect the virus for antibodies and that they improve infection of human cells.
Among the “California” and “New York” variants, the New York one is “most interesting,” Dr. Kristian Andersen, an immunologist at Scripps Research University, said in a Twitter thread.
Like the South African and Brazilian variants, the New York variant seems to “elude some Ab [antibody] immunity, in a part of the country with high levels of immunity, “Dr. Andersen wrote, referring to the fact that a high proportion of New Yorkers have already had COVID-19 since the Big Apple became the ‘epicenter of the pandemic last spring.
It is still too early to say whether the variant is the one that favors the number of cases in New York, but Dr. Anderson wrote that it certainly justifies the investigation.
And with the variant now presented identified in 22 states, the answer to this question could have national implications.
But it is crucial to note that even if all of the scientists ’biggest concerns about the New York variant prove true, it is not yet proven to be more transmissible (i.e., masks and social distancing will continue to work) no it seems to make people sick or more likely to die and is unlikely to completely avoid vaccine-induced immunity and antibodies.
In short: the variant is worth seeing and worrying about, but don’t panic.
