Early in his outing Monday night against the Toronto Blue Jays on a clear night in Dunedin, Florida, the New York Yankees, Gerrit Cole, were struggling to get a good groove. He allowed to run in the first inning in two opposing ground ball games of opposing field and an indoor field of play, but it was more the visible frustration on his face when he let a couple of balls break in the area than they suggested the Jays were better off him when they had a chance.
Toronto got the first two runners to the bottom of the second, a golden opportunity to stretch that initial lead. Cole found that groove exactly when he needed it. Alejandro Kirk ventured into three pitches, getting him to look at a slider at the end of the area. He hit Josh Palacios swinging with a 98 mph heater above the top of the area. He hit Marcus Semien making a 2-2 change in the outside corner. Three different throws: slider, fast ball, change of situations, all in great places.
The Blue Jays had left Cole hooked. He jumped off the mound after hitting Semien, ran into the cavity, and cooled off in front of a large fan. Cole threw 43 pitches the first two innings, but found control of the ball fast, tightened the slider and withdrew the last 15 batters he faced, settling for eight attacks and three hits allowed in six entries, as the Yankees won 3-1, with receiver Kyle Higashioka leading in all three races in two home runs. Cole needed just 55 pitches to get past the next four innings, and on his 98th and final pitch, Cole painted black with a 99.2 mph fast ball.
“I just thought we were settling in, really nothing more than that,” Cole said. “There are big flaws in the first, but not a ton of bad pitches in the strike zone. In the second, a much better pooling of pitches, a kind of combination of early sliders and a solid approach.”
This is the story of the 10 games of the Yankees season: Cole each time resembles one of the first three pitchers in the game. The rest of the Yankees’ rotation, however, remains a big question mark. Domingo German, who started the third game of the New York season, was already relegated to the team’s alternate spot after allowing four homers on two difficult outings. Jordan Montgomery had an excellent first outing and then allowed two homers and hit two batters in a second outing. Corey Kluber has struggled with the command and continues to look for the speed and turn rates he achieved before the forearm and shoulder injuries that cost him most of the 2019 and 2020 seasons.
Cole has an ERA of 1.47 in three starts, while the rest of the starters have combined with an ERA of 5.28. All things small, of course, and Jameson Taillon, who has the advantage of a No. 2 starter, has yet to make his second outing. Still, nothing at first has resolved Yankees fans ’concerns about how everyone is behind Cole.
Can the Yankees meet their preseason projection of 95 wins (or more) without a solid and reliable No. 2 starter? It’s an important question, because the difference between 95 wins and, say, 90 wins is obviously significant. A 95-win season makes the Yankees favorites to win the Eastern American League; they drop up to 90 wins and the Rays, Blue Jays and maybe even the Red Sox are more likely to breathe through their necks.
I looked at all the teams to win at least 95 games from 2010 to 2019 (i.e. 42 teams) and checked the value of their No. 1 and No. 2 starters, based strictly on Baseball-Reference WAR and not on games initiated or launched entries (in search of quality over quantity). There are two results to consider here: the difference in WAR between the first two headlines and the combined WAR of the first two headlines.
Let’s start with the latter. The 42 teams averaged 8.6 WARs from their first two starters; I was a little surprised that it wasn’t superior. A pitcher of 2 WARS is a league average starter, so we are looking for, on average, between four and five wins above the average between the top two starters of our teams with 95 wins. Here are the top five and bottom five totals on this list:
Top five
1. Phillies 2011 (102 wins): 17.3 WAR (Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee)
2. Astros 2019 (107 wins): 14.1 WAR (Justin Verlander and Cole)
3. Phillies 2010 (97 wins): 14.0 WAR (Halladay and Lee)
4. Nationals of 2017 (97 wins): 13.7 WAR (Max Scherzer and Gio Gonzalez)
5. Indians 2017 (102 victories): 13.1 WAR (Kluber and Carlos Carrasco)
Bottom five
1. Brewers 2018 (96 wins): 3.4 WAR (Jhoulys Chacin and Wade Miley)
2. In 2018 (97 wins): 3.8 WAR (Sean Manaea and Edwin Jackson)
3. 2019 Yankees (103 wins): 4.8 WAR (James Paxton and German)
4. Oriols of 2014 (96 victories): 5.0 WAR (Chris Tillman and Miguel González)
5. In 2019 (97 wins): 5.0 WAR (Mike Fiers and Brett Anderson)
The Yankees can only look at their recent past to realize that not only 95 games can be won, but 103 without a first-class 1-2 combined. In 2019, Paxton went from 15 to 6 with an ERA of 3.82 in 29 starts (2.6 WAR) and the German from 18 to 4, but with an ERA of 4.03 in 24 starts (2.2 WAR). Thanks to a dominant bullpen and offense that swept with 306 homers and led the AL with 943 runs, the Yankees won the AL East.
The average difference between the number 1 and number 2 starters of our teams with 95 victories was 1.6 WAR. Cole was worth 6.7 WAR during his last season with the Astros in 2019, so he is reasonably projected as a 6-win pitcher in 2021. Similarly, it is reasonably believed that the No. 2 starter in the Yankees will be 4 wins. pitcher, therefore, if Taillon or whoever ends up being his number 2 is a league average pitcher, it is a potential difference of 4 WARS compared to Cole. The top five biggest differences from our studio teams:
1. 2011 Tigers (95 wins): 6.1 WAR (Verlander and Doug Fister)
2. Cubs 2015 (97 victories): 5.5 WAR (Jake Arrieta and Jon Lester)
3. 2011 Yankees (97 wins): 3.5 WAR (CC Sabathia and Freddy Garcia)
4. Rays 2010 (96 wins): 3.1 WAR (David Price and Matt Garza)
5. Phillies 2010 (97 wins): 3.0 WAR (Halladay and Lee)
Is there anything to conclude? It’s true that Cole’s relegation to the Yankees ’No. 2 starter could be quite exceptional for a 95-win team … suggesting that if no one goes behind Cole, the Yankees are likely to win fewer than 95 games. . On the other hand, Cole and a No. 2 league average are historically good enough to lead a 95-win team.
Perhaps the best answer is this: it is the depth of rotation that will be the ultimate determining factor for how many games the Yankees win (assuming a high-powered offense, which we should keep in mind that has not yet begun). As he demonstrated on Monday, Gerrit Cole will be fantastic if he stays healthy. Still, we still have a lot to learn about Corey Kluber & Co.