The Israelis will go to the polls next Tuesday for the fourth time in two years, with Netanyahu campaigning aggressively against a split opposition.
Why it’s important: Netanyahu’s narrow path to a 61-seat majority would require him to form an ultra-right government, dependent on the votes of Jewish supremacists and anti-LGBT and pro-annexation members of the Knesset. By majority, Netanyahu could pass a law or take other steps to delay or end his corruption trial.
- He denies that this is his goal, but potential members of his coalition have announced they would support it.
The state of play: Current polls show Netanyahu’s bloc with 58 seats, but things could easily change in his direction on election day.
- Israel’s 3.25% electoral threshold means several small parties will win around four seats or be left completely out.
- Voter fatigue, especially on the left, also makes turnout unpredictable.
Three scenarios
- If one or more of the three small anti-Netanyahu parties falls short, this could change the whole balance of power and get Netanyahu to reach the magic number of 61. This is a very likely scenario.
- If participation falls between Netanyahu’s supporters and the right-wing Zionist Religious Party fails to cross the threshold, there would be a window for a center-right government formed by Netanyahu’s opponents. This is an unlikely scenario.
- If current polls turn out to be accurate and neither side can form a coalition, Israel will run in the fifth election this summer. This is very possible.
The split of the opposition has made life a reality more difficult for Netanyahu in one sense: unlike the last three cycles, he has no clear rival left to rally his fans.
- More than a face-to-face race where Netanyahu can repeat the “it’s us or them” argument, he has three opponents leading all mid-sized matches.
The other contenders
1. Yair Lapid and the centrist party Yesh Atid (There is a Future). A former journalist, Lapid is the current opposition leader in the Knesset.
- What to see: Lapid has not even stated that he wants to be prime minister and says he is willing to let someone else have the job to get rid of Netanyahu. Netanyahu has focused his campaign on Lapid, but has largely failed to position it as a face-to-face contest.
- By numbers: Yesh Atid gets about 20 seats at the polls, a distant second from Netanyahu’s Likud, which has about 30.
2. Naftali Bennett and the right-wing party Yamina (Right). A former technology entrepreneur, Bennett focused his campaign on COVID-19 and the economy.
- What to see: While Bennett has stressed the need to replace Netanyahu, he has not ruled out joining a Netanyahu-led government. This could make him a councilor if the election results are not final.
- By numbers: Yamina only polls around the twelve seats, but it might be impossible to form a coalition that excludes Netanyahu without handing Bennett the job of prime minister.
3. Gideon Sa’ar and the right-wing New Hope party. Sa’ar, a former education and interior minister, left Likud in an attempt to position himself as an older, less populist right-wing alternative to Netanyahu.
- By numbers: Sa’ar’s party has fallen to the polls, going from 18 seats to nine in recent polls.
The summary: Only a power-sharing agreement between Lapid, Bennett and Sa’ar could produce a new Israeli government without Netanyahu. This cooperation between all three will be very difficult to achieve.