Exit polls for Israel’s fourth election in two years suggested that Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party was ahead, but a clear parliamentary majority needed to form a government and end the political stalemate was still lacking.
Unofficial figures from three major television channels released on Tuesday evening showed the Likud party with about 31-33 seats in the 120-seat parliament, the Knesset. That was much more than the leader of the opposition, Yair Lapid, predicted would occupy about 16-18 seats.
However, post-vote polls have proven to be unreliable in the past. Critically, to form a 61-seat majority coalition, Netanyahu will have to convince other parties to join him. Political negotiations could fail, which could result in an unwanted fifth election this summer.
Reacting to the results of the exit poll, Netanyahu stopped declaring victory, but said voters had expressed remarkable ideological preference. “It is clear that a clear majority of Israeli citizens are on the right wing,” he said he said on Twitter.
In an election night speech at a Likud rally, he said the expected number of party seats in parliament was “a great success” and that he hoped to form a “stable right-wing government”.
“I will bring together all elected officials who share our principles. I will not exclude anyone, “he told supporters.
The prime minister has waited for voters to accredit him for a coronavirus vaccination campaign that hit the world and has led Israel to reopen shops, bars and restaurants at the same time. worsening infection rates.
“We are the world champions in coronavirus manipulation,” Netanyahu told the crowds ahead of the vote.
At a polling station in Jerusalem, when asked who she wanted to win, voter Sima Levy said, using her nickname: “Always for Bibi Netanyahu”. The 58-year-old real estate broker added, “What he has done for us and still does, is for the country … I think he is protected by God.”
The politician the preferred path to victory would be what is called a “full-right government,” made up of extreme nationalist, religious, and far-right parties.
Allies of ultra-Orthodox Jewish factions will be supported for support, such as Aryeh Deri, who said Sunday that it was not a woman’s “natural place” to be a candidate for the party, Shas, which she leads.
The prime minister may also need the support of a group considered even more extreme: an alliance called religious Zionism, which includes politicians who have expressed anti-gay views and want to expel “disloyal” Arabs from the state.
Haaretz, Israel’s most prominent left-wing role, has called this potential outcome a “nightmare” for “anyone other than a nationalist extremist who believes in Jewish supremacy.”
Although most Israelis say they want to leave Netanyahu, he remains extremely popular compared to other candidates, despite facing multiple corruption charges, including bribes and fraud. He denies the charges.
Perhaps tired after repeated rounds of voting during a protracted crisis, or possibly due to the unusually dusty hot weather, this year’s turnout seems to have dropped to its lowest level in more than a decade.
Shortly after voting, Robert Rosenschein, 67, who lives in Jerusalem, said political stagnation had created apathy with the political process. “There’s more exhaustion than usual because you also have Covid fatigue,” he added.
In opposition, Lapid, a former TV presenter and finance minister, hoped his Yesh Atid party could become a major force. However, to do so, the self-proclaimed “centrist” will likely have to forge alliances with parties across the political spectrum, from Arab parliamentarians to far-right nationalists such as Netanyahu Avigdor’s former ally. Lieberman.
Lapid has taken on the role of opposition leader Benny Gantz, a former army chief who fought Netanyahu in the last three elections but lost support after making a power-sharing deal. which eventually collapsed. Exit polls showed that Gantz was only expected to occupy about 7-8 seats, compared to 33 in the last election a year ago.
More than 6.3 million people had the right to vote. For election day, the military closed the steps with the occupied West Bank, where more than 2.5 million Palestinians live under Israeli rule but cannot vote.
Full results could take days to arrive.
Matti Tuchfeld, a commentator for the Israel Hayom newspaper, said there were great uncertainties surrounding the election.
Israeli law dictates that parties need a minimum of 3.25% of all votes even to enter the Knesset, which means that fractional changes at the polls could significantly influence the results.
“No one knows what will happen this time,” he wrote. “The election results are definitely unpredictable. There is only one thing that is clear: it should not surprise us if it finally surprises us a lot ”.
Questions
What is happening?
Israelis voted in the country’s fourth national election on Tuesday in less than two years.
Why would they do that?
According to the country’s political system, it is extremely difficult for a party to win a direct majority in the 120-seat parliament, the Knesset. In the past, governments were made up of parties grouped together to form a coalition. However, recent attempts continue to break down.
How is that?
It depends on who you ask and there is definitely an element of bad luck. However, the fissures that have kept Israel in limbo are related to one man: Benjamin Netanyahu. The oldest leader in the country has become a stalemate due to his internal division, being adored and detested.
How were the previous three votes?
“King Bibi,” as he is known, appeared to defeat former army chief and opposition leader Benny Gantz in the first elections in April 2019, but was blocked to form a government by a disgruntled former ally, far-right nationalist Avigdor Lieberman. The next election saw Netanyahu and Gantz in a virtual tie and both were torpedoed by the power race. A third vote ended in a government, a compromise in which Netanyahu and Gantz agreed to rotate the prime minister. But that deal collapsed in December.
What about the Netanyahu corruption case?
The 71-year-old leader has been formally charged with corruption (charges he denies) and is scheduled to continue hearings next month. Political analysts in Israel have speculated that Netanyahu broke the last government, as he was to hand over power to Gantz. They say they would rather risk other elections in hopes of being able to fight the charges from the powerful prime minister.
Has anything ever changed?
Many of the key players remain the same, although some have changed. Gantz, who had campaigned for the promise to expel Netanyahu, but who later renounced and joined him, lost much support. Yair Lapid, Gantz’s former running mate, who appeals to middle-class secular Israelis, is now the leader of the opposition.
Is employment a problem in these elections?
Israel’s domestic policy has fallen to the right and the fate of millions of Palestinians under Israeli military control has almost disappeared from election campaigns.
When will we know the results?
Voting figures will enter early in the morning on Wednesday, but it may take days to count the ballots. If the result gets muddy again, the real battle for power can take weeks. Current polls show a deadlock, so there is a possibility the country could face a dreaded fifth election.