It’s not easy to find successful trends for the Jets, but as Robert Saleh prepares to put on his headphones for the first time in Charlotte, North Carolina on Sunday, there’s this: the Jets are 5-2 in their last seven opening games with new training regimes.
The winners were Bill Parcells (1997, 41-3 in Seattle), Al Groh (2000, 20-16 in Green Bay), Eric Mangini (2006, 23-16 in Tennessee), Rex Ryan (2009, 24-7 in Houston) and Todd Bowles (2015, 31-10 vs. Cleveland). Although times and circumstances change, you can see some similarities to Saleh’s situation. Four of those victories were on the road. Parcels was cleaning up after the Jets ’1-15 season in 1996. Ryan started debutant QB Mark Sanchez, as Saleh does on Sunday with Zach Wilson.
Can the Jets cover themselves up as underestimated against the Panthers, let alone bother them to allow Saleh to join that roster? Offensively, I think there will be a big improvement in the Adam Gase-Sam Darnold disorder. The wide-area running scheme has worked in most places where it has been tested. With some success on the field, Wilson shouldn’t be “behind the chains” so often and will be able to use his athleticism, strong arm and (hopefully) good decision-making to put up some points. He has some capable targets in Corey Davis, Denzel Mims and Elijah Moore, and a potentially solid blindside block with rookie Alijah Vera-Tucker alongside Mekhi Becton.
The defense is expected to be bad, but this is Saleh’s stronghold and he has a block at every level (Quinnen Williams, CJ Mosley and Marcus Maye) to build. And there are enough nasty guys on the line to make things uncomfortable for Darnold, even if there isn’t a real runner.
The third: Jets, +4.
Denver Broncos (-3) above NEW YORK GIANTS
I see the predictions oversimplify this showdown with Von Miller and Bradley Chubb against a terrible Giants offensive line. There’s also the questionable status of Saquon Barkley, the lack of preseason action for Kadarius Toney and the lack of tight ends in the NFL. The Giants defense should be excellent and I hope it’s a low-scoring game where even a small point difference can make a difference. But the pick is the Broncos with new quarterback Teddy Bridgewater, who is 35-14 against the difference in his starting career, according to VSiN’s Josh Appelbaum.
ATLANTA FALCONS (-3.5) over Philadelphia Eagles
Falcons new coach Arthur Smith has Matt Ryan pitching Calvin Ridley and sensational rookie Kyle Pitts, and he will try to use 5-foot 9 and 220-pound Mike Davis as Derrick Henry. Tough tie for Nick Sirianni in his Eagles coaching debut.
Pittsburgh Steelers (+6.5) on BUFFALO BILLS
There are many points to give to Mike Tomlin, who is between 38 and 19 years old, a junior. Pittsburgh has four new starters on the offensive line and Buffalo is my pick to win their first Super Bowl, but I don’t expect that first one to be easy.
CINCINNATI BENGALS (+3) on the Minnesota Vikings
Joe Burrow averaged 268.8 yards per game as a rookie before injury and now has LSU Ja’Marr Chase featured in his arsenal. Hoping the Bengals added enough on defense to face Dalvin Cook and Justin Jefferson.
DETROIT LIONS (+7.5) over the San Francisco 49ers
Welcome to the fraternity Dan, NFL coach (“When you knock us down, we’ll get up and, on the way up, we’ll bite a ballhead”) Campbell! Taking a shot, Campbell will make the Lions shoot because I’m not crazy putting on more than one touchdown with Jimmy Garoppolo.
TENNESSEE TITANS (-3) on Arizona Cardinals
Get used to seeing the Titans as the most popular selection. If you add Julio Jones on offense and Bud Dupree on defense, Mike Vrabel has the firepower to take this team far.
Seattle Seahawks (-2.5) on INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
The summer injuries of Carson Wentz and Quentin Nelson make me skeptical about the Colts ’preparation for the start of the season. Thinking of Pete Carroll will give Russell Wilson a chance to be “DangeRuss” again after curiously reigning him last season.
Los Angeles Chargers (-1) to the Washington football team
The Chargers have a lot of talent and a highly regarded offensive mind in new coach Brandon Staley. Justin Herbert has been preparing for months to face Chase Young and the tough WFT front line and will have his quarterback ready.
HOUSTON TEXANS (+3) on Jacksonville Jaguars
There is often a horrible team that says “how did this happen?” annoying at week 1. Houston is adapting to this bill, but after the injury of Travis Etienne and the debacle of Tim Tebow, there is no guarantee that Urban Meyer and Trevor Lawrence will take the NFL.
Cleveland Browns (+6) on KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
Everyone boasts that the Chiefs solved the offensive line that left Patrick Muhammad untouched in the Super Bowl. Myles Garrett will be the judge … and KC will also have to stop the Browns’ explosive career game.
NINE ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-3) about Miami Dolphins
Bill Belichick stocked up on veterans for this season and has given a lot of work to debutant QB Mac Jones. Tough opening for Tua Tagovailoa, who at 4pm might be wishing the Dolphins had toured the Oene Oregon Penei Sewell.
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (+4.5) on Green Bay Packers
The game moved from New Orleans to Jacksonville after Hurricane Ida hit the Gulf Coast. I expect a solid season from Jameis Winston and I have confidence in Sean Payton to stay within that inflated number.
LOS ANGELES RAMS (-7.5) over Chicago Bears
The Rams were No. 1 in points and gardens allowed in 2020, and Aaron Donald and the passing race will point to the Andy Dalton statue at the opening. If Matthew Stafford is half what the Rams expect, they should win a lot of games this season.
Football Monday night
LAS VEGAS RAIDERS (+4.5) over Baltimore Ravens
Intending to provoke some excitement in prime time, as the Allegiant Stadium (also known as the Death Star) will be filled with fans for the first time. The Ravens will miss RB JK Dobbins, who ran 6.0 yards per carry and got nine touchdowns last year, and backup Gus Edwards, who left practice on Friday with a knee injury.
Best bets: Patriots, Titans, Raiders.
Lock of the week: Patriots. The blockades happened on 4-12-1 in 2020.
Thursday selection: Jeans.