A projection of the current trajectory of Covid-19 cases and the progression of different vaccination plans around the world indicates that the pandemic could end by April, a team of JP Morgan analysts estimated in a report.
In their analysis, financial specialists did not consider as a worrying factor the most contagious variant that has emerged in the UK, which has already spread to dozens of countries.
“The spread of variant B.1.1.7. Is not incompatible with a general decrease in Covid cases and the end of the pandemic in the second quarter, due to vaccination campaigns, natural immunity, seasonality and other factors, ”one analyst wrote in the report, quoted by US media. The report did not address variants detected in South Africa and Brazil.
“While the data set is still small, the statistical analysis on vaccination is consistent with a sharp decrease (i.e., the effective end) of the pandemic to about 40 or 70 days,” he added. This range implies that the target would be reached sometime between late March and late April.
JP Morgan analysts assessed the impact of vaccination campaigns on Covid-19 cases and the rate of spread in areas where the UK variant circulated and did not circulate widely in the United States and the United Kingdom, and went to find that the peak of cases after the holidays in both the United States and the United Kingdom was “almost identical,” although the UK variant had not yet been detected in the American country.
In addition, they noted that cases in Denmark during the same period increased even faster than in the UK and US, and that since then infections in the Nordic country have decreased more rapidly despite the UK variant. United has expanded. Something similar is observed in the states of Florida and California, where new coronavirus cases have dropped since the January peak faster than the national average, although these two states have a higher rate of cases detected of the variant. British.
“This is another example that an increase in cases of variant B.1.1.7 may be consistent with a decrease in general cases (e.g., due to seasonality, vaccination, or natural immunity).” , indicates the report.
The paper also analyzed the progress of vaccination globally. They found that, on average, for every 10% increase in vaccines administered, new cases of Covid-19 have decreased at a rate of 117 per million people. This compares with an average spread of 230 cases of Covid-19 per million people in samples from about 25 countries.
Simply using these two figures and assuming that the current rate of vaccination remains constant, and that social distancing and other preventive measures will remain in place, experts conclude that the end of the pandemic could come as soon as 40 at 70 days.
The analysis of the team contains, however, a series of warnings: the calculation assumes that there will be no setbacks with the launch or supply of vaccines and ignores regional differences in geography, demography and unequal distribution of the same.
But these factors, which could distort the results to make them too optimistic, also have their downside, due to the fact that the current stage of vaccinations around the world is aimed at those over 65, who in turn they have accounted for about half of hospitalizations and about 85% of deaths since the pandemic began. Vaccinating this group is likely to have a much greater incremental impact on the fight against Covid-19 than the next group of people younger and less likely to face disease-related adverse events.
Source: www.infobae.com