Kuo: No significant updates to the iPhone’s main camera lens at least until 2022 [Updated]

The iPhone’s camera lenses may not see major hardware updates until at least 2022, according to a new research note from analyst Ming-Chi Kuo seen by MacRumors.

Today’s note focuses on a new price war between Largan and Genius Electronic Optical lens vendors that will affect vendor profitability, with Genius Electronic Optical at particular risk due to its high reliance on Apple, combined with the Largan’s willingness to cut prices and Sunny Optical’s upcoming entry. in the supply chain of the camera lens ‌iPhone‌.

We predict that Largan will trade the ASP of the mid-high-end lenses ‌iPhone‌ around 15-25% during 1H21 in order to increase its capacity utilization rate. From Yujingguang [Genius Electronic Optical’s] the order ratio, capacity utilization rate, and gross profit margin will be directly affected. The impact of the price war will begin in January 2021 and Yujingguang’s January revenue will only be able to grow by a single digit year-on-year or even decrease.

Kuo specifically predicts that there will be “no significant camera lens upgrades in 2022,” indicating that Genius Electronic Optical’s challenges could extend for several years, unless the structural challenges of the lens industry be significantly improved or Yujingguang can significantly reduce its dependence. by order of Apple “.

Despite Kuo’s prediction that there will be no significant hardware advances for camera lenses in the ‌iphone‌ models for 2021 and 2022, this does not necessarily mean that there will be no improvements in overall camera performance. Apple is also making a considerable effort in terms of the software of its camera features, so we can still see new features and other modifications due to improvements in both the software and other elements of the camera hardware stack. beyond goals.

Update: As he points out 9to5Mac, Kuo’s comments can only refer to the main lens of the camera, as he has previously commented on upcoming updates of the ultra-wide and telephoto lenses. Kuo’s report is not entirely clear which lenses or lenses he is referring to.