An estimated 631,000 Americans will have died from Covid-19 on June 1, according to the latest forecasts from the Institute for Health Metrics and Assessment (IHME) at the University of Washington.
The team behind the influential prediction model said much depends on vaccine implantation and variant distribution. One of the worst cases could bring the death toll to 703,000.
“The balance between the spread of new variants and the increase in associated transmission and the expansion of vaccination in our scenario most likely suggests a continued decline in daily deaths until June 1,” he said. .
As of Thursday night, the United States had reported more than 455,000 deaths from Covid-19, according to data from Johns Hopkins University.
The IHME cited a survey showing an increase in the number of Americans willing to be vaccinated, from 54% to 66%.
“Daily deaths have reached their peak and are declining. On June 1, 2021, we project that 123,600 lives will be saved thanks to the projected launch of the vaccine, ”said the IHME.
How to save more lives: If 95% of Americans wore masks, 44,000 more lives would be saved, the IHME said. Currently, the use of masks is around 77%.
And people should remain in position even if they have been vaccinated, the IHME said. If vaccinated people start moving and traveling normally, 17 states could increase daily deaths again in April and May.
“The best strategies to manage this period of pandemic are the rapid expansion of vaccination, the continued and expanded monitoring of the use of masks and joint efforts to prevent rebound mobility in vaccinated people. Some states lift mandates quickly, which carries a real risk of increased transmission as new variants spread and vaccination rates remain relatively low, ”the IHME warned.