There’s a long list of intriguing elements in the Sunday 2021 Super Bowl between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Kansas City Chiefs.
Of course, there’s the quarterback showdown between 43-year-old Tom Brady, playing in his 10th Super Bowl and trying to win his seventh ring, and 25-year-old Patrick Mahomes, who wants to become the youngest quarterback to win multiple Super Bowling Titles.
There are crunchy coaches. Bruce Arians, a footballer from Paterson, New Jersey, who is head coach in the Super Bowl for the first time at 68 years old. He faced 62-year-old Andy Reid, who could never win the big one with some very good Eagles and The Chiefs teams and now have a chance to lift the Vince Lombardi Trophy for the second year in a row.
There are a lot of star strengths, like Mike Evans, Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce. And there are veterans who have traveled various NFL roads, both light and dark, from Jason Pierre-Paul to Ndamukong Suh to Antonio Brown to Rob Gronkowski and Le’Veon Bell, among others.
But for me, as I tried to slow down this game, the most intriguing thing about this Super Bowl was the spread of the point. The New York Post’s Bettor’s Guide uses the line provided by BetMGM starting Thursday evening. This selection originally appeared in the Friday editions of The Post. At the time, BetMGM ranked the Chiefs as a 3.5-point favorite with an Over / Under of 56.5. The vig, or juice, was -105 to Chiefs -3.5 and -115 to Buccaneers +3.5. This suggested that the next line move would be to 3, removing the half-point “hook”. The BetMGM line had remained stable in these issues for over a week after the book opened in that issue, left it at Chiefs -3 after some strong first bets, and then regained the hook early last week.
Why is it interesting?
Looking at the aggregate of sportsbook lines at nypost.com, VSiN.com and VegasInsider.com, only Las Vegas Mirage stations and Mirage were with BetMGM at Chiefs -3.5 starting Thursday evening. The rest of the books (including William Hill, Wynn, Golden Nugget, DraftKings, and the Westgate SuperBook) included the Chiefs -3 with beams at -115 or -120. All those books had been shaken on the verge of raising the line to 3.5, but they seemed hesitant to hand the “hook” to Bucs’ sponsors.
(As a section, bettors who go to the sports betting window or bet on mobile apps can go down at any point difference they want to bet. For example, at BetMGM, Chiefs sponsors can win 3 points, but they should pay -115 vig (instead of getting money equal to -3.5) Ships bettors can get -105 to +3, -120 to +3.5 and -125 to +4.In fact, you can bet for any equipment between +17.5 and -17.5 if you are willing to accept the juice).
Here, however, the selection has to do with the difference at the time and I came up with the idea from this market analysis that the extra midpoint is extremely valuable. My thoughts were confirmed on Friday when all the sports books that had been at 3.5 reduced their lines to three. Even more interesting was the news that Houston furniture store mogul Jim “Mattress Mack” McIngvale had bet $ 3.46 million on Bucs +3.5. It bought the additional midpoint at -127 vig, meaning it will earn $ 2.72 million.
The Chiefs defeated the Buccaneers, Nov. 27-24, on Nov. 29 in Tampa. Kansas City was a 3.5-point favorite at pitching, according to covers.com, and pitched to a 17-0 lead in the first quarter with 75- and 44-yard touchdown passes from Muhammad to Hill. Hill would take a 20-yard touchdown pass to increase the KC 27-10 in the middle of the third quarter, part of his unstoppable 13 receptions for 269 yards. But in the end, the Buccaneers covered the gap, by the hook margin, as Brady found Evans for 31- and 7-yard touchdowns in the fourth quarter.
Does the regular season meeting between these teams mean anything now or does it predict how Sunday will go?
In this postseason, the Buccaneers avenged two double-digit defeats against the Saints with a 30-20 victory in the divisional round. They then followed up their 38-10 final at the Packers ’home in Week 6 by beating Green Bay, 31-26, in the NFC Championship.
The Chiefs have had a rematch this postseason, beating the Bills 38-24 in the AFC Championship after winning 26-17 at Orchard Park in Week 6. So it’s a mixed bag, but if you decide to see twice the Buccaneers – Come to the victory over the Saints as an atypical value, you can conclude that the results of the regular season and the postseason rematch have been quite similar for the two Super Bowl contestants.
Handicapper Adam Chernoff wrote an interesting deep dive into the lessons of the first Chiefs-Buccaneers game on VSiN.com. He noted that this season, the Buccaneers shot 39 percent of the time, the fifth-highest rate in the NFL. But against the Chiefs, defensive coordinator Todd Bowles chose to send additional pass runners just 17% of the time. Muhammad still threw 462 yards against this overly cautious and uncharacteristic Bucs defense.
Addressing this game, Arians talks about his “No Risk, No Cookies” philosophy. I suppose I would like to bring the Buccaneers ’normal aggressive and dazzling defense into the game and see what happens that way. Vita Vea, Tampa Bay’s massive 347-pound defensive attack, missed the first meeting. He has returned now, and his presence will free the runners and blitzers to pursue Muhammad. It’s about the absence of left-wing Eric Fisher injuries and general wear and tear on the Kansas City offensive line, and you can see how this could turn out to be a tough day for Muhammad, even if there will be opportunity to make great plays.
I would not be surprised if Muhammad found a way to achieve victory. But coming in, I look forward to another close match between these teams and I think that extra half point I was lucky enough to get due to a good time could end up important.
Super Bowl 2021
Buccaneers +3.5 and under 56.5.
2021 Super Bowl prediction
Caps, 26-23.
Championship Sunday: 0-2 against differential, 1-1 Over / Under