Nicolas Maduro, President of Venezuela, and Cilia Flores, First Lady of Venezuela, arrive at the National Assembly in Caracas on January 12, 2021.
Photographer: Carlos Becerra / Bloomberg
Photographer: Carlos Becerra / Bloomberg
Long ridiculed as a seat warmer, Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro emerges as a ruthless man: he deflects pressure from the United States, purges rivals, seizes his son, his wife and his trusted aides, and lets them flow. dollars to keep its battered economy from collapsing.
The result is that the man who was thought to be the decayed face of Chavismo — the move received by his magnetic predecessor, Hugo Chávez — is now the robust head of what is increasingly called maturity.
“Maduro has been underestimated, including within Chavismo, and has managed to surprise and defeat his enemies inside and out,” Caracas political analyst Dimitris Pantoulas said. “It has placed people of confidence in the most influential positions, replacing those who could challenge their power.”
Except for foreign intervention, an increasingly remote possibility, Maduro is likely to remain at the helm in Venezuela in the foreseeable future. As you sleep, the nature of maturity becomes clearer. A United Nations Last September’s report referred to extrajudicial killings and arbitrary detentions, accusing the regime of “crimes against humanity,” a charge the government rejected.
After the elections rigged in December, Maduro snatched the nation’s congress – and the last democratic body – from the head of the opposition, backed by the United States, Juan Guaido, and appointed right-wing leader Jorge Rodriguez . His son, Nicolas Jr., and his wife Cilia Flores, secured positions as legislators.
As Venezuela’s economy shrank for the seventh consecutive year in 2020, the socialist leader encouraged unofficial dollarization and loosened control of the private sector. It allowed more than $ 2 billion to be raised, some in nascent form economy of luxury dollars and others in remittances of the 5 million who have fled the country, helping it to maneuver around the US that on their oil and a blockade of their nation’s assets abroad.
Low pass grades
It has done it all with approval ratings below 15%. His opponents are rapidly losing strength, with street protests fading despite the collapse of basic goods and services in a country that was once one of the richest in the world. Oil exports, with historic lows, are rising again.
Allies, such as Vice President Delcy Rodriguez, Jorge’s sister, are on the rise while challengers, including Diosdado Cabello, are out of the game.
A retired army lieutenant and former vice president who joined Chávez in a failed coup in 1992, Cabello led the all-powerful assembly until Maduro ordered its dissolution last year. Cabello now retains the largely symbolic role of the second in command of the Socialist Party and its organizer in Congress. Cabello did not respond to any requests for comment.
Meanwhile, Nicolas Jr. took control of the party’s junior group, according to two sources with direct knowledge of the matter. Vice President Rodriguez has also been named finance minister, a rare dual role.
Aside
Other people close to Chávez, such as former Education Minister Elias Jaua, have seen their careers thwarted. Jaua was slammed after proposing more democratic methods for decision-making and the election of party officials, according to three people with knowledge of the issue. He is now a university professor. He did not respond to any requests for comment.
Maduro is also said to have forcibly displaced Major General Miguel Rodriguez Torres, a former justice minister and head of Chávez’s intelligence police. He was jailed in 2018, accused by a military court of treason and instigation to rebel after criticizing the government and creating a rival party with Chavista roots, according to members of his party. He continues in prison at Fort Tiuna, the country’s military barracks.
Governing party lawmaker Francisco Torrealba, who met Maduro while they both worked on public transportation in the early 1990s, acknowledges that many were skeptical of Maduro after Chávez’s death eight years ago. “Today,” he said, “no one doubts the great skills and political wisdom that the president has managed to develop.”
Maduro has maintained close key military allies, including Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino, the most senior officer in his role.
“The military structure will always lean towards who controls most centers of power,” said Javier Biardeau, a sociologist and professor at the Central University of Venezuela.
Under Maduro, military leaders have won major government contracts and mining concessions, in addition to controlling ports and the state oil company. More recently, they have seized gas stations across the country as U.S. sanctions tighten the country, which has the world’s largest oil reserves, with almost no gasoline, leading to endless lines where agents review the credentials of the pump drivers.
Foreign sponsors
Maduro’s foreign sponsors, including China, Iran and Russia, continue to play a key role: helping sell millions of barrels of Venezuelan heavy crude under disguised, sending much needed fuel and goods in exchange for gold and even agreeing to send millions of Sputnik-V shots to immunize the nation.
Although Guaido retains some global support, the opposition remains divided and devoid of ideas, weakening his stance as Maduro sinks and as more opposition politicians are forced into exile, imprisoned or legally separated. .
Although previous attempts to negotiate a political end to the crisis have failed, a segment of the opposition hopes to restart talks ahead of this year’s municipal and state elections.
Political change in the US could also help Maduro. Donald Trump highlighted Venezuela and its alliance with Cuba and Nicaragua to put pressure. President Joe Biden is expected to seek accommodation with Cuba. And while his main aides have made it clear that they consider Maduro to be a dictator, they have also expressed interest in modifying some of the sanctions.